a new chinese market bonanza in the making? a new chinese market bonanza in the making? diverse,...
TRANSCRIPT
A New Chinese Market Bonanza in the Making? A New Chinese Market Bonanza in the Making?
Diverse, Gigantic, Hi-growth, Needy, and Unpretentious
Jim Cook
China-phile since 1985
Sponsored by : The Confucius Institute Wayne State University
Confucius Institute
Wayne State UniversitySlide 2 of 16
April 24, 2014
Confucius Institute
Wayne State UniversitySlide 3 of 16
April 24, 2014
Urban China’s Values & Exemplars
Rural China’s Values & Exemplars
The Urban Rural Divides & Consequences
Central Government Response & Hopes
Potential Impacts on You Personally
AgendaAgenda
Confucius Institute
Wayne State UniversitySlide 4 of 16
April 24, 2014
Urban China – Familiar ValuesUrban China – Familiar Values
Source: The Rural Way (农道 ) © 2011 by: Sun Jun - 孙君
Behaviorial Drivers of the Chinese Cities’ dwellers
Confucius Institute
Wayne State UniversitySlide 5 of 16
April 24, 2014
Urban ExemplarsUrban Exemplars
Zhōu1 Ēn1Lái2 ( 周恩来 )Jiǎng3 Jiè4Shí2 ( 蒋介石 )
Chang Kai-Shek(in Cantonese)
Confucius Institute
Wayne State UniversitySlide 6 of 16
April 24, 2014
Rural China’s Cultural ValuesRural China’s Cultural Values
Source: The Rural Way (Nóng2 Dào4 - 农道 ) © 2011 by: Sūn1 Jūn1 - 孙君
Behaviorial Drivers of the Chinese Countryside’s Farmers
Confucius Institute
Wayne State UniversitySlide 7 of 16
April 24, 2014
Rural ExemplarsRural Exemplars
Máo2 Zé2Dōng1 ( 毛澤東 ) Péng2 Dé4Huái2 ( 彭德怀 )
Confucius Institute
Wayne State UniversitySlide 8 of 16
April 24, 2014
Urban Rural DivideUrban Rural Divide
Per capita net annual income (2009) divide:
Urban: 17,175 Yuan ($2,525) Rural: 5,153 Yuan ($758) Note: 30% of Urban
Education divide
Digital divide
Land confiscation
Polluted, Arid
Being abandoned
In 2004, 2000 laid off people barricaded a street
Confucius Institute
Wayne State UniversitySlide 9 of 16
April 24, 2014
Educational Divide – Educational Divide – High School DataHigh School Data
Source:
Source: Gāo1Kǎo3 高考 takers 2003
Confucius Institute
Wayne State UniversitySlide 10 of 16
April 24, 2014
Educational Divide – Educational Divide – College DataCollege Data
Note: Only 7 rural, minority, women attend Peking University & TsingHua! Source: REAP of Stanford U.
Confucius Institute
Wayne State UniversitySlide 11 of 16
April 24, 2014
Digital Divide - Digital Divide - DataData
Source: Rural Education Action Project conducted at Stanford University (2010)
Confucius Institute
Wayne State UniversitySlide 12 of 16
April 24, 2014
ShanDong, DongLu VillageShanDong, DongLu Village
Confucius Institute
Wayne State UniversitySlide 13 of 16
April 24, 2014
Mass unrest and sporadic instability
Migrant and unemployed workers
Resentful of regional imbalances’ wealth gap
Hù4Kǒu3 户口 discrimination against rural families
Problems associated with one child policy
Diminishing faith in the system/Party
Resulting in …Resulting in …
Confucius Institute
Wayne State UniversitySlide 14 of 16
April 24, 2014
Oct. 2005, “New Rural Development” became a national strategy Charged with enhancing productivity, raising living standards, improving rural
culture, & promoting neat & clean villages with democratic administrations
“The Three Rural Issues” 三农问题 : Farmers, Agriculture, & Land Funding >$1 Trillion over 20 years; the biggest project in the world? Numerous initiatives with regrettable failure rates (per The Rural Way) Confronted by structural flaws:
Urban Policy wonks making decisions about what’s good for Rural Folks Central bias to “one size fits all” when villages are intrinsically idiosyncratic Government jealousies as this cuts across several ministerial jurisdictions Agenda to modernize the countryside like the city – cars, appliances, order Agenda to have countryside demand make up for loss of export demand Lost sight of environmental pollution and rural folks own wants and needs!
Central Government ResponseCentral Government Response
Confucius Institute
Wayne State UniversitySlide 15 of 16
April 24, 2014
Entrepreneuring opportunity: Hi Needs, Lo Competition, Lo Cost Entry, No Hi-Tech Hurdles (much like the East 30 years ago)!
NGO employment opportunity: Excellent Charter Alignment, Highly Active, Well Funded, Ineffectual to date (needs new approach).
Personal employment opportunity: Recognized need for passion and creativity (e.g., entrepreneuring, policies, …), Receptive to leapfrog technology (esp. Medical, IT, agriculture, “green”), Unrecognized need for Expert Systems and Real-time local auction systems, Obvious need for technical and vocational teachers (in Chinese, mostly).
Most of all, an unparalleled opportunity to immerse yourself in an historic quality-of-life raising experience!
Potential Impacts on You PersonallyPotential Impacts on You Personally
Confucius Institute
Wayne State UniversitySlide 16 of 16
April 24, 2014
Questions and Comments
Take this with you: 三 农 问 题 (Sān1 Nóng2 Wèn4Tí2)
Thank you, in particular, Dr. Li Liang, for hosting and encouraging this topic!
This (4.6 MB) presentation is on the Internet at:
http://cha4mot.com/China-rural.ppt
Related links: http://cha4mot.com/crr http://cha4mot.com/theruralway.html
We’re Open (for discussion)!We’re Open (for discussion)!
Confucius Institute
Wayne State UniversitySlide 17 of 16
April 24, 2014