a planning process

THE PLANNING PROCESS

- with case studies

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Learning ObjectivesLearning Objectives

To understand the main steps in the Planning Process.

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To contribute to the work with each step in the Planning

Process.

Phases and Outputs

INITIATION ORIENTATIONCONCEPT

DEVELOPMENTPLAN

DEVELOPMENTPLAN

REVIEW

•CONDUCT MISSION ANALYSIS

•MISSION ANALYSIS BRIEFING

CO’S PLANNINGGUIDANCE

•RECEIVE ORDER

•GATHER INFO

•STAFF ANALYSIS

•DEVELOP COAs

•COA DECISION BRIEFING

•DEVELOP CONOPS

CONOPS

•DEVELOP

•CO-ORDINATE

•SEEK APROVAL

•ISSUE PLAN

OPLAN DISTRIBUTED(MAIN BODY + ANNEXES)

•PLAN REVIEW

•PLAN EVAL

UPDATED OPLAN/OPORD

OUTPUT

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Planning Process - Staff Involvement

Initiation Orientation Concept DevelopmentPlan Development

PlanReview

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THE PLANNING CYCLE

Mission

OPLAN/OPORD

Control -new mission

Estimates

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Mission Analysis Briefing

ORIENTATION PHASEORIENTATION PHASE

CONCEPT DEVELOPMENTCONCEPT DEVELOPMENTPHASEPHASE PLAN DEVELOPMENTPLAN DEVELOPMENT

PHASEPHASE

PLAN REVIEW PHASEPLAN REVIEW PHASE

INITIATION PHASEINITIATION PHASE

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THE PLANNING CYCLE

Mission

OPLAN/OPORD


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This part of the Planning Process

is only for analysis - not planning

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THE PLANNING CYCLE

Mission

OPLAN/OPORD


Estimates

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is only for planning

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THE PLANNING CYCLE

Mission

OPLAN/OPORD


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This part of the Planning Process is only for

documentation of the decision taken by

the commander

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THE PLANNING CYCLE

Mission

OPLAN/OPORD


Estimates

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is only for controlling.

Demands for changes will result in a new planning process - starts from the

beginning!!!!!

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THE PLANNING CYCLE

Mission

OPLAN/OPORD


Estimates

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Estimates

In a complicated missionthere can be many staff meetings- in a simple task only few - but you will always have• MISSION ANALYSIS BRIEFING• COA DECISION BRIEFING

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Mission Analysis

The aim of the mission analysis is to identify the boundaries of the problem.

This includes:

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interpretation and definition of the given order

conditions that may affect the mission

review of own and opposing forces to determine strengths

and weaknesses.

MISSION ANALYSIS STEPSStep 1. Analyse the higher commander’s order.Step 2. Conduct Initial Intelligence Preparation (Situation overview).Step 3. Analyse Higher Commander’s Intent, Mission, Objectives and Desired End State.Step 4. Identify Planning Limitations.Step 5. Identify Assumptions.Step 6. Identify critical FactsStep 7. Strengths and Weaknesses (both opposing and own forces).Step 8. Centres of Gravity (COG)/Decisive PointsStep 9. Identify/determine Tasks (assigned, implied and essential)Step 10. Determine Own Objectives, Desired End State and Criteria for SuccessStep 11. Write the restated mission (WHO, WHAT, WHEN, WHERE AND WHY).Step 12. Conduct a mission analysis briefingStep 13. Approve the restated mission.Step 14. Develop the commander's initial intent.Step 15. Issue the commander's guidance.Step 16. Issue a warning order.Step 17. Review facts and assumptions.

MISSION ANALYSIS:For a complex missionit might be a longer procedure -For a simple missionwe might be doing thisin minutes!

MISSION ANALYSIS:For a complex missionit might be a longer procedure -For a simple missionwe might be doing thisin minutes!

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This can also be done in a staff meeting - COS Mission Analysis -and is normally done by the COS - in co-op with branch Heads.

