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Prof. Ian Phillips Principal Staff Eng’r,

ARM Ltd ian.phillips@arm.com

Visiting Prof. at ...

Contribution to Industry Award 2008

eFutures Future Workshop British Library, London

4dec13

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SlideCast and pdf available via http://ianp24.blogspot.co.uk/

Opinions expressed are those of the author alone

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Electronic Systems Today -

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Electronic Systems Today -

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All UK Electronic Companies failed

The UK FABs all left or died

Electronic Innovation is all in America

Electronic Manufacture is all in China

Any business in Electronics in the UK .... is just working-out the remains of failed industries

The UK lost every aspect of the Electronic opportunity ... so investing Tax£ in it today is just a waste of money

ARM is an interesting exception; but it is ... Non scalable; Non repeatable; Incomprehensible

... ESCO was created to refute this perception with facts !

The British Culture of Failure ...

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ESCO Established ... The UK Electronic Systems Community ...

2.9% of Employment; 5.4% of the Economy (~2x productivity!)

On par with other strategically important industries ... GDP: Automotive (0.7%), Aerospace (0.4%), Construction (8%)

Creative (3%), Pharma/Bio (0.6%) , Tourism (9%), Universities (2.3%)

A story of UK Success! ... despite neglect and prejudice! ... We are an Unrecognised, Uncoordinated Community

... with Huge Potential do deliver much-more!

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ESCO Also Pointed Out ... The Strategic Importance of Electronic Systems to the

ongoing health of the UK Economy.

The importance and practicality of establishing International Mutual Co-Dependence in Electronic Systems Technologies That Electronic Systems are actually all global products To avoid national dependency, we need to develop our National Capabilities

and their abilities to supply into their life-cycles The technology and business involved are beyond understanding of most

non-technically educated; but no less viable as a businesses because of this

The UK is in a surprisingly good place in Electronic Systems today; but we can lose that if it continues to be neglected here ...

... Recognise and Value the UK ES Community and it will return the favour many fold.

... But it is a 21c child; it will succeed here ... or elsewhere!

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The UK Electronic Systems Community Electronic System are Human-Level Product whose Functionality

fundamentally rests on the Electronic Technology (ies) beneath.

You are part of the UK Electronic Systems Community, if :- You have a UK Footprint (Your UK people are in the UK-ESC) You work in some part of the science, technology or technical life-cycle of

Electronic Systems; their methods, components and manufacture. Except their overt Exploitation or direct Maintenance.

Including Fundamental Science, Manufacturing and Tech. Support. All technologies: Hardware, embedded-software; analogue, digital; optical,

rf; systems, architecture; metrology and equipment; technical support; etc Your Department if its work otherwise qualifies as Electronic Systems;

though your Industry or Institution is known primarily for something else.

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Moore’s Law ... 10nm

100nm

1um

10um

100um

Appr

oxim

ate

Proc

ess

Geo

met

ry

ITRS’99

Tran

sist

ors/

Chi

p (M

)

Tran

sist

or/P

M (K

)

X

... x More Functionality on a Si Chip in 20 yrs!

Gordon Moore. Founder of Intel. (1965)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore’s_law

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Research within a Thriving Economy As this UK Sector is not a Basket Case; it matters that it has an

working access to Science and Technology that it needs ... Before a company commences actual Product Design ...

... it must know that it can succeed!

It needs Knowledge, and Installed Capabilities in all of the many domains that it will traverse en-route to a Successful Product Industrial Research identifies and provides answers to these issues ... From the Known-Set and Unknown-Set (1-3yr)

How others do it (Conferences, published papers, espionage, etc) Specialist Tools and Training Licence, Purchase, Employ (People) or Acquire (Viable, small businesses)

It needs to see beyond this ... Primarily from the Unknown-Set (3-5yr) Fundamental Research (Science ... Predictable, useful fundamentals)

... But 5+ years is beyond its threshold of caring!

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Our Orthogonal Motivations

Their-Market ; not A-Market (ie not defined by others)

Output is Commercially Viable Product Industries can’t change their spots overnight Charity and Society is a nice concept

NOT Commercial objectives Output is Science (Tending towards Technology) Prof’s can’t change their spots overnight Exploitation is a messy distraction

...There is a Chasm of understanding between all three groups

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There are Markets and Markets Gov. Says: “Societies Challenges are a Great Market Opportunity” Always being told this; but it is not strictly true ... The biggest actual markets are not been predicted by Governments Though driven by Societal need, the biggest market developments today

(Internet, Tablets and IoT) are not aligned with Societies Challenges! They will be where Gov. spends lots of money to address Market Failure where there’s money there is opportunity but the best “Business Opportunities” will probably occur in a myriad of cross-

cutting technologies that are *also* applicable to Societies Challenges. ... These are Vectors of Market Direction; Business chooses its own!

Similarly Gov. are not the best people to direct research! But alas, they hold your Purse-Strings (In case you hadn’t noticed!) So now we have to help them see that what you do is an important part

of the UK’s ES Ecosystem. ... And to do that we (both) have to understand more about each other!

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Markets provide the Business Opportunities

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Milli

ons

of U

nits

1st Era Select work

tasks

2nd Era Broad-based computing

for specific tasks

3rd Era Computing as part

of our lives

... Remember; the End-Customer actually funds the whole life-cycle.

