A Robust Measure of A Robust Measure of Global Food AvailabilityGlobal Food Availability

Prepared by Mark ElwardPrepared by Mark ElwardJune 2010June 2010

A Robust MeasureA Robust Measure

Review of FAO food balance sheets in fall of 2009Review of FAO food balance sheets in fall of 2009

Worked through several stepsWorked through several steps• Review of the fundamentalsReview of the fundamentals

• FAO needsFAO needs• TheoryTheory• Credible StatisticsCredible Statistics

• Methods at FAOMethods at FAO• IssuesIssues• PossibilitiesPossibilities

Focus on one basic option Focus on one basic option (a few variations)(a few variations)• Only realistic option for FAOOnly realistic option for FAO

Current method is fundamentally flawedCurrent method is fundamentally flawed Other methods are ‘dreaming in technicolour’Other methods are ‘dreaming in technicolour’

One reasonable possibility…One reasonable possibility…

• Balance sheetBalance sheet Simple Simple

• Phenomenal challenge so keep it simplePhenomenal challenge so keep it simple• All countriesAll countries• All relevant food commodities (highest level)All relevant food commodities (highest level)• Displays relevant variablesDisplays relevant variables

Depends on production and trade (exist)Depends on production and trade (exist)

Consistent with fundamentals Consistent with fundamentals (need, theory, credible stats)(need, theory, credible stats)

• Therefore defendableTherefore defendable• Consistent with practices in countries with food stat programsConsistent with practices in countries with food stat programs

Minimises imputationsMinimises imputations• Accepts data gaps (can be filled in time)Accepts data gaps (can be filled in time)

FAO has or could have capacity to produceFAO has or could have capacity to produce

Complements other programs such as surveysComplements other programs such as surveys One piece of food puzzle One piece of food puzzle

Minimises revision ‘shock’Minimises revision ‘shock’

Can be applied at country levelCan be applied at country level

Fundamentals –just a reminderFundamentals –just a reminder

FAOFAO

• important to basic objectives of FAOimportant to basic objectives of FAO FAO is about adequate foodFAO is about adequate food balance sheets measure foodbalance sheets measure food

• internal users adding valueinternal users adding value

• multitude of external usersmultitude of external users public goodpublic good not a statistical organisationnot a statistical organisation

Balance sheets -what?Balance sheets -what? Portrait of an agricultural or food commodity over a period of Portrait of an agricultural or food commodity over a period of

time for a defined geographic leveltime for a defined geographic level link over timelink over time for analysis or public usefor analysis or public use

Stock and flow analysisStock and flow analysis numerous sources of datanumerous sources of data

==

beginning beginning stocksstocks

++flows inflows in

flows outflows out

++ending stocksending stocks

Good statistical programsGood statistical programs

RelevantRelevant

ReliableReliable• accurateaccurate• objectiveobjective

free of politicsfree of politics

TimelyTimely

Methods at FAOMethods at FAO

balance sheet frameworkbalance sheet framework countrycountry calendar yearcalendar year

tree structuretree structure numerous processed productsnumerous processed products up to 4 levels of processingup to 4 levels of processing distributed using ratiosdistributed using ratios

FoodFood

Food consumption = food available for consumptionFood consumption = food available for consumption• residual sum ??? but kept stable through balancing factorresidual sum ??? but kept stable through balancing factor• often expressed as an equivalent of level publishedoften expressed as an equivalent of level published

Converted to display nutrients representedConverted to display nutrients represented

• calories, protein and fatcalories, protein and fat• calculated at processed level and summedcalculated at processed level and summed

Calories per person per day = sensitiveCalories per person per day = sensitive

Let the fundamentals drive the program!Let the fundamentals drive the program!-adopt what has been proven--adopt what has been proven-

keep itkeep it important -is it properly funded?important -is it properly funded? publicpublic annualannual by countryby country agriculture and foodagriculture and food trade datatrade data supplementary data (area, yield, more)supplementary data (area, yield, more)

Focus and reduce workFocus and reduce work

only balance sheets worked with = publiconly balance sheets worked with = public 96 published balance sheets96 published balance sheets

cut the vast majority of processed productscut the vast majority of processed products at working levelat working level

review the commodities review the commodities 67 food types account for 99% of calories67 food types account for 99% of calories

still more that are importantstill more that are important Only 20 to 35 for each countryOnly 20 to 35 for each country

Work with stocksWork with stocks stocks -display when availablestocks -display when available

limit imputationslimit imputations• accept the gapsaccept the gaps

focus analysis on food available and caloriesfocus analysis on food available and calories• break the databreak the data

statistical discrepancy statistical discrepancy moving averagesmoving averages

defendable and more transparentdefendable and more transparent• users can perform calculationsusers can perform calculations

Other recommendationsOther recommendations TimelinessTimeliness

publish with one year of reference yearpublish with one year of reference year publish release dates and revision schedulepublish release dates and revision schedule

Clarify Clarify naming conventionsnaming conventions release on FAOSTATrelease on FAOSTAT

Working relationshipsWorking relationships beg, borrow & stealbeg, borrow & steal