MISSION ANALYSISMISSION ANALYSISHigher Commander´s Plan

Commander´s Intent: Two Levels Up

Mission:

Tasks: Specified, Implied, Essential

Constraints & Restraints

Risk

Available Forces

Area Of Operations / Interest

Concept Of Operation

Timeline

STEP 1/3

INITIAL INFORMATION INITIAL INFORMATION PREPARATION OF THE AORPREPARATION OF THE AOR

• Systematic and Continuous Process

• Defines the Area of Responsibility (AOR) & Initial Collection

Efforts

• Analysis & Estimates Threat & Effects of the AOR

• Assists the Staff to focus the Planning;

-Development of COAs, collection of info, etc.

• Produces specific Products;

-Situation Template-Situation Template

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STEP 2

Planning Limitations

Exist as restraintsrestraints, constraintsconstraints and

pre-conditions for successpre-conditions for success..

Restraints Restraints limit what may be done - must not do! ConstraintsConstraints impose obligations that mustmust be met. Pre-conditionsPre-conditions stated by CO as essential for mission

success.

STEP 4

MISSION ANALYSISAssumptions

Assumptions state essential conditions which must exist if a specific plan is to succeed -- take the place of facts -- must be valid and necessary -- regularly validate assumptions.

Examples from SFOR / KFOR:Examples from SFOR / KFOR: Population generally support the implementation Population generally support the implementation of the Peace Agreement and the presence of of the Peace Agreement and the presence of Peace Troops in AOR.Peace Troops in AOR.

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STEP 5

Facts and Assumptions

Three-step thinking:Three-step thinking:

1. Facts or Assumptions (Critical?)1. Facts or Assumptions (Critical?)

2. Consequences2. Consequences

3. 3. ConclusionsConclusions

““What does it mean to me??”What does it mean to me??”

““What do I need to do??”What do I need to do??”

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STEP 6

Strengths and Weakness

1.1. Identify both opposing and own forcesIdentify both opposing and own forces

2. 2. ConclusionsConclusions

““What does it mean to me??”What does it mean to me??”

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STEP 7

Centre of Gravity (COG)

“the Point against which all energies should be directed”.

STEP 8 Exist at strategic, operational and tactical levels.

“the Hub of all power and movement on which everything depends”.

Centre of Gravity(COG)

(Continued)

The COGCOG is that characteristic, capability, locality, from which a military force derives its freedom offreedom of actionaction, physical strengthphysical strength or will to fightwill to fight.

If attacked, destroyed, neutralised or eliminated, will lead to inevitableinevitable defeat or wish for peace.

STEP 8


(Continued)

“Exploit FWFFWF COG,

while protecting OwnOwn COG”

STEP 8

Decisive Points (DPs)

DPs are keyskeys to getting at the COGs.

May exist in time, space or in the information environment.

GeographicalGeographical in nature, but can be linked to attainment of

specific capabilitiescapabilities or to elements of combat functionscombat functions

STEP 8

Decisive Points (DPs)

(Continued)

Control of DPs provides CO with possibility to greatly

influence the outcome of an action.

Proper action at DPs allows the CO to gain initiative,

retain freedom of operational manoeuvre and maintain

momentum.

STEP 8


An ExampleAn Example

Operational: Bogaland Kasurian

• Stability and Independency from Valla Stability and Independency from Valla

Bogaland Midian• Stability in whole Bogaland Stability in whole Bogaland

UNMIB• Implementation of UN Mandate Implementation of UN Mandate

STEP 8

Decisive Points DPs

(Examples)Examples) Prepare a Contingency Plan for Ops within Enclave. Negotiations with Parties. Liaison with UN Agencies in AOR. Arms embargo operations. Maintain Freedom of movement (FOM). Support of International Organisations/ NGO´s. Information Operations. Maintain the security in the whole AOR and in the ZOS. Co-ordinate C2, Comms, liaison, and operational requirements..

STEP 8

TASKSTASKSSSpecified/Implied/Essential

EssentialEssential tasks could consist of both specified and implied tasks, are necessarynecessary for mission accomplishment.

STEP 9 SpecifiedSpecified tasks are stated in higher CO´s order.

ImpliedImplied tasks are those not mentioned in the order, but are identified

when analysing the order.

