78 caffrey history of wg part 2
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The History of Wargaming
Matthew B. Caffrey Jr.AFRL Wargaming
Plans & Programs DirectorateAir Force Research Laboratory
17 November 2010
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World War II
Germany
Mannstein makes his case
Barbarossa - an accurate mistake
Victory at Normandy, twice
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World War II
Japan
The Total War Research Institute
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World War II
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World War II
Both attacks on Pearl Harbor
Japan
The Total War Research Institute
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World War II
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World War II
Both battles of Midway
Why did Japan keep on fighting
Japan
The Total War Research Institute
Both attacks on Pearl Harbor
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World War II
UK
Both extremes
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World War II
UK
Both extremes US
US Army Ground Forces - unknown
US Army Air Forces - sorely missedUSMC eerie success, then..
Navy success - but ...
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World War II
The war with Japan had been [enacted] in the game room
here by so many people in so many different ways thatnothing that happened during the war was a surprise,
absolutely nothing except the Kamikaze.
Fleet Admiral Chester Nimitz
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Eclipse
Decline in the
study of war
at the war colleges
Rise of
deterrence &
the efficient DoD
Korea seen as
an aberration
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The onset of the Cold War
Assumed credibility of computers
Prestige of Operations Research
Reaction against the management mindset
of Vietnam
Why was Wargaming Reborn?
The obsolescence of war had been greatly
exaggerated
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1950s Analysis models
USNaval - NEWS from the Naval War Col
USMC - Landing Force War Game series
Army - Aggressors, at least a start
Air Force - RAND & war gaming
International Soviet historical rigor
UK OR
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1960s Pentagon Games
US
Joint - Wargaming at the heartNaval - NWC goes to WARS
Army - making the case for Air Mobile
Air Force - looses Skybolt, gains PME WG
International - UK & Canadian OR
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Wargaming - The Vietnam War
US
Wargame predicted
stalemate -- NOT
continued to conflict resolution
Limited in theater use
Wargame predicted victory
North Vietnam
- Soviet method of wargaming
- Partial explanation of
lack of radio use,
style of
fighting
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US
Naval - Top Gun, to CRP, to Global
Army - Tech solution to a people problem?
Air Force - Red Flag!
1970s Education and Training
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US
Naval - The golden age of Global
Army - From III Corps to NTCAir Force - Air Force Wargaming Center
USMC The right wargame for each need
JointCENTCOM takes the lead
DARPAs modest innovation
1980s O-Plan Development
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Wargaming - The Gulf War
US
Iraqi
- Soviet method for ground forces
- a reason for the halt
- US software for air
forces - a reason
they did not
fight
Exercise in the Desert - Patriots accelerated
Internal Look 90 - a reason we moved so fast?
Wargamers at war - the road not taken
Wargames in the field
The US training edge
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Naval Global transformation event
Army Initiates Title 10 wargame
Air Force Initiates Title 10 wargame
USMC Starts then stops Title 10 WG
Joint
Service Wargames talk to each otherFewer, more Joint engines JSIMS,JWARS
1990s US - Jointness
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1990s Globally - Expanded Use
Congressional LiaisonProcurement DecisionsTactics DevelopmentForce TradeoffsGrowing use of virtual wargamingInternational Study US
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DoD Wargaming at a Crossroads
More money going to wargaming
Relativelyless
expensive
Noenviron-
mental
impact
Securefrom
overhead
observation
Exploitsmore
computing
power for
less money
Credibilitywith
Congress
Credibilitywith
Congress
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DoD Wargaming at a Crossroads
More money going to wargaming
More doubts than any time since the late 40s
- High Desert Storm Casualty Predictions
- RANDs Base of Sand Paper
- HQ USAF concerns- Irrelevance in armed conflict with Serbia
- Competition from commercial wargames
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DOD / CommercialWar Games 1950 - 1990
Analysis Training PME Prof Dev Recreation
[Bottom Up]
Operational
ResearchModels
History Based
Wargames
[Top Down]
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The Rise of Commercial Wargaming
More Accessible Wargames
- 1950s Charles Roberts- 1960s Eric Dott & Avalon Hill
- 1970s James Dunnigan & the S&T Staff +
- 1980s Chris Crawford & Gary Grigsby
- 1990s 25 Billion dollar global industry
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The Rise of Commercial Wargaming
More Citizens Playing Wargames
- 1950s Thousands- 1960s Tens of Thousands
- 1970s Hundreds of Thousands
- 1980s Millions
- 1990s Tens of Millions
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Commercial/DOD Integration
Analysis Training PME Prof Dev Recreation
[Bottom Up]Operational Reasearch Models
History Based Wargames[Top Down]
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2000+
Old bothersome problems become major needs
OEF to fast to wargame
OIF
This is not the enemy we wargamedagainst. Lt Gen Wallace, V Corps CC
How do you wargame Phase IV?
UNCLASSIFIED // FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
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CSAF, Gen Fogleman, 1995: We must put together our own Title 10 wargame to
highlight modern air and space power to the joint warfighting community
Showcase airpower; but conduct on a level playing field
Recruit from combatant commands must be truly purple
Initially two Title 10 Wargames conducted each year
Global Engagement (now Unified Engagement) set in mid term future
Air Force Futures Capabilities Game set in far term future
Until 2000 games conducted at Air University, Maxwell AFB
2000-2004 in Wash DC area; much inside beltway participation
After 2004, UE 04, CSAF, Gen Jumper directed Take the wargame to the
warfightergo to the Pacific first
FG 05 (and ever other year there after) held at Air University, Maxwell AFB
UE 06 held in PACAF in Nov 2006highly praised by Admiral Fallon, Gen Hesterand joint GO/FO participants
UE 08 held in USAFE in Nov 2008
UE 10 held in PACAF in Nov 2010
HAF Wargaming History
UNCLASSIFIED // FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
USAF AFMC AFRL
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USAF > AFMC > AFRL
Enhancing Accuracy of Wargames
2000 Technology Seminar Game 2000 held, develop/vet Blueconcepts for Futures Game
2004 Unified Engagement 04 better directed energy
2006 Red Tech Workshop (Discovery Game) initiated
2007 Futures Game returned to alternate forces
Blue Technology Workshop ( AFTEG) initiated
AFRL Wargame Course initiated
2008 AFRL Wargame initiated
2009 Futures Game initiates S&T Cell 2010 Unified Engagement 10
Start on improving ACS accuracy
Better cyber depiction
Some S&T Input
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History
The Art of Wargaming, Peter Perla, 1990
http//www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/cc/caffrey.html
News
http://www.msrr.dmso.mil/
http://afmsrr.afams.af.mil/
http://www-leav.army.mil/nsc/warsim/index.htm
To Learn More
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To Learn More
Go to: WWW.AU.MIL
Pull Down: Aerospace Power
Chronicles
Go to Fall 00 Issue
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