1

AConceptual

JohnE.Thomas,MSEE,MBAPhDCandidate,ResearchAssociateAdvisor,Dr.ThomasSeager20May2016 SustainableEngineeringandtheBuiltEnvironment

FrameworkofCri>calInfrastructureResilience:integra(ngpeopleandcomplexsystems

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TSAluggagescreeningissues3000+bagsmissedtheirflight

Thursday12May2016

DarnellEarley,FlintEMPhoto:ZackWiIman/AP

Photo:RyanGarzaDetroitFreePress

Criminalchargesfiledagainst3governmentemployees 4/20/16

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SocialEcologyofInfrastructureResilience

Adapted(Masten,2010;Bronfenbrenner,1979)

Areaoffocus

PsychologicalSystems

BiologicalSystems

444Introduc>on Concepts Framework Yes,and…

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Photo:FelixPharandDeschenes

ResearchQues>ons

What?Theore(cal •  Parameters,processes,&relaYonships?

How?Conceptual •  Howtoconceptualizeresilience?

Why?Opera(onal

•  FacilitatemulYdisciplinarydialogue,beIersoluYons!

ConceptsIntroduc>on Framework Yes,and…

6

Whatisaframework?

•  Structureofideas&theories•  LogicalfoundaYononexisYngtheory•  Literaturereview•  Conceptual&visualrepresentaYon•  ProposiYonforempiricalverificaYon

Whydoweneedanotherone?

•  Currentf/w’sareinadequate•  MulYplecomplexadapYvesystems•  Human,socio-technicalfactors

•  Lackofcommonlanguage•  Enabledialogueamongdisciplines•  ContributetoholisYcproblemdefiniYon

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(Masten,2001)

Assets,risks,&bipolarvariablesw/main-effectonoutcomes

Risksw/main-effectonoutcomesModerator&risk-ac>vatedmoderators

ResilienceModelsProtec>ve Protec>ve-stabilizing

Variables&processes

Introduc>on Concepts Framework Yes,and…

8

Stressors/Shocks

Vulnerabilityfactors

ProtecYvefactors

BoundarycondiYons

(+/-)

ResilienceConcepts

ModelAdapted:(Masten,2001;Luthar,2000)(Hollnageletal,2011;Brofenbrenner,1979)

Outcomes

Space

Time

ConceptsIntroduc>on Framework Yes,and…

•  Moderatorvariables•  ProperYes&processes•  ComponentcharacterisYcs•  Bi-polar(+/-)

•  Risks,suscepYbility•  ProperYes&processes•  Componentthresholds•  Main-effect&operator

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Stressors/Shocks

Ecological

Technical

SocialVulnerabilityfactors

ProtecYvefactors

SystemsofSystems

(+/-)

ModelAdapted:(Masten,2001,2014;Luthar,2000)(Lerner,2006;Holling,2002;Smith&SYrling,2008)

Outcomes

Space

TimeMeaning

Context

Dimensions

ConceptsIntroduc>on

SETSResilienceConcepts

Framework Yes,and…

BoundarycondiYons

•  Systems&networks•  Dynamiccoupling•  Feedback•  Context•  Meaning

ResilienceRela>onalDynamics

Adapted(Bronfenbrenner,1979;Ungar,2013)

IndividualsçèEnvironments(groups)(systems)

ResilienceProcesses

•  Navigate&negoYateresources•  Recursive&reciprocalprocesses

ResilienceProperYes Outcomes

Impacts

ConceptsIntroduc>on Framework Yes,and…

DarnellEarley,FlintEMPhoto:ZackWiIman/AP

Adapted(Thomas,2016)

Environment=Infrastructures:energy,water,transportaYon…

SocialSystems

Infrastructures

Power

WaterRoads

TechnicalSystems

ResilienceProcesses

CoupledSocial-technicalSystemsSpace

TimeMeaning

Dimensions

ConceptsIntroduc>on Framework Yes,and…

•  Sensing—monitorsystemsstatevariables•  An>cipa>ng—imaginingpossiblestateoutcomes•  Adap>ng—changingstatevariables•  Learning—differenYate,integrate,&createknowledgeinformingsystembehaviors

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Individual&GroupResilienceAc(ons,behaviors,&ar(facts

(Park,Seager,Rao,ConverYno,&Linkov2013)(Hollnagel,Paries,Woods,&Wreathall2013)(Linkov,Eisenberg,Bates,Chang,CoverYno,Allen,Flynn,Seager2013)

Social-technicalResilienceEnablingProcesses

ResilienceSocio-TechnicalProcesses

Outcomes

Sensing AnYcipaYng AdapYng Learning

(Thomas,2016)

Framework Yes,and…ConceptsIntroduc>on

13

Stressors/Shocks

Vulnerabilityfactors

ProtecYvefactors (+/-)

Ecological

Technical

Social SystemsofSystems

Outcomes

ResilienceSocio-TechnicalProcesses

AnYcipaYng AdapYngSensing Learning

ResilienceConceptualFramework

(Thomas,2016)

Context

Exogenous

Endogenous

Domains

Space

TimeMeaning

Dimensions

13Framework Yes,and…ConceptsIntroduc>on

BoundarycondiYons

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1.  Systems2.  ProtecYvefactors3.  Vulnerabilityfactors4.  Stressors,shocks5.  SAALprocesses6.  BoundarycondiYons7.  Dimensions8.  Domains9.  Context

