a problem with the long tail (although an amazing number of things are powerlaws, a lot of things...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: A problem with the Long Tail (Although an amazing number of things are powerlaws, a lot of things arent. How can you tell the difference?) (Read the text](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022061304/5513d55a55034679748b4ecf/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
A problem with the Long Tail
(Although an amazing number of things are powerlaws, a lot of things aren’t.
How can you tell the difference?)
(Read the text in the notes panel at the bottom for narration)
![Page 2: A problem with the Long Tail (Although an amazing number of things are powerlaws, a lot of things arent. How can you tell the difference?) (Read the text](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022061304/5513d55a55034679748b4ecf/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
A powerlaw
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Products
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Shown another way
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WTF?
![Page 5: A problem with the Long Tail (Although an amazing number of things are powerlaws, a lot of things arent. How can you tell the difference?) (Read the text](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022061304/5513d55a55034679748b4ecf/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
The Missing Market
![Page 6: A problem with the Long Tail (Although an amazing number of things are powerlaws, a lot of things arent. How can you tell the difference?) (Read the text](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022061304/5513d55a55034679748b4ecf/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Source: Morris Rosenthal
![Page 7: A problem with the Long Tail (Although an amazing number of things are powerlaws, a lot of things arent. How can you tell the difference?) (Read the text](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022061304/5513d55a55034679748b4ecf/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
![Page 8: A problem with the Long Tail (Although an amazing number of things are powerlaws, a lot of things arent. How can you tell the difference?) (Read the text](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022061304/5513d55a55034679748b4ecf/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
![Page 9: A problem with the Long Tail (Although an amazing number of things are powerlaws, a lot of things arent. How can you tell the difference?) (Read the text](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022061304/5513d55a55034679748b4ecf/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
The problem
![Page 10: A problem with the Long Tail (Although an amazing number of things are powerlaws, a lot of things arent. How can you tell the difference?) (Read the text](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022061304/5513d55a55034679748b4ecf/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
![Page 11: A problem with the Long Tail (Although an amazing number of things are powerlaws, a lot of things arent. How can you tell the difference?) (Read the text](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022061304/5513d55a55034679748b4ecf/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
![Page 12: A problem with the Long Tail (Although an amazing number of things are powerlaws, a lot of things arent. How can you tell the difference?) (Read the text](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022061304/5513d55a55034679748b4ecf/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Examples of phenomena that follow powerlaw distributions
• Species distribution among plants• Square footage of Alaskan Inuit homes• Forest fires, by size• Cities, by population• Death toll in wars• Earthquakes• Word use• Number of papers published by scientists
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Examples of phenomena that follow lognormal distributions
• Concentration of elements in the earth's crust
• Latent periods of infectious diseases• Survival times after cancer diagnosis• Distribution of chemicals in the environment
(including pollution)• Species distribution among moths and
diatoms• Crystals in ice cream• Length of words in spoken conversation
![Page 14: A problem with the Long Tail (Although an amazing number of things are powerlaws, a lot of things arent. How can you tell the difference?) (Read the text](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022061304/5513d55a55034679748b4ecf/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
What’s the difference?
Powerlaws: created by “preferential attachment” in scale-free networks.
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Lognormal distributions: created by "proportionate effects" (like growing by a proportion of your weight).
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Question
Assuming it all comes down to network effects, how can you predict whether the “natural shape” (free of bottlenecks and other scarcity distortions) is a powerlaw or a lognormal distribution?