a flourishing green economy without fossil fuels

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com

A Flourishing

Green Economy without Fossil Fuels

GUY DAUNCEY


$10 SpecialPrice


Building a Sustainable Energy Future for British Columbia

BCSEA 2013 www.bcsea.org


Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com

As we burn the fossil fuels…

Guy Dauncey 2007Guy Dauncey 2007www.earthfuture.cowww.earthfuture.com m

CO2 CO2CO2

CO2

CO2 CO2

100 million tonnes a day = 4 million tonnes an hour = 67,000 tonnes a minute = 1,000 tonnes a second


Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com Smithore Dreamstime.com


Burning fossil fuelsand destroying Earth’s forests Is causing THIS


Climate Emergency


If global warming exceeds 1.6°C up to

31% of Earth’s species

will be committed to extinction,

having nowhere to go to escape the rising heat



GDP =GrossDepletion of the

Planet


The Skeptic’s Fear of Life without Oil


The power

of our visionmust be stronger than

the power of our fears



“The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams.”

― Eleanor Roosevelt



So what is our vision of a beautiful, desirable future?



?


Two Possible Futures

One YES

One NO



Which path will you take?


we don’t need to vilify fossil fuels.

We can praise them, and then say

“Enough!”

but…


For 30,000 years, we harvested the Sun’s energy through firewood


For 300 years, we have been harvestingit through fossil fuels


It was fossil fuelsthat launched the Industrial Age,

and the modern world.


It is solar energy expressed through fossil fuels

that has made advanced engineering, solar PV and electric vehicles possible.


The Age of Fossil Fuels has been the essential

LAUNCH RAMPfor the Solar Age

30,000 yearsFirewood

300 yearsFossil Fuels

1,750,000,000 yearsSolar Energy


The Age of Firewood

The Age of Fossil Fuels

The Solar Age


Guy Dauncey 2011www.earthfuture.com

A billion years

The Sun will not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.

That’s 100,000 periods of 10,000 years


Guy Dauncey 2011www.earthfuture.com

A billion years

The Sun will not begin to turn into a Red Giant for more than a billion years.

And with every passing year, solar technology will improve

and fall in price.


1977: $77

1997: $7

2013: $0.7

Price of Solar PVper Watt

A hundredfold fall in the price of solar PV

since 1977


100 GW in 2012

Solar PV 7000% increase since 2000

137 GWin 2013

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.comKagoshima Nanatsujima 70 MW Solar, Japan


Williston Lake, Northern BC438,000 acres


Floating Solar on 10% of Williston Lakecould generate 5,500 GWh a year

= 500,000 households


Floating Solar on 10% of Lake Okanagancould generate 1,000 GWh a year

= 90,000 households


More solar energy reaches Earth in an hour than humans use in a year.


C

Change the Game

from Defence To Offense


solutions

will build


solutions

will build

!!!!!!


By 2020, every south-facing roof without 4 kW solar could lose its owner up to $1,000 a year


By 2020, every commercial roof that is not solar could lose its owner $10,000 a year


Vauban, Freiburg, Germany


Kennedy Bridge over the Rhine, Germany


Solar railwayParis to

Amsterdam

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com Solar Stadium, Taiwan


Mass production = falling prices


Solar, Wind, Wave100% RenewablesGreen BuildingsGreen CitiesCyclingElectric TransitElectric CarsCarsharingOrganic FarmingEcoForestry

Green ChemistryBiomimicrySmart TechEducationInnovationSoftwareRobotics3-D PrintingSoul & Eco-TourismHolistic Healthcare

Saying YES as well as NO


T-Sou’ke First NationVancouver Island


T-Sou’ke Chief Gordon Planes:

“First Nations have lived for thousands of years

on this continent without fossil fuels.

It is appropriate that First Nations

lead the way out of dependency and

addiction to fossil fuels and rely on the power

of the elements, the sun, the wind

and the sea once again.”

