Fundamental Concepts of International Politics

Spring 2013

Prof. H. Steven GreenToyo UniversityFaculty of Law

Lecture 11 / Class 13July 12th, 2013

Realism & Liberalism

SOME ADVICE

1. Listen to the lectures today and next week carefully. Concentrate.

2. Read the textbook.3. Review the lectures at Slideshare.com4. Study with your friends: Talk to each other

about the concepts we are studying.5. Get enough sleep!

Today’s Plan

1. Learn about different kinds of realism.2. Learn about different kinds of liberalism.3. Have fun! (Of course!!)

Our plan• Finish this semester by learning more about the

theories of IP.WE NEED TO UNDERSTAND THESE THEORIES

These are the of IP.• In the fall term, we will study World Wars One

and Two, the Cold War, the post-Cold War era and the international economy.

DO NOT FORGET THE THEORIES AND CONCEPTS!

As always….WORDS ARE IMPORTANTWords are our friends!

Why theories are important

1. Simplify reality• Theories give us a basic set of assumptions(思い込み ) to explain many complicated things.2. Systematize reality• Theories help us see patterns in events.

NOTE: A theory CANNOT explain EVERYTHING.

Theories are important

When you think about IP theory, ask yourself:• What does this theory NOT explain? • Does another theory explain it? • Which assumptions do YOU think are correct

(e.g. “people are motivated by power,” “people want to cooperate”)?

• Which theory fits your assumptions AND explains the most about events in IP?

Assumptions & Occam’s Razor

William of Occam (English, 1287-1347)

• Choose the explanation that has fewer assumptions and...• Explains more (“greater explanatory power”)• Can be falsified: We know how show it is wrong

Occam’s Razor

Law of parsimony (節約の法則 )• Good explanations “shave away” unnecessary

details.

Parsimony: To explaina lot with a little.

Theories, Paradigms, Nye’s Mistake (?)

• In Unit 1, Nye said realism, liberalism and constructivism are 3 theories of IP.

• In Unit 2, Nye says they are 3 paradigms of IP.

Why?

Because he is famous so his editor checks his spelling but not his logic…?

DON’T WORRY ABOUT IT.

REALISM & LIBERALISM

Realism & liberalism are “big tents”: Different theories of both but all are realism/liberalism

REALISM

All realists agree that:

1. IP is a system of Hobbesian anarchy.2. States are the most important actors in IP.3. All international politics is power politics.4. Power is zero-sum and relative. (If state X has more

power, all other states have less.)

Power politics = States will always and only do what is best for their own power and security.

REALISM

How peace is achieved:“Peace through superior firepower.”

Peace is the result of deterrence: Make sure the costs of attack are too high.

(Remember high-crisis stability?)

REALISM

All realists also agree that there is an unchanging logic to the international system.

“States have no permanent friends or permanent enemies, only permanent interests.”

Henry John Temple, Lord Palmerston, Great Britain(1784-1865)

SCHOOLS OF REALISM

OFFENSIVE• States always want more power.• Power is zero-sum and relative: If one state has more power

then others have less and the security dilemma is the result.

DEFENSIVE• States want ENOUGH power to feel safe (that other states

will not attack them.)• Power is zero-sum and relative but states can avoid war by

making themselves strong enough to deter attack.

A Realist Explanation for Why the International

System is Stable

Hegemonic Stability Theory 覇権安定論

A realist explanation for what holds the “threads” together.

Hegemonic Stability Theory

• A single powerful state (a hegemon) is necessary to create and maintain an international monetary and economic system.

• Time periods without a hegemon have a lot of conflict and uncoordinated economic nationalism

• Neither US nor UK coordinated the global economy in 1920s or 1930s• In the 1920s and 1930s, nations traded less, and imposed

tariffs and quotas and…• The result was total war from 1939-1945

Hegemonic Stability Theory

The hegemon creates the system for its benefit.

• But, other states tolerate or accept the system because the hegemon provides “public goods” ( 公共財 )

• So, states are better off accepting the system than challenging it.