Related dataRelated data agriculture and foodagriculture and food area and yieldarea and yield food aid tradefood aid trade

Waste-adjusted???Waste-adjusted??? maybe –in timemaybe –in time

Major change, minor impactMajor change, minor impact Impact on data would be limitedImpact on data would be limited

due to consistency with current methodsdue to consistency with current methods changes do not have to be taken back to beginningchanges do not have to be taken back to beginning

Limited shock to usersLimited shock to users due to similarities in coverage & presentationdue to similarities in coverage & presentation small revisionssmall revisions

Tried and testedTried and tested EU, US, CanadaEU, US, Canada = confidence= confidence = reduced risk= reduced risk = world-class= world-class

End result = program FAO can stand behindEnd result = program FAO can stand behind

program driven by fundamentalsprogram driven by fundamentals consistent with theory and practices in other countriesconsistent with theory and practices in other countries relevant to FAO core businessrelevant to FAO core business reflect good statistical practicesreflect good statistical practices reliablereliable

given limitations of data suppliersgiven limitations of data suppliers

timelytimely

Making it happen!Making it happen!Food is Key…Food is Key…

Series of decisions to define the public data setSeries of decisions to define the public data set

Food balance sheets Food balance sheets (not to be confused with agriculture)(not to be confused with agriculture)

High levelHigh level Stocks are less variable and consistent over timeStocks are less variable and consistent over time Less non-food use (feed, seed, etc)Less non-food use (feed, seed, etc) Production and trade are main data driversProduction and trade are main data drivers

What commodities???What commodities??? 99% world calories99% world calories

95% country level calories95% country level calories otherother

Food is Key…Food is Key…

Decisions or confirmationDecisions or confirmation variables (elements)variables (elements) use of statistical discrepancy factoruse of statistical discrepancy factor timeliness goals (within one year)timeliness goals (within one year) start point, smoothing?start point, smoothing?

A Robust Measure of A Robust Measure of Global Food AvailabilityGlobal Food Availability

What would it look like???What would it look like???

Click on spreadsheet to see!Click on spreadsheet to see!

AnalysisAnalysis Focus on food available for consumption and Focus on food available for consumption and

calories/person/yearcalories/person/year possible/probable/time elementpossible/probable/time element check data (household surveys)check data (household surveys) Production and trade = core infoProduction and trade = core info

Accept unless reason to adjustAccept unless reason to adjust documentdocument minimise use of statistical discrepancy factorminimise use of statistical discrepancy factor moving averagesmoving averages suppress = gapsuppress = gap

Smoothing???Smoothing???

NutrientsNutrients may need to derive factorsmay need to derive factors

Once established, consistency is importantOnce established, consistency is important

TestingTesting6 countries, 5 commodities, 2000 - 20076 countries, 5 commodities, 2000 - 2007

demonstrates that suggested balance sheets will work welldemonstrates that suggested balance sheets will work well

need production and tradeneed production and trade everything else is fine-tuningeverything else is fine-tuning impact of stocks data gaps is smallimpact of stocks data gaps is small data adjustments limiteddata adjustments limited

in line with current FAO datain line with current FAO data

20 to 35 commodities = 95%20 to 35 commodities = 95%

incorporating the new methods... worksincorporating the new methods... works

Testing -moreTesting -more

Excel works well for this applicationExcel works well for this application other good optionsother good options

Nutrient factors need reviewNutrient factors need review

A knowledge of fundamentals is criticalA knowledge of fundamentals is critical

Click open file to see actual data!

Wheat Flour

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

kcal/person/day

New-China Trad-China NEW-India Trad-India

New-Ghana Trad-Ghana

Rice

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

kcal/person/day

New-China Trad-China NEW-India Trad-India

New-Ghana Trad-Ghana

AgricultureAgriculture-referring to primary commodities--referring to primary commodities-

Format = EST or WAOBFormat = EST or WAOB Marketing year is OKMarketing year is OK No need for duplicationNo need for duplication

EST more exposureEST more exposure ESS more efficientESS more efficient FAO limits duplication and FAO limits duplication and

provides better serviceprovides better service

Is there a willingness???Is there a willingness???

TradeTrade Independent valueIndependent value

detaileddetailed currently player in international trade statisticscurrently player in international trade statistics

• shares with Eurostat, UNSD, OECDshares with Eurostat, UNSD, OECD original dataoriginal data

Potentially more timelyPotentially more timely

ProductionProduction

Independent valueIndependent value cover more commoditiescover more commodities

• agriculture and processedagriculture and processed limited detaillimited detail

Potentially more timelyPotentially more timely

Methods Implementation Simply PutMethods Implementation Simply Put

ProjectProject data and systems teamdata and systems team data usersdata users

3 major steps3 major steps planningplanning

• data = define the public data setdata = define the public data set• systems = builds specifications from data teamsystems = builds specifications from data team

developmentdevelopment• data = country specific commodity balance sheetsdata = country specific commodity balance sheets• system = programming working and publicsystem = programming working and public

releaserelease• experimentalexperimental

Result = relevant, reliable and timely data set that will Result = relevant, reliable and timely data set that will stand the test of time...stand the test of time...