Desired End State

A descriptive statement of the political and military political and military

conditionsconditions that indicate mission completion.

Likely to be general in nature, not to limit the CO´s

method of achieving the mission.

STEP 10

Criteria for Success

Because the End State is generalgeneral or broadbroad, it may be hard to

determine mission success.

Measurable criteria to determinecriteria to determine achievement of End State.

STEP 10

Restated MissionRestated MissionForce Commander´s Order

UNMIB Order

Mission statement should answerthe questions: WHO, WHAT, WHEN, WHERE AND WHYWHO, WHAT, WHEN, WHERE AND WHY

2.Mission2.Mission3.Executiona. Concept of Operations (1) Commander´s Intent (2) Scheme of Manoeuvre

b. Tasks to Manoeuvre unitsb. Tasks to Manoeuvre units (UNMIB)(UNMIB) 2.Mission2.Mission

3.Executiona. Concept of Operations (1) Commander´s Intent (2) Scheme of Manoeuvre

b. Tasks to Manoeuvre units

STEP 11

Mission StatementMission Statement(Example)

“UNMIB will NLT D+2 until further notice conduct Peace Support Operations in assigned AOR in Bogaland. UNMIB will establish and maintain a Zone of Separation and effectively separate the Parties´Forces. Operations will be executed in co-operation with other civilian organisations, together withlocal authorities in order to establish and maintain a safe and secure environment for local population and humanitarian agencies.”

WHOWHENWHATWHEREWHY

STEP 11

MISSION ANALYSIS BRIEFINGWHO WHATCOS Purpose and Agenda, Mission.COO General situation, HQ or higher Commanders Intent,

Concept of Operation, Centers of Gravity, Desired End-state.MIO Initial Information's Preparation.

Terrain/Weather Analysis, Threat Evaluation.COO Specified, Implied, Essential Tasks.

Facts, Assumptions, Limitations. Conclusions: Shortfalls/Critical obstacles/Recommendations.

CMPO Personnel Estimate.Conclusions: Shortfalls/Critical obstacles/Recommendations.

CLO Logistics Estimate.Conclusions: Shortfalls/Critical obstacles/Recommendations.

CMCOORD Civil Military Affairs Estimate.Conclusions: Shortfalls/Critical obstacles/Recommendations.

COMMS COMMS EstimateConclusions: Shortfalls/Critical obstacles/Recommendations.

COS Request Commander´s Guidance.

STEP 12

Commander PERSONALLY Prepares his Intent Must be UNDERSTOOD Two Levels Down

•Clear, Concise Statement ofClear, Concise Statement of the SUCCESS CRITERIA SUCCESS CRITERIA with respect to the with respect to the SITUATIONSITUATION, the , the TERRAINTERRAIN and to and to thethe DESIRED ENDSTATEDESIRED ENDSTATE..

•KEY TASKSKEY TASKS that are the basis for initiative of that are the basis for initiative of Subordinates.Subordinates.

•BROADER PURPOSEBROADER PURPOSE beyond the beyond the MISSION.MISSION.

COMMANDER'S INITIAL INTENT

STEP 14

0 KM 5 KM Valla

TedaBLUEPOCKET

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Prepare to receive, contain, protect and provide basic needs to refugees crossing the border from TEDA to VALLA in order to hand these refugees over to UNHCR as soon as possible. On request UNMIB will support UNHCR to set up protected camps or other accommodations in case of a greater numbers of refugees crossing in to VALLA . The task has

been given tothe MilitaryComponent

x

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First task:Prepare the mission analysis briefing for First Staff Conference

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Case Study No 1Case Study No 1::Conduct the Mission AnalysisMission Analysis

and prepare for the Mission Analysis Briefing.Mission Analysis Briefing.

