A Keystone Battle in Pennsylvania: Demographics and Tactics for

VictoryMark Harris, Campaign Manager

Toomey for Senate

The Final Score

• Toomey : 51.1% - Sestak 48.9%• Carried 60 of 67 counties including

Democratic heavy southwestern PA

The Players

• Pat Toomey– Former Congressman from Lehigh Valley (99-05)– Small business owner– President of the Club for Growth– Worked on Wall St– Spent a year doing consulting in China in 1990

The Players

• Joe Sestak– Retired Admiral (30+ years of – Incumbent Congressman from Philadelphia

suburbs– Very liberal voting record– Strong supporter of Obama administration

Economic RealignmentPre – 2004 Post – 2004

Upper Class Upper Class

Upper Middle Class Upper Middle Class

Middle Class Middle Class

Lower Middle Class Lower Middle Class

Lower Class Lower Class

Target Demographics

• Upper middle class suburban women– Philadelphia suburbs– Fiscally conservative– Socially liberal

• Lower middle class men– Southwest PA– Fiscally conservative – Socially conservative

Obama Changes the Game

• Summer of 2009– Healthcare Townhall phenomenon excites and

unites GOP base– Upper class and upper middle class flee

Democratic coalition over national debt and perceived threat to existing healthcare arrangement

– Lower middle class begin to waver even though healthcare aimed at them

Obamacare & Obama Generic Ballot

• Throughout the campaign our ballot lead would correspond within 2-4pts to the net disapproval of Obamacare, 3-5pts to the net Republican advantage

Persuasion

• Began two week aggressive media campaign immediately post-primary to stage race on ideological grounds– Statewide network tv– Heavy in senior and target demo shows

• All media efforts post-primary paint Joe Sestak as outside of the mainstream and out of touch with economic concerns of middle class

Identification

• Participated in a microtargetting program in June 2010

• 22 phone centers plus phone from home program placed over 4 million voter id calls to identify both Obama support and support for top of ticket

Turnout

• Traditional GOTV plan using hard ID data plus microtargetting data to build universe of 3.2 million voters

• Targeted GOTV effort to Presidential voting only Republicans– Door to door canvas for three weeks leading up in

high density area– Phones to 1 of 4 voters: 4 times in run up to

election

Online

• $750,000 in online spend post Labor day• Targeted to key demographics thru Facebook,

YouTube, Google, and targeted websites

The Lessons

• TV is declining, but not dead yet• Message discipline in a divided media

environment is key• Presidential election lessons do not apply

(mostly)• HOW DOES THIS GET ME VOTES