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ASOLUTIONTOTHEINTRACTABLEPROBLEMSOFCOALMININGINTHE

LIVERPOOLPLAINS

DrBoydDirkBlackwellPrincipalResearchLeader(ECVM)

CRCRemoteEconomicPar>cipa>on,UNEBusinessSchool,Armidale

Presenta(ontotheNewEnglandEnergyFuturesForum,21May2016,UNE,Armidale

PolicyContext:TheEndofCoal?•  Someminesclosingothersbeginning–localtoglobalscaleofchange

•  Physicalandeconomiclimitstothecon>nueduseofnon-renewablesacrossthesescales–  includingsocialandenvironmentallimitswiththesebroaderaspectswhichareinculcatedintooureconomicsystemsthroughinsEtuEonse.g.•  Marketsincl.marketmechanisms,pricing,taxesetc.•  regula>on,lawandcompliance•  Ministerialapprovals

*Thegreatestpossiblegoodforthegreatestnumberofindividuals

Aretheseenoughandaretheyservingthecommongood*?

hUp://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=4390

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JevonsParadox,1865•  TheCoalQues(on;AnInquiryConcerningTheProgressOfTheNa(on,AndTheProbableExhaus(onOfOurCoal-mines

AlfredMarshall1878,DuringtheIndustrialRevolu>on

•  ‘Whenatlastnaturegainstheday,asiteventuallymust,inotherwords,wheneconomieshereceasetocheapenprices,orpreventpricesfrombecomingdearer,andbegintoactontheconsumpEonsoastoreduceit,theendofthecoal-produc>onofGreatBritainonthegreatscalewillalreadyhavebegun’

(Marshall1878,p.324)

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AlfredMarshall1878•  ‘Thiscountry'sfortunesare

graduallybeingmergedinthoseofagreaterBritain,which,largelythroughtheaidofthecoalwhoseprospec>velosswearelamen>ng,hasgrownbeyondthelimitsoftheseislandstooverspreadthevastestandrichestregionsoftheearth;norhaveweanyreasontofearthatthegreatinheritancewhichAmericaandAustraliaandNewZealandhavethusacceptedfromuswill,intheirhands,bedealtwithunworthily.’(Marshall1878,p.349)

Marshall’sKeyQues>on•  Focusonthecommercialwaste–whatIhavesynthesizedto

callcommercialdriversfortheendofcoalratherthanthephysicaldrivers.

•  Physicaldrivers(Marshallcalledphysicalwaste)arenotenough–technologycanreducethecostandopenupsupply

•  Incontrast,commercialdrivers–desireforprofit–thelevelofdemandandpricewilldeterminewhenandwheretheendofcoal(ormoreaptly,endofamine)isnear

•  ThisthereforerequirescompeEEveandcheapformsofenergysupply–  includingtheincorpora>onofsocialcostsandbenefits–  HoweverNB:JevonsParadox

Arethese

assessedfairly

anddoesthe

processservethe

commongood?

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•  ABARE,mul>pleuse•  InLiverpoolPlainscasethereis

poten>allynomul>pleandsequen>alusewhereminingcomesfirstinthesequence

•  Offsets,ECVMBUT…..•  Pollu>onofwatertablethensoils

couldirreversiblydestroy‘foodbowl’ofNSWandna>on

•  Inthissensemul>pleandsequen>aluseisa‘non-sense’

•  SimilartothePACdetermina>onfortheHorseRacingandViEcultureindustriesintheHunterinrejec>ngTheDraytonSouthProject

•  ‘CriEcalIndustryClusters’andCSGexclusionzones

Mul>pleandSequen>alUse

Discussion•  TransiEoningtoanimprovedstatewillrequiredaddi>ons

toourcurrentins>tu>onsandmarketeconomy•  AgriculturalImpactAssessments–butaretheseenough?•  Wheremarketandcurrentins>tu>onshavefailedwehave

usedProtectedAreastoconservekeypiecesofnatureandculture:–  Marineandterrestrialprotectedareas–  Na>onalParks–  WorldHeri>ageLis>ng–  RAMSARwetlands–  Biospherereserves–  Surfingreserves–  WildRiversetc.

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Discussioncon>nued…•  Providesforzoningandcontrolsonpar>cularusesthatensurethe

integralvaluesofthe‘asset’aremaintainedannoterodedordestroyed•  Whynotwhererisksaretoohighie‘we’arenotwillingtoforgothe

chanceofadverselyandirreversiblyimpac>ngourprimeagriculturallandandresources(water,social,economic,ins>tu>onal)?

•  AgriculturalProtectedAreas(APAs)orMiningExclusionZonesareawayforward-basedoncriteriasuchas‘compara>veandcompe>>veadvantage’forthelongterm:–  Naturalfeatures:idealsoils,watersupplies,climateetc.–  Socialfeatures:establishedpopula>onsandsocie>es,culture–  Economicfeatures:

•  establishedsupplychains,ins>tu>ons,networks,•  gene>cmaterial,•  capitalinvestmentsetc.

–  Na>onalsecurityfeatures:•  foodandwatersecurity;•  gobeyondcompara>veandcompe>>veadvantage•  becomesessen>alin>mesofwar/disasters

AboriginalandTorresStraitIslanders

•  IndigenousProtectedAreas(IPAs)areawayofmanagingsimilarintractableresourceextrac>onproblems

•  JustlikeAg,mul>pleandsequen>alusecanbeanon-sensewhenpeople,theirhealthandcultureareseverelycompromisedorannihilated

•  ECVMisanavenueforcompensa>on/capitalisa>onoflossesbutinsomecasesmininghasnoplace

•  Ethics

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Conclusion•  Whenandwhereenergymineralsrunout,aredetermined

bylocaltoglobalfeatures•  Totransformourregionalandremotecommuni>esto

moresustainablefutures,withoutforgoingthevirtuesofamarketorcapitalistsystem,weneedtocontrol/eliminateit’sadverseeffects

•  ProtectedAreasareaninstrumentthatarecurrentlyusedto‘save’elementsofourculturesornaturalheritagethatwearenotwillingtoforgoregardlessofalterna>veuses

•  AgriculturalProtectedAreasprovideanopportunityforreform,tobeUeralignpoli>calinterestswiththecommongood

References•  Jeavons,W.(1865)TheCoalQues(on;AnInquiryConcerningTheProgressOfTheNa(on,AndThe

ProbableExhaus(onOfOurCoal-mines,London:Macmillan.Accessed21June2016from:hUp://www.econlib.org/library/YPDBooks/Jevons/jvnCQ0.html

•  Marshall,A.(1878)‘TheCoalQues>on’,ChapterXandXIinThorpe,T.A.(Ed.)Coal:ItsHistoryandUses,MacMillian,London.Accessed14July2015from:hUps://ia601403.us.archive.org/19/items/coalitshistoryus00thorrich/coalitshistoryus00thorrich.pdf