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““SUGGESTED SOLUTION”SUGGESTED SOLUTION”Case Study No 1Case Study No 1

Mission Analysis BriefingMission Analysis Briefing

(Hand-out)(Hand-out)

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PfPfPSOPSOCCTHE PLANNING CYCLE

Mission

OPLAN/OPORD


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CONCEPT DEVELOPMENTCONCEPT DEVELOPMENTPHASEPHASE

PLAN DEVELOPMENTPLAN DEVELOPMENTPHASEPHASE



We will now focus onthe next part of the planningprocess

Phases and Outputs

INITIATION ORIENTATIONCONCEPT

DEVELOPMENTPLAN

DEVELOPMENTPLAN

REVIEW

•CONDUCT MISSION ANALYSIS

•MISSION ANALYSIS BRIEFING

CO’S PLANNINGGUIDANCE

•RECEIVE ORDER

•GATHER INFO

•STAFF ANALYSIS

•DEVELOP COAs

•COA DECISION BRIEFING

•DEVELOP CONOPS

CONOPS

•DEVELOP

•CO-ORDINATE

•SEEK APROVAL

•ISSUE PLAN

OPLAN DISTRIBUTED(MAIN BODY + ANNEXES)

•PLAN REVIEW

•PLAN EVAL

UPDATED OPLAN/OPORD

OUTPUT

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Concept Development

The final product of this planning phase is a CONOPSCONOPS based on a single Own COAOwn COA, chosen by the Commander. Four steps are carried out during this phase:– Staff Analysis

– Development of COAs (opposing forces and own)

– Decision Briefing

– CONOPS Development

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Staff Analysis• To examineexamine factors and deductions and to identifyidentify

assumptions relevant to the mission in order to:– Ascertain whether the mission is achievable.

– Develop COA that are viable and supportable.

• Factors to examine are:Factors to examine are:– Overall Situation in AOR

– FWF Situation & Capabilities

– Own Forces Situation & Capabilities

– Terrain & Weather

– Command & Control

KITTENSEE

UBUNGSDORF

OBERSCHWEND

ALBERTSHOF

RAVERSDORF

ENSLWANG

CMTC

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IINTELLIGENCE NTELLIGENCE PPREPARATION OF REPARATION OF THE THE AOR (Continued)AOR (Continued)

• Systematic and Continuous Process

• Defines the AOR & Initial Collection Efforts

• Analysis & Estimates Threat & Effects of the AOR

Environment

• Development of COAs;

The Most Likely & the Most Dangerous, with Objectives

• Produces specific Products;

-Situation Template-Situation Template

KITTENSEE

UBUNGSDORF

OBERSCHWEND

ALBERTSHOF

RAVERSDORF

ENSLWANG

CMTC

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Development of FWF COA´s• Identify the players. (civil population, police, military,

rebels)• Mark their location on the map.• What can they do?• Develop COAs by brainstorming.• Decide what COA is the Most Likely and the Most

Dangerous.• Describe also what objectives they have in each COA.

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FORMER WARRING FACTIONSConsiderations:Commander Objectives?Commander Objectives?Force Structure/Order of Battle?Force Structure/Order of Battle?Intelligence Capabilities?Intelligence Capabilities?Most Likely/Dangerous COA?Most Likely/Dangerous COA?Critical Vulnerabilities?Critical Vulnerabilities?Constraints and Restrictions?Constraints and Restrictions?Recent Tactical Performance?Recent Tactical Performance?Sustainment Capability?Sustainment Capability?

Example :Example :• Not only Military units are players. Not only Military units are players. Police, Paramilitary units, Criminal Police, Paramilitary units, Criminal Gangs and Civilians are players as Gangs and Civilians are players as well and must be assessed too.well and must be assessed too.

• Situational Template• Plot Unit Locations• Display Likely Actions Used For Subsequent Planning

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TERRAINConsiderations :Considerations :Area of Operation/Area of Interest?Key Terrain -- Decisive Terrain?Areas of Critical Movement Constriction?Movement Rate Estimates?Terrain Protection from Enemy Recce?Logistics Infrastructure?Area Where FWF Are Most Vulnerable?

•Key Terrain•Obstacles•Avenues of Approach•Concealment and Cover•Observation & Fields of Fire•Terrain:

•Slope/Line Of Sight •Elevation•Vegetation•Soil and Water

•MobilityExample :Example :

• Main Supply Routes and roads in general are very important toMain Supply Routes and roads in general are very important to maintain Freedom of movement, mainly due to mine threat.maintain Freedom of movement, mainly due to mine threat.

