a strategic market outlook for regional us ferrous scrap ... · a strategic market outlook for...

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A Strategic Market Outlook for Regional US Ferrous Scrap to 2021 l Which US scrap regions are growing and which are facing depleting reservoirs? l How will ferrous scrap prices change over time? l What are the intra-regional scrap trade flows within the US, and what will this mean to scrap suppliers? New and Exclusive for 2014

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Page 1: A Strategic Market Outlook for Regional US Ferrous Scrap ... · A Strategic Market Outlook for Regional ... pig iron and DRI/HBI. ... occasionaly to alow companies outside our group

A Strategic MarketOutlook for Regional US Ferrous Scrap to 2021

lWhich US scrap regions are growing and which are facing depleting reservoirs?

l How will ferrous scrap prices change over time?

lWhat are the intra-regional scrap trade flows within the US, and what will this mean to scrap suppliers?

Newand Exclusivefor 2014

Page 2: A Strategic Market Outlook for Regional US Ferrous Scrap ... · A Strategic Market Outlook for Regional ... pig iron and DRI/HBI. ... occasionaly to alow companies outside our group

Future concerns for the US scrap marketOver the past few months, the over capacity of shredders within the US has reduced the price premiumshredded scrap commands over HMS grades down from $30/tonne to around $15/tonne, at the time ofwriting. Meanwhile, the busheling price margin over shredded has returned to within its traditional range.

However, beyond these short-term considerations lies the fact that the US scrap industry is facing acrisis of profitability, quality requirements to best meet domestic steelmaker requirements and changesto the availability and price dynamics of alternative metallics. Over the next ten years, merger andacquisition activity will intensify as the internal landscape will also undergo significant changes in termsof trade flows, recovery and transaction prices.

What is the future outlook for the USferrous scrap industry?This new scrap report follows on from the highly successful US State-by-State Steel study (published in July 2013) that focused on steelconsumption in the US between 1994 and 2021.

AMM Research has conducted a fully independent research study on the US scrap industry by producttype out to 2021, which aims to bring never seen before market intelligence vital to the interests of bothscrap buyers and sellers.

This brand new study is the most detailed and comprehensive examination of the US ferrous scrapmarket providing detailed analysis and data broken down for 14 key US regions.

Each US region is evaluated on a standalone basis to best understand historic, current andforecast supply and demand dynamics (1996-2021).

A Strategic Market Outlook for RegionalUS Ferrous Scrap to 2021

Newand Exclusivefor 2014

lUnique analysis of how topredict and understandUS scrap prices –nationally and regionally

lHow regional crude steelproduction dynamics willaffect current and futurescrap prices

lHow intra-regional scraprecovery rates and tradeflows by product type willchange going forward

lHow serious the issue ofscrap quality will be onthe industry

lHow scrap will relate topig iron and DRI/HBI

Page 3: A Strategic Market Outlook for Regional US Ferrous Scrap ... · A Strategic Market Outlook for Regional ... pig iron and DRI/HBI. ... occasionaly to alow companies outside our group

The study details the following in termsof providing analysis, data and forecasts(out to 2021) for the following:

US scrap consumption (including EAF, oxygen furnace,iron foundry and blast furnace enrichment)

US scrap recovery• Revert

• Prompt

• Obsolete (including newly obsolete)

Scrap trade – Net inter-regional US trade by region

A detailed scrap reservoir model

A fully dynamic and “open-source” forecasting scrapmarket model to run your own “what if scenarios” tochanging parameters

A comprehensive historic and forecast ferrous scrapprices database which includes:

• No1 Bundles

• No1 Bushelings

• Auto Shredded

• No1 Heavy

In the following areas:

• Birmingham, Alabama

• Chicago, Illinois

• Charlotte, North Carolina

• Cleveland, Ohio

• Detroit, Michigan

• Houston, Texas

• Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

• St Louis, Missouri

Key analysis of all US regional ferrousscrap markets

A key feature of this report is its regional focus on theferrous scrap markets broken out by the following:

• Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire,New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont

• Pennsylvania

• Illinois

• Indiana

• Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, South Dakota, Wisconsin

• Michigan

• Ohio

• Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia

• Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina

• Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, Tennessee

• Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma

• Texas

• Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Utah

• California, Oregon, Washington

For each US region, the report provides analysis anddata (1996-2021) for the following:

• Scrap consumption

• Scrap generation (split between revert (home), promptand obselete)

• Scrap recovery

• Scrap imports and exports

• Net interregional scrap trade

• Scrap reservoir – specifically designed to identifywhich areas have growing supply and which havenearly exhausted reservoirs

“Undeniably Metal Bulletin Research is an information provider throwing an objective light on often bifurcated information. Essential!” Krista Van Bergen, SteelFORCE Asia NV

Page 4: A Strategic Market Outlook for Regional US Ferrous Scrap ... · A Strategic Market Outlook for Regional ... pig iron and DRI/HBI. ... occasionaly to alow companies outside our group

