A Journey insideresearch philosophy

Farzad Khosrowshahi Salford University

SPARC 2011

A Journey insideresearch philosophy

Farzad Khosrowshahi Salford University

SPARC 2011

You are fired!

Not like that!

Like that!

Bills of Quantities? They are not even accurate!

QUIET PLEASE! I AM HYPOTHESISING

“The Management of project cash flow can be aligned with business objectives”

“The forecast of project cash flow can improve significantly”

“The management of project cash flow can improve significantly”

HYPO: is your common sense which you intend to test: e.g. ‘the 3-in-1 vaccine causes autism’

MY AIM

“Develop a framework for forecasting and management of project cash flow in line with

business objectives”

-Develop a Project Cash flow model?-Develop a new project cash flow model?

-Develop a mathematical project cash flow model?....

(what is wrong with current ones?)

the next sentence coming out of your mouth is your aim…

Also consider...

LIKE-interest

-your work

DATA-availability

-ability to analyse

Industry Vs.

Scientific Research

AIMChange one

word and the whole thing

changes

AIM

Ontology MethodologyEpistemology

Objectivism

Constructivism

Positivism

Interpretivism

Deductive

Inductive

What exists &define ‘truth’ of existence

Knowledge supporting existence & truth& how we know it

Reasoning towards new knowledge

Truth out there to be discovered

Create own truth

Existence independent of actors

Continuous state of revision

Rules of Logic: move from general to specific

Generalisation (theory) form observation &analysis

Methods

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY[they say Ontology & Epistemology standpoint lead to selection of appropriate methodology]

BUTS…

EXISTENCE –WHAT IS IT?Objectivism: Existence Independent of actors?!

Positivism: Truth to be discovered?!……

Existence independent of humans;Before life on earth!

Existence independent of humans;Before life on earth!

Existence because, with or by usExistence because, with or by us

Questioning the certainty of this!Questioning the certainty of this!

EXISTENCE Objectivism: Existence Independent of actors?!

Positivism: Truth to be discovered?! .........

An elusive phenomenon: what is existence in the first place... ”I think, therefore I am” , Descartes

time-dependent process static state

Existence: a paradoxical conjunction of being & be-coming(permanency & change)

e.g. River exits but Cannot step in the same river twice (Heraclitus ~500BC)

e.g. Research Aim: ‘develop a retrofit model of buildings at UK coastlines’(‘UK coastlines’ has permanency but ‘the UK coastlines’ continuously change)

”I think, therefore I am” , Descartes time-dependent process static state

Existence: a paradoxical conjunction of being & be-coming(permanency & change)

e.g. River exits but Cannot step in the same river twice (Heraclitus ~500BC)

e.g. Research Aim: ‘develop a retrofit model of buildings at UK coastlines’(‘UK coastlines’ has permanency but ‘the UK coastlines’ continuously change)

-Newton-Gravity: Did he uncover some reality about the world or invented a model to explain a physical behaviour?-Newton-Gravity: Did he uncover some reality about the world or invented a model to explain a physical behaviour?

-Newton: world is changing but RULES are fixed :-Newton: world is changing but RULES are fixed : Rules>>ScienceRules>>Science

EXISTENCE An elusive phenomenon: what is existence in the first place...

3 different examples: [Ontology] & [Epistemology]

-Chair: [O] It exits; define the truth about it [E] we know, I can hit my head

-God: [O] defined and intimated its existence [E] see reflection of creation:

-Gravity : [O] the concept exits; [E] we feel it; mathematically defined; transformed industries;BUT: dismissed as a force by Einstein

3 different examples: [Ontology] & [Epistemology]

-Chair: [O] It exits; define the truth about it [E] we know, I can hit my head

-God: [O] defined and intimated its existence [E] see reflection of creation:

-Gravity : [O] the concept exits; [E] we feel it; mathematically defined; transformed industries;BUT: dismissed as a force by Einstein

[O]&[E] discussions of human dependant or independent is debatable:>>> [O]&[E] discussions of human dependant or independent is debatable:>>>

BUT Even rules are elusive and not fixed

BUT Even rules are elusive and not fixed

EXISTENCE An elusive phenomenon: what is existence in the first place...

1- What is here? [Kant][Heraclitus on change]: not the same table.