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WEATHERConsiderations for COAs:

Natural Light and Illumination

DAY BMNT Sunrise EENT Sunset Moonrise Illumination Moonset

N

Winds

TemperatureHigh LowVisibility? Rain? Snow? Sleet?

Humidity?...Air Density?Cloud Cover/Ceiling...Fog?

Example :Example :• No aviation support by helicopter during long periods due to No aviation support by helicopter during long periods due to rain seasons, low clouds and dense fograin seasons, low clouds and dense fog

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Planning Process - Staff Involvement

Initiation Orientation Concept DevelopmentPlan Development

PlanReview

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Case Study No 2Case Study No 2::

PRODUCE THE PRODUCE THE FWFFWF COA COA• Most likelyMost likely• Most dangerousMost dangerous

Assessment of the Assessment of the FWFFWF objectives.objectives.

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FWF Course Of ActionFWF Course Of Action

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0 KM 5 KM Valla

TedaBLUEPOCKET

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Teda forces will startethnic cleansing to force the main body of the population to flee the pocket and Teda

COA 1MOST DANGEROUS

Teda forces will launch an operation againstthe FBA and this operation will result in a number of refugees fleeing the pocket

COA 2MOST LIKELY

Teda forces will seal off the pocket in order to doa ”search and destroy” operation against FBA

COA 3

Own Course of Action

• An Own COAOwn COA is a possible option open to the commander that would accomplish the mission.

• Every attempt should be made to develop as many COAs as possible (BrainstormingBrainstorming).

• It is initially stated in broad terms.

(When, Who, What, Where, Why and HowWhen, Who, What, Where, Why and How)

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Own Course of Action (Cont.)

All Own COAs should be tested for its viability.– SuitableSuitable (will the COA result in mission

accomplishment?)– FeasibleFeasible (achievable within allocated resources?)– AcceptableAcceptable (accepted doctrine, risk etc)– ExclusivityExclusivity (different comparative advantages and

disadvantages?)– CompletenessCompleteness (Does the COA answer the when,

where, who, what, why and how questions?)

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OWN FORCESConsiderations:Commander Objectives?Commander Objectives?Forces and Task Organisation?Forces and Task Organisation?Critical Vulnerabilities?Critical Vulnerabilities?Constraints and Restrictions?Constraints and Restrictions?Recent Tactical Performance?Recent Tactical Performance?Sustainment Capability?Sustainment Capability?Multinational Operations?Multinational Operations?Interoperability with Partners?Interoperability with Partners?Command & Control relations?Command & Control relations?Ethnic/Religious issues?Ethnic/Religious issues?

Example :Example :Almost every operation, planned or executed, involved Almost every operation, planned or executed, involved complicated Command & Control arrangements due to complicated Command & Control arrangements due to multinational arrangements.multinational arrangements.

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Course Of Action DevelopmentWho-What-Where-When-Why-HowWho-What-Where-When-Why-HowScheme of Manoeuvre/Concept of Fire support/Tempo

Task OrgReserveMain EffortScheme of ManoeuvreSuccess Criteria

Considerations:Considerations: Suitable -- HQ´s Guidance Feasible -- Capability Acceptable -- Cost:

Casualties Resources Time

Exclusivity -- Different Complete -- Mission/Intent

Concept/Future

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PRODUCE PRODUCE OWNOWN COAs COAs

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OWN Courses Of ActionOWN Courses Of Action

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0 KM 5 KM VALLA

TEDABLUEPOCKET

BLUETOWN

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GPGP

GP

TRANSITCAMP

PRINCIPLE:Directions from the border to Gathering Points (GP),then transport from GP to Transit camp and transport from Transit Camp to UNHCR camp

Responsibility for basic need and forsecurity will start atthe border and will end when we have handed over to UNHCR

0 KM 5 KM VALLA

TEDABLUEPOCKET

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OWN COA 1

Each Bn has the responsibility for:

A. Directing the refugees into the Gathering Points (GP).

B. Supply the refugees with first aid and water.

C. Transport the refugees to the Transit camp.

The Force reserve will have the responsibility in the Transit camp as well as for the transport and hand over to UNHCR.