To order please call the hotline 212 224 3577 or email [email protected]

Number of U.S. ScrapShredders by State

3

3

7

1

4

3

2

6

11

1

4

4

26

58

7

3

8 10

17

6

1213

7

139

1053

17

7

2

9

7

Scrap consumptionrates in the US by region

0 - 3,000

3,001 - 6,000

6,001 - 9,000

9,001 - 12,000

12,001 - 15,000

Number ofshredders

Key:

Key:

Page 5: A Strategic Market Outlook for Regional US Ferrous Scrap ... · A Strategic Market Outlook for Regional ... pig iron and DRI/HBI. ... occasionaly to alow companies outside our group

Please call the hotline 212 224 3577 or email [email protected] request complimentary sample pages

Newand Exclusivefor 2014

B. Levich – Consultancy & Special ProjectsDirector of Metal Bulletin ResearchBrian covers the global steel and raw material sectors in detail. Hehas written numerous major reports on the global steel, rawmaterials, and finished product industries and has done extensiveconsultancy and market research work for a number of major steelproducers and consumers as well as for financial institutions.

A. Craig – Principal ConsultantAlexander is principal consultant with Metal Bulletin Researchfocusing on the global metals and mining industries. He hasworked for both McKinsey & Company and Accenture. Craigstudied economics at the University of Cambridge, where he tooka First Class degree. He subsequently undertook postgraduatestudy at MIT in econometrics and public finance.

R. Egge – Principal ConsultantWith over 18 years of experience as a strategic consultant for theglobal metals/mining industry, Mr Egge has worked at Arthur D.Little, Accenture and Deloitte. He has significant experience inhelping metals and mining clients identify, quantify, prioritize andcapture value creation opportunities. While at Arthur D Little heworked hand and hand with the C-suite of an integrated metalscompany in the United States to develop a business case for thedevelopment of raw material reserves. Russell has a degree inMaterials and Metallurgical Engineering from the University ofMichigan (Ann Arbor Michigan) and a Masters Science inInternational Management from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute(Hartford Connecticut).

Biographers/authors of the US ferrous scrap study

About AMM ResearchAMM Research is the leading independent supplier of market intelligence and pricing to the North American metals industries andpublisher of the widely-used reference prices for scrap. American Metal Market (AMM), was founded in 1882, over its long history hasestablished itself as the unrivaled leader in metals news and pricing in North America. AMM and sister publication Metal Bulletin are part ofthe Euromoney Institutional Investor Plc.

AMM Research (known as Metal Bulletin Research outside the US) is the independent market research and consultancy arm. Utilizing ourteam of US consultants and economists based in Pittsburgh, Washington and Boston, AMM Research has conducted the most exhaustiveand informative study on the US scrap industry availably anywhere.

Page 6: A Strategic Market Outlook for Regional US Ferrous Scrap ... · A Strategic Market Outlook for Regional ... pig iron and DRI/HBI. ... occasionaly to alow companies outside our group

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YOUR COMPANY TYPERaw Material Supply (0003)Metal/Steel Production/Processing (0027)Fabrication/Manufacturing(0055)Distribution (0095)Services/Products for theIndustry (0111)End-User Sector (0167)

Finance Companies (0271)Production (0275)Processing & Equipment (0279)Trading (0287)Transport – Ports (0291)Non-Ferrous Foundry (0303)Extruding (0311)Other Primary Metal Products(0315)

Ferrous Traders (0319)Non-Ferrous Traders (0323)Resource/Asset Recovery(0327)Library/Research (0321)Trade Association (0525)Legal/Regulations (0155)Government (0253)

YOUR METALS INTERESTBase Metals (11001)Aluminium (11002)Downstream Aluminium (11157)Precious Metals (11160)Minor Metal (11267)Light Metals (11360)Steel (12001)

Steel Tube & Pipe – Seamless(12042)Steel Tube & Pipe – Welded(12043)Stainless Steel (12159)Steel Wire (12230)Galvanising & Coated Coil(12226)

Ferro Alloys (13000)Scrap & Secondary Metals(14000)Steelmaking Raw Materials(12231)Iron Ore (12232)

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A Strategic Outlook tothe Global Ferrous ScrapIndustry out to 2021

Other relevant Metal Bulletin Research publications include:• A Strategic Outlook for the Global Ferrous Scrap Industry out to 2021• Steel Scrap & Metallics Forecaster• A New Age for Steel Metallics: for Obsolete Scrap, Prompt Industrial Scrap, Home (Revert) Scrap, Pig Iron,DRI/HBI and Iron Ore• Steel Raw Materials: Weekly Market Tracker• Steel: Weekly Market Tracker• Shareholder Value in the US Steel Industry A Critical Framework to Drive Future Company Performance• Coking Coal: A Strategic Market Outlook to 2020• A Strategic Market Review and Outlook for the Middle East and North African Steel Industry to 2020• Mining five years of iron ore data• Global Steel Cost Service• Steelmaking Capacity and Capex Study

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