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THE GLOBAL ENERGY PERSPECTIVE

Jan Murray

Deputy Secretary General,

World Energy Council

Conference on: A Swedish EnergyStrategy for Global Competitiveness

Stockholm, 3 March 2005

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Energy price drivers:

1. Rising demand

2. Capacity & resource constraints

3. Environmental costs

4. Fossil fuel alternatives

5. Energy conservation6. Demographics

7. Economic growth

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Energy price drivers:

1. Rising demand

2. Capacity & resource constraints

3. Environmental costs

4. Fossil fuel alternatives

5. Energy conservation6. Demographics

7. Economic growth

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Oil prices and Chinese Imports

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Middle East Oil Exports by destination: 2002

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Asia Europe USA Africa

Source: BP Yearbook 

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Energy price drivers:

1. Rising demand

2. Capacity & resource constraints

3. Environmental costs

4. Fossil fuel alternatives

5. Energy conservation6. Demographics

7. Economic growth

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US OIL PRODUCTION 1900-2000

0

1

2

3

4

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

   B   I   L

   L   I   O   N   S   B   A   R   R   E   L

   S   P   E   R

   Y   E   A   R

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NORTH AMERICA (US/CANADA/MEXICO) NATURAL GASAnnual productions vs. discoveries shifted by 20 years

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

raw production

(wet gas)

total dryproduction

dry production less

unconvent.

mean discoveries20-year shifted

Jean Laherrère

February 2003

Tcf/year 

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Energy price drivers:

1. Rising demand

2. Capacity & resource constraints

3. Environmental costs4. Fossil fuel alternatives

5. Energy conservation6. Demographics

7. Economic growth

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Energy price drivers:

1. Rising demand

2. Capacity & resource constraints

3. Environmental costs

4. Fossil fuel alternatives

5. Energy conservation6. Demographics

7. Economic growth

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Energy price drivers:

1. Rising demand

2. Capacity & resource constraints

3. Environmental costs4. Fossil fuel alternatives

5. Energy conservation6. Demographics

7. Economic growth

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WORLD ENERGY-RELATED SERVICES 1971-2000

0,0

500,0

1000,0

1500,0

2000,0

2500,0

3000,0

3500,0

10000 20000 30000 40000

StationaryUses

Mobility (oilonly)

ElectricityOutput

GDP PPP

Mtoe

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Energy price drivers:

1. Rising demand

2. Capacity & resource constraints

3. Environmental costs4. Fossil fuel alternatives

5. Energy conservation6. Demographics

7. Economic growth

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WORLD POPULATION - UN SCENARIOS

0

4

8

12

1950 2000 2050

   B   I   L   L   I   O   N

   P   E   O   P   L   E

High

fertility variant 

Mediumfertility variant 

Low fertility variant 

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Energy price drivers:

1. Rising demand

2. Capacity & resource constraints

3. Environmental costs4. Fossil fuel alternatives

5. Energy conservation6. Demographics

7. Economic growth

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WORLD 1850-2000

TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY REQUIREMENTS

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

0 10000 20000 30000 40000

GDP PPP (after Maddison prior to 1950 and corrected for China since 1978)

   M   T   O   E

   (   O .   R

  e   i  c   h   f  o  r   1   8   5   0  -   1   9   7

   0 ,   t   h  e  n   A   I   E

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WORLD OFFICIAL GROWTH RATES

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

First oil shock

Second twin

oil shockCounter 

oil shock

Kuwait

invasion

China

coal

crisis

Price rise

to 25 $/b