9Parameters

FrameworkScorecard

Framework Yes,and…ConceptsIntroduc>on

15

Stressors/Shocks

Vulnerabilityfactors

ProtecYvefactors (+/-)

Outcomes

ResilienceSocio-TechnicalProcesses

AnYcipaYng AdapYngSensing Learning

Context

BoundarycondiYons

SocialSystems

TechnicalSystems

(Thomas,2016)

Power

Roads

Water

Space

TimeMeaning

Dimensions

Exogenous

Endogenous

Domains

InfrastructureResilienceConceptualFramework

15Framework Yes,and…ConceptsIntroduc>on

16

PVSO•  P=ProtecYvefactors•  V=Vulnerabilityfactors•  S=Stressors/Shocks•  O=Outcomes

Adapted:(Esbjörn-Hargens,Zimmerman,2009)

Integralmapofcoupledsocialandtechnicalsystems

PVSOPVSO

PVSO PVSO

Yes,and…ConceptsIntroduc>on Framework

DarnellEarley,FlintEMPhoto:ZackWiIman/AP

Photo:RyanGarzaDetroitFreePress

ResilienceSocio-TechnicalProcesses

AnYcipaYng AdapYngSensing Learning

Outcomes

Proposi>ons

Photo:FelixPharandDeschenes

Resilienttechnologyrequiresresilientpeople

Yes,and…Resilientpeoplerequireresilienttechnology

?

Resilience,SimulaYonforWater,Power&RoadwayNetworks,NSFGrantNo.1441352ThismaterialisbaseduponworksupportedbytheNa(onalScienceFounda(on(NSF)undergrantNo.1441352.Anyopinions,findings,conclusions,orrecommenda(onsexpressedinthismaterialarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsoftheNSF.

ThankYou

IntegralResilience.org

Thomas,JohnE.Co-authors:Eisenberg,DanielSeager,ThomasPh.D

Johnny.Thomas@asu.edu

20

References

•  Brand,F.,&Jax,K.(2007).FocusingtheMeaning(s)ofResilience:ResilienceasaDescripYveConceptandaBoundaryObject.EcologyandSociety,12(1).RetrievedfromhIp://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol12/iss1/art23/ES-2007-2029.pdf

•  Bronfenbrenner,U.(1979).Ecologyofhumandevelopment.Cambridge,MA:Harvard.•  Cook-Greuter,S.(1999).Postautonomousegodevelopment:Astudyofitsnatureandmeasurement(DoctoraldissertaYon).RetrievedfromProQuest

DissertaYonsandThesesdatabasehIp://search.proquest.com/docview/304503009?accounYd=8203•  Esbjörn-Hargens,S.(2010).AnOverviewofIntegralTheory.InIntegralTheoryinAc(on:Applied,Theore(cal,andConstruc(vePerspec(vesontheAQAL

Model(pp.33–61).StateUniversityofNewYorkPress.•  Esbjörn-Hargens,S.,Zimmerman,M.(2009).IntegralEcology,Uni(ngMul(plePerspec(vesontheNaturalWorld.IntegralBooks.•  Holling,C.,&Gunderson,L.(2002).Panarchy.IslandPress.•  Hollnagel,E.,Paries,J.,Woods,D.,&Wreathall,J.(2011).ResilienceEngineeringinPrac(ce:AGuidebook.Ashgate.•  Lerner,R.M.(2006).ResilienceasanaIributeofthedevelopmentalsystem:CommentsonthepapersofprofessorsMasten&Wachs.AnnalsoftheNew

YorkAcademyofSciences,1094,40–51.doi:10.1196/annals.1376.005•  Linkov,I.,Eisenberg,D.a.,Plourde,K.,Seager,T.P.,Allen,J.,&KoI,A.(2013).Resiliencemetricsforcybersystems.EnvironmentSystemsandDecisions,

33(4),471–476.doi:10.1007/s10669-013-9485-y•  Masten,A.(2001).Ordinarymagic:Resilienceprocessesindevelopment.AmericanPsychologist,56(3),227–238.doi:10.1037//0003-066X.56.3.227•  Masten,A.,&Obradovic,J.(2010).DisasterpreparaYonandrecovery:Lessonsfromresearchonresilienceinhumandevelopment.EcologyandSociety,

13(1).RetrievedfromhIp://ibcperu.org/doc/isis/8553.pdf•  Park,J.,Seager,T.P.,Rao,P.S.C.,ConverYno,M.,&Linkov,I.(2013).IntegraYngRiskandResilienceApproachestoCatastropheManagementin

EngineeringSystems.RiskAnalysis,33(3),356–67.doi:10.1111/j.1539-6924.2012.01885.x•  Smith,A.,&SYrling,A.(2008).Social-ecologicalresilienceandsocio-technicaltransiYons:criYcalissuesforsustainabilitygovernance.BrightonSTEPS

CentreWorkingPaper,8(8),1–25.RetrievedfromhIp://www.steps-centre.org/PDFs/STEPS•  Ungar,M.,Ghazinour,M.,&Richter,J.(2013).AnnualResearchReview:Whatisresiliencewithinthesocialecologyofhumandevelopment?Journalof

ChildPsychologyandPsychiatry,andAlliedDisciplines,54(4),348–66.doi:10.1111/jcpp.12025