2-Where is it? [Heisenberg uncertainty]: several places at same time

3-When is now? [Einstein Special Relativity]: when was it here? Whose time?

4- What period? [Einstein General relativity]: how long been here? Effect of gravity on time ground level live nanosecond longer

1- What is here? [Kant][Heraclitus on change]: not the same table.

2-Where is it? [Heisenberg uncertainty]: several places at same time

3-When is now? [Einstein Special Relativity]: when was it here? Whose time?

4- What period? [Einstein General relativity]: how long been here? Effect of gravity on time ground level live nanosecond longer

Continuo [Ontology] & [Epistemology] debate:

-OK, we can create our own rules, reality & truth-LOOK, irrespective of opinions NOW THIS TABLE IS HERE (objectivism)

Continuo [Ontology] & [Epistemology] debate:

-OK, we can create our own rules, reality & truth-LOOK, irrespective of opinions NOW THIS TABLE IS HERE (objectivism)

BUT IS IT?BUT IS IT?

HISTORY: EXISTENCE & TECHNOLOGYEach age: Technological advances as a metaphor for existence (cosmos & God)

By 17th century: Musical of spheres: musical & geometrical harmony: (Ruler, compass, architecture, no’s)God the geometer

After 17th Century (Newton/Galileo): Clockwork universe:(need for navigation & accurate timing): God the watchmaker

Post Heisenberg (1920s): Uncertain universe: God the gambler: Einstein “does not play dice with universe”

Modern Era: Cosmic computer: universe is a big information processing system: God the programmer

Post Hawking: Quantum fluctuation: thing from nothing:God the observer – creation without creator

Each age: Technological advances as a metaphor for existence (cosmos & God)

By 17th century: Musical of spheres: musical & geometrical harmony: (Ruler, compass, architecture, no’s)God the geometer

After 17th Century (Newton/Galileo): Clockwork universe:(need for navigation & accurate timing): God the watchmaker

Post Heisenberg (1920s): Uncertain universe: God the gambler: Einstein “does not play dice with universe”

Modern Era: Cosmic computer: universe is a big information processing system: God the programmer

Post Hawking: Quantum fluctuation: thing from nothing:God the observer – creation without creator

CONFUSED?

Bet not the case for you! No worries...

-Deep Philosophical issues that engaged philosophers form the time of Greeks.

Karl Popper (Influential modern philosopher) “scientists rarely follow the procedure: when a discovery is made, scientists

work backward to construct the hypothesis..”

Bet not the case for you! No worries...

-Deep Philosophical issues that engaged philosophers form the time of Greeks.

Karl Popper (Influential modern philosopher) “scientists rarely follow the procedure: when a discovery is made, scientists

work backward to construct the hypothesis..”

Ontology & Epistemology standpoint lead to selection of appropriate methodology

NOW WHAT?

-With Data: the popular rotational empiricism… BUT.. Careful!-With Data: the popular rotational empiricism… BUT.. Careful!

Assume world is rational reflected in human reasoning.So can use logical thread to make discoveries : with/without data

-A paradox:Deductive Reasoning &Contribution to Knowledge

1- all school boys are under 12 2- Tim is a school boy 3- so Tim is under 12. [3 tells us no more than what is in 1 & 2. So where is new knowledge? (there, to be discovered?]

-As good as our assumptions:5 Axioms of Euclid geometry

worked perfectly but wrong: (Kaluza 1919 other dimensions space is curved)

BUT Metaphysics revitalised with advances in physics; computing & cosmology AI: >>reopened free will & mind-bodyBig Bang >> need for a kick startQuantum Physics >> how observed and observer are interwoven Chaos theory >>complexity of relationship bet permanence &change

BUT Metaphysics revitalised with advances in physics; computing & cosmology AI: >>reopened free will & mind-bodyBig Bang >> need for a kick startQuantum Physics >> how observed and observer are interwoven Chaos theory >>complexity of relationship bet permanence &change

When Metaphysics (science of science) plunged in 19th century (Kant & Hume argued in favour of deductive empiricism).When Metaphysics (science of science) plunged in 19th century (Kant & Hume argued in favour of deductive empiricism).

MATHEMATICS – THE BEAUTIFUL MATHS

-Maths: express underlying order of universe

-Why are fundamental laws of nature mathematical & works so well?