OWN COA 2

The Force Reserve in TACON of the Bn along the border and having responsibility for:

A. Directing the refugees into the Gathering Points (GP).

B. Supply the refugees with first aid and water.

C. Transport the refugees to the Transit camp.

D. Transport the refugees from the Transit Camp to UNHCR

Each Bn in the border area will perform their usual PK activities.

COA gaming

• Identify advantagesadvantages and disadvantagesdisadvantages of single Own COAs.

• Use method that permits an analysis in time & space:

• Deliberate Timeline AnalysisDeliberate Timeline Analysis

• Operational PhasingOperational Phasing

• Critical EventsCritical Events

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COA gaming(Continued)

Advantages and Disadvantages of each Course Of Action.

Determines which OwnOwn Course Of Action has highest PROBABILITY OF SUCCESSPROBABILITY OF SUCCESS against MOST LIKELYMOST LIKELY & MOST DANGEROUSMOST DANGEROUS FWF Course Of Action

Presented in Tabular Form

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COA gaming (1)

FWF COA

Most Likely

Most Dangerous

OwnCOA 1

OwnCOA 2

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COA Comparison

• Comparison is accomplished through an examinationexamination of war game results, and the advantages and disadvantages.

• Comparison against selection criteriaselection criteria.

• Result of comparison usually presented in tabular formtabular form during COA Decision Brief.

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COA ComparisonCOA´s must be compared against Selection CriteriaSelection Criteria:

For example:• Secrecy• Force Protection• Surprise• Speed• Flexibility• Freedom of Movement

SELECTION CRITERIASELECTION CRITERIACAN BE CAN BE WEIGHTEDWEIGHTED, , DUE TO IMPORTANCE!!DUE TO IMPORTANCE!!

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Selection Criteria Comparison

Criteria COA 1 COA 2

Ops security

Force Protection (x3)

Surprise (x2)

Freedom of Movement

Flexibility

+ + + + +

1 2

Yes, very well. Yes its quick, but the establishment of outer securitycould blow the moment of surprise.

Conclusion:

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COA Comparison

OwnCOA 1

OwnCOA 2

Advantages(Pros)

Disadvantages(Cons)

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• Disciplined Process to visualise the Flow of the OperationDisciplined Process to visualise the Flow of the Operation

• Action, Reaction, CounteractionAction, Reaction, Counteraction

• Basis for making recommendation to the Commander Basis for making recommendation to the Commander

• Tests and Improves Courses Of Action (Tests and Improves Courses Of Action (ViabilityViability))

• Tools for COA Gaming:Tools for COA Gaming:

MapMap

COS / Staff COS / Staff

COA Gaming & Comparison

- Sum Up

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Development of CONOPS • Critical assumptions

• Assessment of the Situation

• Mission & Intent

• Operational Concept

• Logistics Concept

• Command & Control Issues

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WHO WHATCOS Mission, situation, FC’s guidance, conclusion

MIO Updated Intelligence Preparation Products Terrain/Weather Analysis, Threat Evaluation,

COO Own Restated Mission, Status of Own ForcesCMPO,MIO, Own situationCLO, CMCOORDLO, COMMS

MIO Non UN forces COA´s

COO Own COA´s

Comparison of Own COA´s. Pros and Cons for each COA

Recommended COA (What, When, Where, Who, Why and How)

FC Decision

COS Plan for staff work

COA DECISION BRIEF UNSOCUNSOC


The syndicate will now form a Bde Staff.

Prepare the COA DECISION BRIEFINGCOA DECISION BRIEFING..

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Course Of Action Decision Course Of Action Decision BriefingBriefing

(Hand-out)(Hand-out)

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a planning process

Documents

mission review

mission analysis stepsstep

mission analysis briefingstep

restated mission

planning limitations

review facts

commanders initial intent

higher commanders intent