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ARM in the Electronic Systems Market

1998 2012 2020

40+ billion CPUs to date

150+ billion CPUs cumulative by 2020

http://www.arm.com/

8.7B CPUs shipped in 2012 (Growing 20%pa.pa)

75% of the things connected to the Internet today are ARM Powered! Gartner

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The Chasm twixt Research and Innovation Research <= Chasm => Innovation (Product) Implies that Research outcomes become a Product when they are ‘developed’ ... WRONG The obvious ‘cure’; drive your national Research base closer to national Exploitation base The truth is more complex; and so is the ‘cure’ ...

Science <= Gap => Technology <= Gap => Capability <= Gap => Product Science – Established Predictable Fundamental Behaviour Technology – Something Useful in the creation or reproduction of a Product Capability – Installed Technology (Ready for mission-critical use) Product – Something that a Customer exchanges for his/her actual money

In reality Single-Sciences seldom map to Single-Products ...

... And Single-Products inevitably depend on Many-Sciences

Product Capability Capability Capability Capability

Capability Capability Capability

Technology Technology

Technology Science Science Science Science

Science

Science Science

Gap

s

Gap

s

Gap

s

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Packing ‘Technology’ into an iCon

Analogue and Digital Design Embedded Software Mechanics, Plastics and Glass Micro-Machines (MEMs) Displays and Transducers Robotics and Test Knowledge and Know-How Research, Education and Training Components, Sub-Systems and Systems;

Design, Assembly and Manufacture Metrology, Methodology and Tools ... Involving Many Specialist Businesses

... Round and Round the World ...Not-Least from The UK

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The Chasm twixt Research and Innovation

Industry ... Avoids gaps by using Known Sci/Tech/Cap as far as possible Only does gap-filling if doing so brings quantifiable benefit to the Product Avoids gaps to-the-left (Too far from quantifiable return) Innovation is about using what you already know how to do (no gaps!)

aka (20c) “Sweat your assets”

Academia ... Anticipate the best potential Business uses of a Science; whatever and wherever Quantify the Value of a Science when used in particular Product life-cycle Establish the Business contacts; and bridge the early-stage gaps for its evaluation

... Look for Order of Magnitude improvement over the status-quo!

Product Capability Capability Capability Capability

Capability Capability Capability

Technology Technology

Technology Science Science Science Science

Science

Science Science

Gap

s

Gap

s

Gap

s

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Universities need Industry ... To guide the Direction and Exploitation of research programs ... Not necessarily for those specific Businesses' interests. Nor necessarily for UK Industries

To help fund the research ... 100% funded (always the favourite) Part-Sponsored (eg: iCASE or other studentship scheme) Support for National Funding (eg: Support for EPSRC Responsive proposals) Strategic Relationship values (ie: Association with a certain business)

Remember ... >95%1 of Exploitation opportunities are outside the UK Don’t over-hype what you have (It is usually Science =>Technology) Industry is always short-sighted (It can misdirect, mislead or misuse you) Your local GDP contribution is ∝ to the people you employ locally

... Nothing wrong with maximising the UK-GDP component 1: Based on UK% of global GDP

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... Industry needs Universities To guide Industrial Expectations of emerging science Industry doesn’t always know where the science/technology is going

In the portfolio providing Answers ahead of its Product needs ... Researching the Known and Unknown Sets ... Purchase, Licence, Contract ..for.. Tools, Methods, Objects Educate, Build, Acquire, Employ ..for.. Business, Know-How and Knowledge

-------------------------------------

In-House ..for.. Strategic technology and short-term needs (Few/££££) Partnering ..for.. Market building and less-strategic technology (Med/££) Basic ..for.. Longer-term, broad-issues, non-strategic technology (Lots/£)

Remember ... The closer to product the more valuable the service That 99% of Universities are outside the UK (Answers matter, not sources) That Industry also contributes to GDP by its Employment (local and global)

... Nothing wrong with maximising the UK-GDP component

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... Industry also needs Universities To provide Education of and for its Employees First Degrees (inc Masters and Doctorates) get you going ... They give you the Language and the Context for starting a Career But as Careers develop, people need to be trained and re-trained to

undertake the, work expected of them/the career path they chose

Universities have the opportunity to provide Initial training Leading-Edge postgraduate training, aligned with their Research Can be via employment pathways or courses Leaving Commercial enterprises to look after the mid-ground

Industry needs people who can do ‘the work’ Formal qualifications are not a prerequisite Education only increases the probability that you will be suited to a new role

... Engineering is a life of challenge and a life of learning; enjoy!

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Electronic Systems COmmunity

You ARE an Important Part of this UK Community ESCO gives US ... Identity, Societal Value, Community and Voice The new ESCO Council – Provides an Executive-Level Steering group

The new ESCO Executive – Provides the Delivery-Vehicle

Working Groups - Will be formed to address issues

... You will all have plenty of opportunity to participate

http://www.esco.org.uk/

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Conclusions The UK has a strong and vibrant Electronics Systems Community Employing ~850k people, in ~35,000 businesses and contributing ~5% to UK GDP. Many tales of Successful Evolution from their 20c predecessors (dinosaurs) Believe it ... You are a significant part of it!

Electronic Systems Community (ESCO) Gives us an Identity but also Societal Value, Community and Voice The Council and the Executive are just up and running Your opportunity to get involved will be coming soon

For Your and the Communities sake ... Grasp it with both hands

Because UK-ES is not a Basket Case it matters that it Develops We must demonstrate (to Gov) that Industry needs Academia and vice-versa And we must make the relationship work (For the benefit of the UK) To do that, we must all work to understand ... Each other ..and.. The nature and life-cycle of Products

... Based on a Culture of Success! (Difficult for reticent Brits)

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