a review of climate trends that impact forested watersheds
TRANSCRIPT
Center for Climate Preparedness and
Community Resilience
Mission: Strengthen communities to prepare, respond and recover in the face of climate impacts and other disruptions through collaborative, innovative solutions.
www.communityresilience-center.org
Eastern Regional Climate Change Preparedness Conference
Save the DateMay 1-3, 2018 Manchester NH
http://localsolutions2018.org/
Sponsored by:
Financing Climate Change Solutions
Weathering Change: Local Solutions for Strong
Communities April 13, 2017 12:00 – 1:15 PM EST
Although there is widespread agreement on the need to prepare for the changing climate, there is no clear consensus on how much it will cost, or how communities will pay for it. This webinar will address financial support for emergency preparedness and longer range adaptation planning and will include:
• An update on the rapidly changing costs of insurance;• How to best navigate the complexities of damage payments; • Tips about existing funds that can be tapped to support current efforts; and• How a community might think out-of-the-box to mitigate future costs.
Jessica Grannis, Georgetown Climate CenterStephanie Benfield Stuckey, Chief Resilience Officer for the City of Atlanta
Moderator, Rafaela Moura, Senior Energy and Climate Change Advisor – EPA Region IV
Download the report at http://www.communityresilience-center.org
Michael Simpson Center for Climate Preparedness and Community Resilience
A Review of Climate Trends That Impact Forested Watersheds
Antioch UniversityApril 4, 2017
• What is Happening
• What to Expect
• Some Implications for Riparian Corridors
What Is Happening
Annual US Average Temperature 1900-2008
Burakowski & Wake 2008
Wake 2013
Southern NH
Northeast Winter Temperature Trends 1965-2008
Burakowski & Wake 2008
Mean Temperature + 2.5 oFMax Temperature + 2.7 oFMin Temperature + 2.3 oF
Snowfall - 9 inchesSnow on Ground - 9 days
Trends in Winter Climate in the Northeast US
Burakowski et al., 2008
Average Ice Out Day Trend 1925-2005 (27 Lakes)
Ice Out data from Hodgkins et al., 2002 and at: http://me.water.usgs.gov/iceout.html
90
100
110
120
130
1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Ice
Out
(Jul
ian
Day
)
Year
4.5 days earlier over 81 years8.0 days earlier over 36 years
Winter/Spring (1 Jan - 31 May) Center-of-Volume Dates
All data from unregulated rivers; Hodgkins et al., 2003
Increase in Average Precipitation1958 - 2012
NCA 3 2014
Historic Increase in Heavy Precipitation
NCA 3 2014
1958 - 2012
Source: National Climatic Data Center/NESDIS/NOAA
Wake, 2008
Indicators of Climate Change in the Northeast US over the last 30-40 yrs • Winter warming• Decreased snowfall• Fewer days with snow on ground
• Lake ice out dates earlier
• More frequent extreme precipitationHodgkins et al., 2002; 2003; Wolfe et al., 2005;
Wake and Markham, 2005; Wake et al., 2006; Burakowski & Wake 2008
• Earlier spring runoff
What is “Likely”
Frumhoff et al. 2007
Scenarios of Possible Futures:Representative Concentration Pathways
A Changing Climate
Six gridpoints proximate to
study areas in NH were used to transfer the
expected change in precipitation from the GCM to
Sunapee and regional stations
Syntectic Int’l, 04/07
Syntectic Int’l, 2007
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
1 10 100 1,000Return period (years)
Inte
nsity
(cm
/24-
hrs)
Actual Estimate 'A' Estimate 'B'
Intensity/return-period curve, 1971-2000
Validate downscaling
24-hr, 25-year precip.
Wake, 2010
NCA3 2014
Wake 2013
Wake 2013
Frumhof et al. 2007
Area With at Least 30 Days of Snow Cover(high emissions (2070-2100)
Hayhoe et al 2006
Frequency of Annual Droughts of Varying Length
Number of droughts/30 years
Projected Increase Probability of Extreme Rainfall Events
NCA 3 2014
Frumhoff et al. 2007
Ivesrson et al. 2008
Shifting Habitats
Carex lenticularis(lakeshore sedge)
Rumex pallidus(seaside dock)
Southern-most Range
Thuja Occidentalis(northern white cedar)
Myriophyllum aquaticum (parrotfeather)
Pueraria lobata(Kudzu)
What may be coming your way…or is already here
Microstegium vimineum(stiltgrass)
Design Rainfall Amounts(inches)
Percentage Chance of
Annual Rainfall
Return Period(year storm)
2.50 100% 12.80 40% 2.53.60 20% 53.80 13.33% 7.54.10 10% 104.80 4% 255.40 2% 505.70 1.33 % 756.00 1% 100
Return Period and Probability
Return period (years) Recent climate
mid-21st cent. Optimistic
mid-21st cent. Moderate
mid-21st cent. Pessimistic
2.5 2.5 2.84 3.3 6.86
5 3.17 3.47 4.11 8.4
7.5 3.57 3.88 4.66 9.39
10 3.86 4.19 5.1 10.13
25 4.84 5.28 6.74 12.75
50 5.67 6.22 8.31 15.03
75 6.2 6.82 9.39 16.5
100 6.59 7.27 10.23 17.59
Oyster River Basin StudyReturn Period : Current and Future
9% 32% 163%
Simpson 2009
The future 25 year storm event will have the amount of precipitation of a historic 750 year storm event
Simpson & Stack 2011
Increased Frequency of Flooding
2005
2007
2006
Of 16 largest events since 1934:
• 13 have occurred in last 25 years
• 10 have occurred in last 15 years
• 8 have occurred in last 7 years
Highest Daily DischargeLamprey River near Newmarket since 1934
Roseen 2012
Lamprey River 100 Year Flood Risk Project
Current Newmarket 100 Year Floodplain
Wake, Rosseen & Simpson 2012
Obligates
Fac Wet
Facultative
Fac Up
Upland
25 year historic amount will come with 2-year frequency
Simpson & Stack 2011
US EPA
Rosgen 1993
Lake Sunapee watershed: Delineated catchments
Drainage system: Current Capacity
Field Data Collection210 road crossings
What Happens with Increased Flow at Road Crossings
Coastal NH - May 2006
Lake Sunapee watershed:
Spatial impact of undersized culverts
Mid-21st projected 25-yr storm:35% of culverts undersized
A Changing Landscape
Recent conditionsWith population growth And more
extreme rainfall
Drainage system adequacy
Trans = transitional
SIZE
OF
IMPA
CT
TIME
2100Present
pessimistic
optimistic
SIZE
OF
IMPA
CT
TIME
2100Present
SIZE
OF
IMPA
CT
TIME
2100Present
monitor
monitor
monitor
monitor
Plan
Plan
Plan
Plan