a flourishing green economy without tar sands or pipelines

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com castelvetranoselinunte.it

YES!A Flourishing Green Economy Without Tar Sands or Pipelines

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com

TEN MINUTES, FIVE THOUGHTS

1 2 3

4 5


The power

of our visionmust be stronger than

the power of our fears

1


The Skeptic’s Fear of Life without Oil


Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

“The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams.”

― Eleanor Roosevelt



So what is our vision of a beautiful, desirable future?



?


Two Possible Futures

One YES

One NO



Which path will you take?


Solar, Wind, Wave100% RenewablesGreen BuildingsGreen CitiesCyclingElectric TransitElectric CarsCarsharingOrganic FarmingEcoForestry

Green ChemistryBiomimicrySmart TechEducationInnovationSoftwareRobotics3-D PrintingSoul & Eco-TourismHolistic Healthcare

Saying YES as well as NO


Think Globally,

VOTE

LOCALLY

On November 15th, in BC’s Civic Elections

BRING IT HOME

THE CLIMATE CRISIS…


We don’t need to vilify fossil fuels.

We can praise them, and then say

“Enough!”

2


For 500,000 years, we harvested the Sun’s energy through firewood


For 300 years, we have been harvestingit through fossil fuels


It was fossil fuelsthat launched the Industrial Age,

and the modern world.


It is solar energy expressed through fossil fuels

that has made advanced engineering, solar PV and electric vehicles possible.


The Age of Fossil Fuels has been the essential

LAUNCH RAMPfor the Solar Age

500,000 yearsFirewood

300 yearsFossil Fuels

1,750,000,000 yearsSolar Energy


For the next 1,750,000,000 years, we will be able to harvest the Sun’s energy

directly through advanced solar technologies


The Age of Firewood

The Age of Fossil Fuels

The Solar Age


1977: $77

1997: $7

2013: $0.7

Price of Solar PVper Watt

A hundredfold fall in the price of solar PV

since 1977


100 GW in 2012

Solar PV 7000% increase since 2000

137 GWin 2013

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.comKagoshima Nanatsujima 70 MW Solar, Japan


More solar energy reaches Earth in an hour than humans use in a year.


Guy Dauncey 2011www.earthfuture.com

A billion years

The Sun will not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.

That’s 100,000 periods of 10,000 years


Guy Dauncey 2011www.earthfuture.com

A billion years

The Sun will not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.

And with every passing year, solar technology will improve

and fall in price.


By 2020, every south-facing roof without 4 kW solar could lose its owner up to $1,000 a year


By 2020, every commercial roof that is not solar could lose its owner $10,000 a year


Vauban, Freiburg, Germany

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com T’Sou-ke Nation Solar Project

T-Sou’ke Chief Gordon Planes:“First Nations have lived for thousands of years on this continent without fossil fuels. It is appropriate that First

Nations lead the way out of dependency and addiction to fossil fuels and to rely on the power of the elements, the sun,

the wind and the sea once again.”


Kennedy Bridge over the Rhine, Germany


Solar railwayParis to

Amsterdam

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com Solar Stadium, Taiwan


Mass production = falling prices



BC, 2014: 4 kW PV System $16,000 + tax4,400 kWh year


Solar Economics in BC, 20204 kW PV system

15.5 cents kwh, 3% per year increaseCash down

Cost per kW $1,6004 kW + 5% tax $6,720

kWh per year 4,400 25 year savings $25,600Profit +$19,000


C

We Need toChange the Game

from Defence To Offense

3


solutions

will build


solutions

will build

!!!!!!


September 2014

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com www.thesolutionsproject.org


Natural gas:5 jobs per $1 million

Solar: 14.5 jobs per

$1 million

Building Retrofits:17 jobs per $1 million

Mass Transit:22 jobs per $1 million


$100 spent on imported oil$70 leaves the country

$22 goes to the oil company$3 to the credit card company, $8 to the gas station

owner.

$100 spent on renewable energy may circulate and be spent

10 times before it leaves the country, creating demand and jobs worth $1,000 in value.