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com T’Sou-ke Nation Solar Project


“We have a strong desire to re-establish our identity

and develop our community resilience to provide a safe, nurturing world with opportunities for our children

and grandchildren.”


September 2014


10 kw system, $2.60 a watt


Natural gas:5 jobs per $1 million

Solar: 14.5 jobs per

$1 million

Building Retrofits:17 jobs per $1 million

Mass Transit:22 jobs per $1 million


$100B invested in wind or solar will produce more energy than oil - Kepler Chevreux, French investment bank,

September 2014

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com www.thesolutionsproject.org


The BEST future economy will be a green sustainable economy

with far less use of fossil fuels.

Leaving 80% of the fossil fuels in the ground will create

a better economy.

In a nutshell…


For local transportation, we can have

Transportation without Oil and the economy will keep going

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.comMake walking fun and joyful


Istanbul,Turkey


Seoul, South Korea



The HighlineConverted Railway,

New York


Brooklyn Bridge Remix/Redux Terreform and Michael Sorkin Studio



London: a Garden Bridge across the ThamesThomas Heatherwick

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com More cycling


In Holland, cycling is the main mode of transport for 31% of the people

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com San Francisco Bike Lane

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com Vancouver Bike Lane


Granville Street BridgeVancouver’s Imagined Future


Electric Bikes


The Copenhagen Wheel

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.comSolar Bike Lane, Holland

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com Better Local Transit


OLEVOn-Line Electric Vehicle, South Korea

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com Shift to Telework


Cisco Systems

Four people in Ottawa

Five people at Kwantlen Polytechnic


More Safe Community Ride-Sharing


See

More Car Sharing

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com Peer-to-Peer Car-Sharing

Vehicle owners can earn up to $300 a month

www.relayrides.com


North America car-sharing forecast

4.4 million users by 2016David Zhao, automotive research analyst with Frost & Sullivan


Sustainable urban design for walking, cycling and transit



Suburban streets being calmed and reclaimed


Guy Dauncey 2013 www.earthfuture.com www.restreets.org

Fast, dangerous streets being slowed

Guy Dauncey 2014 Earthfuture.com More Electric Vehicles


Top

Hiroko EV


Top



Nissan Leaf Electric - 120 km range


Tesla Model X: 300-400 km range


Hybrid Trucks

VIA Motors V-Trux


More Hybrid Trucks

GM Silverado

GM Sierra


Nissan Leaf Electric Pick-UpD-I-Y Conversion



Honda solar electric car charging


No tax, saving $4,000.Annual driving fee 7 x cheaper than a regular car.No parking charges anywhere in Norway.

No ferry charges, no road tolls around Oslo.Allowed to drive in the bus lanes.Free municipal EV recharging.

Electricity $10 a week vs $55 for a regular car.Overall savings $369 a month.21 models to choose from.


The Falling Price of EV Lithium Batteries


Siemens ZeroCat all-electric car ferry, Norway 120 cars +360 passengers

10 minutes recharge, 30-minute trip800 kw, 400 kw battery bank. 10 knots


Benefit CorporationsGreen Business CertificationPublic BankingBasic IncomeValues-Based BankingMicrolendingCommunity CurrenciesAn Entrepreneurial StateGreen BondsA Sharing Economy

Carbon TaxesGenuine Progress IndicatorsLocal Business SynergyCooperatives Youth Businesses & CoopsFirst Nations BusinessesMinority BusinessesSerious Tax ReformClosure of Tax HavensTargeted Growth vs no-growth

BEYOND CAPITALISM…A Flourishing Green Co-operative Economy



www.slideshare.net/GuyDauncey



Dream itWish it

Do it



Josephine Wallwww.josephinewall.co.uk


If you want to make a difference, now would be a great time to do so.


Together, we can change the world

If you feel inspired, join the BCSEA

www.bcsea.org/join



www.earthfuture.com

a flourishing green economy without fossil fuels

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