• Countries like Iran, North Korea, Myanmar (Burma) and Venezuela reject the system so their economies do not develop

Hegemonic Stability Theory

• Side payments (hegemon gives subsidies, aid to smaller states) and public goods (economic and security) create incentive to cooperate (no motivation to challenge)• Costs of challenging hegemon are prohibitive* (no

opportunity of successful challenge)

*prohibitive costs 法外な価格

A SHORT HISTORY OF THE WORLD ACCORDING TO HST

22

Roman Empire• Common currency, common rules for trade.• Justice and order• Technology and infrastructure (roads, bridges, etc.)

MONGOLIAN EMPIRE & SILK ROAD TRADEMongolian Empire: 1206-1368

Largest land-based empire in history

• Encouraged trade along Silk Road from East Coast of China to Europe• Protected Silk Road, established regulations• Used merchants (商人 ) to help collect taxes• Empire included different races and religions: All had protection and rights of Mongolians

British Empire 1580-1945 (1997)

– The rise of the UK, Spain, France, and Holland due to more powerful military technology and better navigational technology and desire for wealth lead them to dominate the region and later colonize it.

– As rival empires they did not see the benefits in trading with each other

– They focused on trade within their empires– Great Britain was the most technologically advanced and

became the most powerful of the European empires.

Pax Briannica– High level of financial interconnectedness among the

European powers in the 19th century. • UK was the technological and financial leader due to industrial revolution

(and safety of geography)• Global dominance of its navy. • Total war with other empires is avoided (usually)

How does it end?• World War I• Causes in the 19th C.• We will study in the fall term.

“Black Hole” of 1919-1945

The Interwar period (1919-1939)

– All European powers weakened by WWI.– Idea of autarky ( 経済自立国家 ) becomes popular.– Beggar-thy-neighbor policies. 近隣窮乏化政策– Great Depression severely reduces what free trade existed.– The hegemon was too weak and exhausted to coordinate global trade rules and military cooperation

Pax Americana: 1945 - ?US constructs a new international economy after WWII

– US leaders believe domestic and international economic stability are necessary for peace and its own security

– Decides it must act to prevent economic chaos from returning– 1944: Leaders and experts from 44 countries (but NOT from Germany or

Japan) meet to create IMF, World Bank, WTO (called GATT) – US provided the most economic & political support for these– US markets open to most countries– US Navy becomes “police” of the seas

The Bretton Woods System

• UN, IMF, World Bank are all part of the Bretton Woods System– Creates high level of coordination between U.S., W. Europe, and

Japan– Manages the international economy to provide stability, gradual

openness……But not so much openness that domestic employment is

threatened!Makes political stability a higher priority than

economic efficiency

Logic of Bretton Woods System

• Security: Hegemon wants rules that benefit it first but also that others will accept: Trading is better than fighting.

SIDE PAYMENTS: US accepted trade terms that favor Europe and Japan because it wants them to grow strong in order to help contain the USSR

Exchange Rates: Set to the US dollar (which was set to gold)

German markBritish

poundFrench franc

U.S. dollar

Gold

Pegged at $35/oz.

Par Value

Par ValuePar

Value

IMF & Washington D.C.

REALISM

World War I, World War II, and the Cold War made realism very popular among scholars in the 20th Century.

• Wealthy, strong states went to war (WWI, WWII), despite the fact that they had been major trading partners and shared long histories. (King George V & Kaiser Wilhelm were cousins!)

• The two strongest states faced each other in a Cold War that looked similar to the tensions between Sparta & Athens

• The Bretton Woods System is a system of side-payments • Since 2001, realism is becoming popular again: Afghanistan

and Iraq Wars, fears of China’s rise, economic crisis

LIBERALISMAll liberals agree that:

1. IP is a system of anarchy but not Hobbesian: People are motivated not just by fear but also by a desire to live well.

Anarchy is a problem, but one that can be solved.

2. States are important, but not the only actors that matter:

There is an international society where states make agreements, etc.

This society includes international organizations (IOs) as well as other actors (NGOs, MNCs).

Different actors have different preferences (besides security).

LIBERALISMAll liberals agree that (continued):

3. Peace and cooperation among states can produce absolute gains for all. • If your state benefits from cooperating with

others, the gains of other states do not matter.

4. Security is not always (or even frequently) the most relevant issue.• For most types of international relationships force will

not be the most important issue.

LIBERALISM

Three main variants (types) according to NYE.