-Physicist: Wigner “Unreasonable effectiveness of maths”

-Descartes: maths reflects divine perfection of God’s worldly

-Barrow: maths is the only religion that can prove it is a religion (system of thought based on unproven truth)

-Maths: express underlying order of universe

-Why are fundamental laws of nature mathematical & works so well?

-Physicist: Wigner “Unreasonable effectiveness of maths”

-Descartes: maths reflects divine perfection of God’s worldly

-Barrow: maths is the only religion that can prove it is a religion (system of thought based on unproven truth)

Without dataEinstein master of ‘Power of Thought & thought Experiment’ (rational though)“I believe that pure thought is competence enough to comprehend the world”

-Seal it with maths. (just as he did)

Without dataEinstein master of ‘Power of Thought & thought Experiment’ (rational though)“I believe that pure thought is competence enough to comprehend the world”

-Seal it with maths. (just as he did)

MATHEMATICS – WHO OWNS IT

BUT1931: Kurt Godel: ...changed everything:

proved some things in maths are impossible!‘This statement is a lie’

(self referencing paradox )

BUT1931: Kurt Godel: ...changed everything:

proved some things in maths are impossible!‘This statement is a lie’

(self referencing paradox )

WE NEED TO SORT THINGS OUT WITH MATHS-In most fields theories are sealed with maths

BUT -In physics & quantum physics it is often the starting point

WE NEED TO SORT THINGS OUT WITH MATHS-In most fields theories are sealed with maths

BUT -In physics & quantum physics it is often the starting point

MATHEMATICS – WHO OWNS IT

Did maths exist or did we create it?

-Schools of thoughtFormalists (weekends): Mathematics is human invention

-First used simple maths to count sheep: related to objects

Platonists (weekdays): Maths has independent existence -Then maths gained life of its own:

then more abstract X, Ythen Strange rules: complex no’, matrixthen symbol manipulationProhibiting us to do things!

Did maths exist or did we create it?

-Schools of thoughtFormalists (weekends): Mathematics is human invention

-First used simple maths to count sheep: related to objects

Platonists (weekdays): Maths has independent existence -Then maths gained life of its own:

then more abstract X, Ythen Strange rules: complex no’, matrixthen symbol manipulationProhibiting us to do things!

MATHEMATICS – WHO OWNS IT

If the world has its own algorithmic rules – maths – then world is a computer

Nature has created a language to unlock its own secrets - MATHS!!!!

If the world has its own algorithmic rules – maths – then world is a computer

Nature has created a language to unlock its own secrets - MATHS!!!!

NOW BACK TO PLANT EARTH<RESEARCH PLAN>

-Why need it?-Probably more important than other stuff

-Research: travel in tunnel-Aim: light at end-Research Plan: roadmap

Spot the 7 differences

Spot the 7 differences

Spot the X differences

Spot the X differences (14)

-factor analysis

Research Design

Understand Project cashflow

Align with business objectives(what should be)

Adopt/Develop a forecasting model(forecast of what is)

Criteria for use of model

Examine existing models

Use of existing model Develop a new model

Determine type of model:Math/Heuristic/Elemental/AI/etc.

Understand business objectives

Formulate Decision Framework

Literature review

Analysis

-Interviews

Data: questionnaire

Case study

Data: interviews

Statistical Analysis

Prototype

Process & Analyse profiles

Define shape parameters

Maths: to simulate shape parameters

Relate shape variables to shape parameters

Define shape variables

Methods / Tools

-factor analysis

Research Design

Understand Project cashflow

Align with business objectives(what should be)

Adopt/Develop a forecasting model(forecast of what is)

Criteria for use of model

Examine existing models

Use of existing model Develop a new model

Determine type of model:Math/Heuristic/Elemental/AI/etc.

Understand business objectives

Formulate Decision Framework

Literature review

Analysis

-Interviews

Data: questionnaire

Case study

Data: interviews

Statistical Analysis

Prototype

Process & Analyse profiles

Define shape parameters

Maths: to simulate shape parameters

Relate shape variables to shape parameters

Define shape variables

Methods / Tools

Want you back!

Want you to reflect on your experience! Want you to talk with

Paul Chynoweth from Salford about Prof Doc.!

Thank You