If the $90 trillion expected to be invested in global

infrastructure in the next 15 years is done in a low-

carbon manner, it could “cost about the same as

conventional infrastructure, but deliver

significantly greater economic, social, and

environmental benefits in the long-run.”

www.newclimateeconomy.report

September 2014


“After a year of hard work we reached a clear conclusion:

“Yes, it’s possible to have better growth and better climate;

“Yes, it’s possible to create jobs, improve the economy, and

reduce emissions;

“Yes, it’s possible to make these fundamental changes.”

www.newclimateeconomy.report


$100B invested in wind or solar will produce more energy than oil - Kepler Chevreux, French investment bank,

September 2014


EROCI = energy return on capital invested

By 2020, all renewable technologies have a significantly superior net EROCI to oil

at both $100 and $125 a barrel.

By 2035, solar will produce double the energy of oil for the same money. For onshore wind, the net

energy will outstrip oil by nearly 6:1.


Barry Saxifrage, May 2014

Reality Check

The Rapid Progressof Renewables…?


Reality Check

Barry Saxifrage, May 2014


The BEST future economy will be a green sustainable economy

with far less use of fossil fuels.

Leaving 80% of the fossil fuels in the ground will create

a better economy.

In a nutshell…


For light transport, we can have

Transportation without Oil and the economy will keep going

4

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com5% shift of trips to walking


Istanbul,Turkey


Seoul, South Korea



The HighlineConverted Railway,

New York


Brooklyn Bridge Remix/Redux Terreform and Michael Sorkin Studio



London: a Garden Bridge across the ThamesThomas Heatherwick

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com15% trip shift to cycling


In Holland, cycling is the main mode of transport for 31% of the people

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com San Francisco Bike Lane

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com Vancouver Bike Lane


Granville Street BridgeVancouver’s Imagined Future


Electric Bikes


The Copenhagen Wheel

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com15% Trip Shift to Transit and LRT

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com Curitiba, Brazil


OLEVOn-Line Electric Vehicle, South Korea


Mulhouse, Germany

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com Shift to Telework


Cisco Systems

Four people in Beijing

Five people in Vancouver


5% Trip Shift to Ride-Sharing


See

Shift to Car Sharing

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com Peer-to-Peer Car-Sharing

Vehicle owners can earn up to $300 a month

www.relayrides.com


North America car-sharing forecast

4.4 million users by 2016David Zhao, automotive research analyst with Frost & Sullivan


Sustainable urban design for walking, cycling and transit



Suburban streets being calmed and reclaimed


Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.restreets.org

Fast, dangerous streets being slowed

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com 50% Trip Shift to Electric

Vehicles


Top

Hiroko EV


Top



Nissan Leaf Electric - 120 km range


Tesla Model X: 300-400 km range


Nissan Leaf Electric Pick-UpD-I-Y Conversion



Honda solar electric car charging


No tax, saving $4,000.Annual driving fee 7 x cheaper than a regular car.No parking charges anywhere in Norway.

No ferry charges, no road tolls around Oslo.Allowed to drive in the bus lanes.Free municipal EV recharging.

Electricity $10 a week vs $55 for a regular car.Overall savings $369 a month.21 models to choose from.


The Falling Price of EV Lithium Batteries


Cars & light trucks

5% shift to walking = 95% of oil demand15% shift to cycling = 80% …15% shift to transit/LRT = 65% …5% shift to telework = 60% …5% shift to ride-sharing = 55% …5% shift to car-sharing = 50% …50% vehicles hybrid EV = 30% …50% of vehicles electric = 5% …Lightweight design 50% = 2.5% … 100% vehicles EVs = 0.0%


www.bcsea.org


Long Distance Electric Freight

Renault Radiance Dutch concept electric truck

Average 18-wheeler 6.5 mpg Super-efficient designs 9 mpg


Long Distance Electric Freight

With difficulty: EV Trucks not ready.

Biofuels questionable.

Hydrogen not happening.


With difficulty: and a long way off



Future Boing Liquid Hydrogen Plane

With difficulty: and a long way off


Benefit CorporationsGreen Business CertificationPublic BankingBasic IncomeValues-Based BankingMicrolendingCommunity CurrenciesAn Entrepreneurial StateGreen BondsThe Sharing Economy

Carbon TaxesGenuine Progress IndicatorsLocal Business SynergyCooperatives Youth Businesses & CoopsFirst Nations BusinessesMinority BusinessesSerious Tax ReformClosure of Tax HavensTargeted Growth vs no-growth

BEYOND CAPITALISM… A Flourishing Green Co-operative Economy 5


$10 SpecialPrice



Fall2014



www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey



Dream itWish it

Do it



Josephine Wallwww.josephinewall.co.uk



www.earthfuture.com

a flourishing green economy without tar sands or pipelines

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