A Crisis within the Crises in PakistanThe IDPs of Swat and Buner Districts

IFPRI Panel Discussion

Sohail Jehangir MalikChairman

Innovative Development Strategies (Pvt.) LtdInnovative Development Strategies (Pvt.) Ltd

August 12, 2009

Swat BunerArea (sq km) 5337 1865

Area and population of Swat and Buner

Area (sq km) 5337 1865Population ‘000’ (2004-05) 1577 656

May 20091. Armed Taliban back on

Mingora Swat roads as the TNSM rejects Darul Qaza

2. Taliban slap ‘curfew’, blow

8. Taliban ‘shaving beards’ to flee Swat

9. IDPs swell to over 1.4m: UN.10. Thousands flee as curfew p ,

up schools 3. Taliban in control of 90% of

Swat’. 4. PM orders all-out war, tells

l l b

relaxed 11. Pakistan facing one of

world’s worst displacement crises: UN.,

army to eliminate Taliban once and for all.

5. Operation Rah-e-Rast is launched

h d fl

12. Troops fight Taliban on Swat streets

13. UN issues $543m appeal for IDPs .

6. Thousands flee Swat7. NWFP govt. seeks global

emergency aid for IDPs

14. MQM wants ban on IDPs’ entry into Sindh.

May 2009 (contd.)

15. “IDPs leaving NWFP won’t get aid” Rahman Malik Min for Interior.

20. UN pleads for more cash for Swat displaced.

21. IDPs selling relief goods in h16. IDPs complain of not

receiving int’l and US aid. 17. 6,000 pregnant women in

Peshawar .22. IDPs protest closure of food

distribution points.camps.

18. IDPs exceed 2.9million - NA committee told. ICRC d id ti iti 19. ICRC suspends aid activities in Swat .

June 200923. UN awaits Govt nods for

li f k i B32. About 15,000 IDPs have come

to karachi says Sindh CMrelief work in Buner.24. Trapped residents emerge,

seek food in Swat.25. NWFP to engage NADRA,

UNHCR for the registration of

to karachi, says Sindh CM.33. IDPs being registered on war

footing.34. Jeay Sindh protest against

influx of IDPUNHCR for the registration of IDPs.

26. UN chief warns of severe crisis due to funding shortage.

27 IDPs number distorted by

35. US warns against diseases outbreak in IDPs.

36. Govt urged to devise rehabilitation plan for di l d f27. IDPs number distorted by

duplication in registeration28. Holbroke assures full help in

reconstruction phase.29. US offers to increase IDPs aid

b $

pdisplaced farmers..

37. IDPs registration temporarily stopped.

38. Only 25% of estimated aid for IDPs received: UNby $200m

30. Food shortage worsening in restive Malakand areas.

31. 2.5 million IDPs expected to i i i 2009

IDPs received: UN39. IDPs being registered on war

footing.40. Displaced persons face

discrimination at IDP campsremain in camps in 2009. discrimination at IDP camps

Only 1.96 million of 4.61 million registered IDPs Eligible on July 11, 2009g J y ,

Total w ith CNIC not available , 0.17

Total w ith multiple registerations 1 46registerations, 1.46

Total Eligible, 1.97

Total w ith CNIC Invalid, 0.29

Total w ith Multiple pidentities/aliens, 0.01

Total from outside affected areas , 0.27

Total w ith duplicate w ithin families , 0.45

Only a Small Proportion of IDPs i C J l 11 2009were in Camps on July 11, 2009

In Camps9%

Off CampOff-Camp 91%

Crops What happenedp Wheat Vegetables

pp Not harvested Not harvested

Tobacco Maize

Ri

Not harvested Cannot Plant

C Pl Rice SugarcaneHorticulture

Cannot Plant Cannot Plant

Horticulture Fruits/orchardsLivestock

Not Harvested Lost, Killed, Livestock Lost, Killed,

Marble/China Clay Gemstones

Closed down – no power! No market – high risk Gemstones

Forest and Timber Products

No market high risk No permissions – high risk

Household Crafts No resources – no market

Forced Repatriation Increased Physical Insecurityy y Strict Government Approvals required to function

– outsiders NOT permitted easily - Restrictions on local activities local activities

Poor or No Infrastructure Electricity for eight to ten hours onlyy g y No landline telephone and only UFONE cellular in some

places Virtually non functioning health, sanitation and y g ,

education system Ill functioning or closed markets Inadequate and ill designed relief mechanisms Inadequate and ill designed relief mechanisms -

95,462 IDPs families provided with Rs. 25,000 ATM Relief Cards

A 2008 Asian Development Bank Study of 32 Asian Countries Study of 32 Asian Countries

ranked Pakistan 2nd last in terms f it S i l P t ti of a composite Social Protection

Index

30

41

3030

3741

3633

29

38

3228

3540

45

nt (%

)

2622

29

22

28

15

2025

30

y he

adco

un

0

510

15

Pove

rty

0Punjab Sindh NWFP Balochistan Pakistan

1998-99 2000-01 2004-05

Source: World Bank

“Currently 77 million people, almost half the population, is food insecure in Pakistan - daily

l i i t k b l th i i d d calorie intake below the minimum recommended level”

-Report of the Prime Minister’s Task Force on Food Security (2008)Security (2008)

Punjab produces on average 16 to 17 million mt against consumption requirements of 12.5 million mt

NWFP largest wheat deficit and most vulnerable

i d hi h t ll ti required highest allocation -almost 2.3 million mt in 2007/08

Changes in domestic wheat marketing policies immediately g p yaffect NWFP supply situation

Porous borders with Afghanistan - large share of the allocated wheat does not reach intended wheat does not reach intended Provincial consumers

a recent nine pillared Poverty Reduction Strategy a recent nine pillared Poverty Reduction Strategy a Social Protection Strategy approved a couple of years agoy g

But No capacity or intent to implement

and No effective pressure or conditionality for it to do

so

Serious information asymmetries, moral hazard, adverse selection, insufficient property rights, no accountability or access to justice etc. all leading to accountability or access to justice etc. all leading to market and government failure

Very limited opportunity, security or empowermentP d i l d d l d Poor and manipulated data, poorer analyses and no voice or ownership of the people

Virtually no Monitoring and Evaluation Virtually no Monitoring and Evaluation Serious disconnects between what is stated and

what is actually intended, between existing and envisaged capacity and hence between what is envisaged capacity and hence between what is planned and what is eventually implemented

No processes for informed independent policy p p p ydebate and discussion

These once proud people have lost their di it d th i bilit t t t it L tdignity and their ability to protect it – Let us not forsake them.

Thank You So Much