A ‘no-forecast’ price forecast: forward prices versus actuals The charts compare LME 15-month prices at end-October with cash prices 15 months later ALUMINIUM

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<ul><li> Slide 1 </li> <li> A no-forecast price forecast: forward prices versus actuals The charts compare LME 15-month prices at end-October with cash prices 15 months later ALUMINIUM COPPER ZINC </li> <li> Slide 2 </li> <li> Analysts forecasts of metal prices Forecasts by analysts published in the LME Ringsider in October for future years ALUMINIUMCOPPER LEADZINC </li> <li> Slide 3 </li> <li> Projecting historic trends - one </li> <li> Slide 4 </li> <li> Projecting historic trends one ! </li> <li> Slide 5 </li> <li> Projecting historic trends - two </li> <li> Slide 6 </li> <li> Projecting historic trends two ! </li> <li> Slide 7 </li> <li> Copper prices in real terms1900-2009 </li> <li> Slide 8 </li> <li> There are probable world mine reserves of more than 100 Mt of copper, or enough for 80 years at the 1933 rate of consumption. All present knowledge indicates that in spite of the most extensive improvements in technology which can be expected, the second half of this reserve will cost a good deal more to extract than the first half. If consumption should expand at a rate approaching that of 1830 to 1930, there promises to be an acute shortage within a generation. (Skelton, 1934) </li> <li> Slide 9 </li> <li> Ultimately recoverable reserves of copper 1930-2010 </li> <li> Slide 10 </li> <li> Forecasts of coppers intensity of use Sources: Chase Econometrics World Copper Outlook, March 1984. Brook Hunt evidence to the US International Trade Commission, May 1984. WBMS and IMF for actuals. </li> <li> Slide 11 </li> <li> Refined zinc usage: a 1982 forecast Sources: ILZSG, SRI Metallic Minerals Programme 1982 </li> <li> Slide 12 </li> <li> Refined zinc usage: details Sources: ILZSG, SRI Metallic Minerals Programme 1982 </li> <li> Slide 13 </li> <li> Copper usage, production &amp; capacity Source: ICSG press releases, July 2008 &amp; June 2009 </li> <li> Slide 14 </li> <li> Copper mine %utilisation: 1973-2007 Western world. Sources: RTZ Mine Information System, IWCC, ICSG, WBMS. </li> <li> Slide 15 </li> <li> Output of Escondida &amp; Grasberg: 1989 to 2007 Source: IWCC Survey of Copper Capacity, March 2008 </li> <li> Slide 16 </li> <li> Output of mines producing both copper and molybdenum Source: Raw Materials Database, Raw Materials Group, Sweden </li> </ul>