1. Economic- focuses on trade2. Social- focuses on transnational

contacts of people at all levels3. Political- a) institutions, b) democracy

LIBERALISM

Three main variants (types) according to our class and other IP scholars. (Nye’s terms in blue.)

1. Commercial (Economic)2. Institutional (one type of political)3. Regime (政権 ) type (another type of political)

DO NOT WORRY ABOUT WHAT NYE CALLS THE “SOCIAL” TYPE OF LIBERALISM

HOW LIBERALS EXPLAIN PEACE

Institutions, democracy and economic interdependence are all necessary TOGETHER to create peace.

Liberalism

1. Commercial Liberalism (Nye: Economic)

• Trade & business create common bonds across borders – Trade make international cooperation possible and desirable and

makes conflict too costly.

• Commercial Liberals rely on the logic of economic interdependence to create a common interest in cooperation– Trade creates economic security & mutual understanding

• For the past 20 years scholars have focused on the continued expansion and deepening of economic ties through the processes of globalization

Liberalism

2. Liberal Institutionalism (Neoliberalism) (Nye: One type of political)– International institutions reduce the effects of

anarchy and of the security dilemma.– Institutions provide information and lengthen the

shadow of the future: • They allow people to believe conflict is not necessary

and that not all problems between states are prisoner’s dilemmas.

Liberalism2. Liberal Institutionalism (Neoliberalism) continued:– In one sense, IOs are almost a substitute for an

international government because…– They create cooperation, which leads to…– International rules and customs.

Liberalism

Institutions “stabilize expectations” : They make the social fabric that prevents chaos in the

international system.Institutions provide:

1. A sense of continuity (継続感 )2. The opportunity for reciprocity (相互関係 )3. A flow of information (情報の流れ )4. Ways to resolve conflicts. (紛争を解消する )

LIBERALISM

Islands of peace(“pluralistic security communities”)

Places where international institutions and stable expectations have developed.

Stable expectations because war between states in these places is unimaginable: e.g. EU, North America

So: People in these areas expect to trade with each other AND to always solve problems peacefully.

Liberalism

3. Regime Type Liberalism (Nye: another type of political)•Type of government affects relationships with other states. (Remember Marxism and traditional (pre-1914) liberalism?)•Liberal states create a “zone of peace”: They do NOT fight each other but…•They sometimes fight non-democratic states. (Gulf War, 1990, Afghanistan and Iraq Wars, US/UK/EU help rebels (反逆者 ) in Libya, 2011)

Liberalism

Islands of peace•Geographical clusters (群れ )

Zone of peace•ALL democratic states (EU, Japan, Korea, New Zealand, India, Israel, etc.)

States in islands of peace are connected to each other, by borders (e.g. EU) but all democratic states

are part of the zone of peace.

WHAT REALISTS SAY ABOUT LIBERALISM

1. Institutions are created BY states so they usually reflect the interests of powerful states (e.g. UNSC) and small, non-democratic states can make them ineffective.

2. IOs are NOT useful in areas where states will now give up sovereignty (e.g., Cuba, North Korea, Syria, etc. reject human rights rules.)

3. Democratic states act like realists when they are dealing with non-democratic states.

4. States will participate in IOs and trade ONLY when they think it is in their interest: They will not risk losing power or security.

Liberalism

Liberalism became very popular in the 1960s and 1970s (ironically, during the Cold War) and especially in the 1990s.

• Rapid and deep increase in trade and governmental agreements between former enemies and all wealthy, democratic states.

• Creation of EU, NAFTA• Longest period of peace in Europe in history.• End of Cold War inspired many to think major war will

never happen again.

WHAT LIBERALS SAY ABOUT REALISTS

1. Realists over-emphasize anarchy and competition. They ignore the history of cooperation and expansion of democratic values worldwide.

2. Realists ignore regime type so they cannot explain the islands of peace or the zone of peace.

WHAT DO YOU THINK?

• What is your view of anarchy in the international system?

• Based on that view, which view do you think best explains how states act?

• Do you think the international system can become more democratic (i.e. will islands of peace increase?) Why?

• Do you think there will always be a certain amount of conflict in the system and that states that are friends now might become enemies at war in the future? Why?

NEXT WEEK

Have a nice week!