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DAISHIN CYBER INVESTMENT FORUM 포털 어닝모멘텀 대비 시점 [인터넷 포털· 게임 / 엔터 산업] 리서치센터 기업분석부 연구위원 강록희 (769-3097)

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  • DAISHIN CYBERINVESTMENT FORUM

    [ / ]

    (769-3097)

  • 1. : 2010 . Top Pick , NHN

    2. : . .

    3. : 1) , 1 M/S 2) GDP

    ,

  • /

  • 1. Valuation

    1) Matrix

    : 09 11 4 , 2010 EPS: Bloomberg, Thomson,

    : 1. 09~11 2 2. 2010 3. ,

    : Bloomberg, Thomson,

    AverageRakuten

    Yahoo J

    BaiduAmazon

    eBay

    Yahoo

    Google

    NHN

    0.05.0

    10.015.020.025.030.035.040.045.050.0

    0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0

    ROE(%)

    PER()

    Baidu

    Amazon

    eBayYahoo

    Google

    NHN

    Yahoo JRakuten

    Average

    0.05.0

    10.015.020.025.030.035.040.045.0

    0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0

    (%)

    (%)

  • 2. 2010

    1) 2010 19.3% 2 8,882. 23.7% 1 1,070

    2) 2010 ,

    : 5(NHN, , , , CJ) :

    27.5 68,820 28.0 8,721 28.6 11,689 23.7 11,070 19.3 28,882 2010F

    21.2 82,926 20.5 10,508 20.5 14,090 17.9 13,048 16.0 33,508 2011F

    -1.1 16,235 22.9 2,057 28.3 2,799 22.2 2,639 19.1 6,893 2Q10F16.9 16,422 36.3 2,081 38.4 2,823 28.4 2,652 16.7 6,896 1Q10F28.4 54,318 41.1 6,815 31.3 9,091 32.7 8,948 18.5 24,215 2009F-2.9 14,054 51.3 1,781 41.1 2,537 42.6 2,481 20.3 6,562 4Q09F

    7.6 14,472 75.6 1,833 52.9 2,331 44.3 2,242 19.6 5,958 3Q09F0.7 13,449 38.1 1,675 31.6 2,182 25.6 2,160 14.8 5,787 2Q09

    29.4 13,354 9.3 1,527 5.1 2,040 19.5 2,065 19.2 5,908 1Q0922.0 42,463 26.3 4,830 30.8 6,923 21.6 6,741 27.3 20,435 2008

    Q/Q(%)()Y/Y (%)()Y/Y (%)()Y/Y (%)()Y/Y (%)()EPS

    09 , 2010

  • 3. 2010

    1) 09 7.7%

    2) 2010 +11% 09 , 1~2

    : NHN EC : , ,

    NHN &

    53.624.229.49881,19645.43,92704

    53.026.326.773774945.92,70003

    38.220.617.640034444.41,85002

    89.117.471.72,3339,60811.013,40310F

    80.514.765.81,7767,9507.712,07509F

    82.817.265.62,0367,47510.011,21608

    76.617.958.71,9326,08730.910,20007

    67.818.349.51,5013,93737.47,79006

    60.520.639.91,2222,31844.45,66905

    NHNNHN

    (%) (%) () ()

  • 4.

    1) 1~2

    :

    :

    9 , 9 , 09 7% 9 Cost , , 9 1~2 (Operating Leverage)

    A B

    C D EA

    B

    C

    Market Pie Market Pie

  • 5.

    1) : , , 1 .

    2) : . 2

    :

    PPC, CPM

    09 : +7.7%10 : +11.0%

    NHN : 62.4% : 75.1%

  • 6.

    1) NHN 09 10 M/S 67.0% 1

    2) M/S 21.2% 1.0%P .

    :

    NHN

    :

    01020304050607080

    05.5 05.12 06.7 07.2 07.9 08.4 08.11 09.6

    Naver(%)

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    05.5 05.12 06.7 07.2 07.9 08.4 08.11 09.6

    Daum

    (%)

  • 7. Cycle

    1) Cycle ( ), ( ), ( , , , ) 3 .

    2) 09 2 , 2010 .

    :

    Cycle : 2010

    1

    2

    2000.2/4 2003.2/4 2004.4/4

    2004.4/4 2007.4/4 2009.2/4

    3 1 6 4 6

    3 ? ?

  • 8. Valuation

    1) Valuation

    : 09 11 4 : Bloomberg, Thomson I/B/E/S

    : 09~11 CAGR, 2010 : Bloomberg, Thomson I/B/E/S

    2010

    Average

    The9

    PerfectWDShanda

    NetE

    EA NeowizCJ Int e r ne t

    Nc Soft

    0.0

    5.0

    10.0

    15.0

    20.0

    25.0

    30.0

    0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

    PER()

    PBR()

    AverageThe9

    PerfectWD

    Shanda

    NetE

    EA

    Neowiz

    CJ Int e r ne tNc Soft

    0.05.0

    10.015.020.025.030.035.040.0

    0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0

    (%)

    (%)

  • 9. 2010

    1) 09 , 58% , 2010 15%

    2) 2010

    : , CJ, :

    2010 15%

    : 148 .: ,

    2010

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1,000

    1,200

    1,400

    06 07 08 09F 10F 11F0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    70 () (%)

    ()

    -100

    102030405060

    07 08 09F 10F 11F

    GDP (%)

  • 10. : Q , P

    1) Q: , 1,600

    2) P: ARPU

    :

    : ,

    1011121314151617181920

    05.10 06.7 07.4 08.1 08.10 09.7

    ()

    7.08.4

    11.013.8

    17.4

    22.2

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    05 06 07 08 09F 10F

    ()

  • 11. /

    1. 2. 3. () 4 , () 2010

    49,000 BUY

    1. Aion 09 2. Aion

    165,000 MARKETPERFORM

    1. Valuation

    1. : 2. : BOT , WOW 3. 2010 4. Valuation

    1. 2.

    1. 2. , 3. CPC 2010 30% 4. 2010

    81,000 BUY

    1. /

    1. 2010 : C9 250 , 2. :1) , 2) 1 ,

    3) M/S 3. 2Q09 ,

    230,000BUYNHN

    ()

  • 1.

    1) .

    2) , , .

    3) .

    : : ,

    :

    : , ,

    0102030405060708090

    100

    05.03 06.01 06.11 07.09 08.07 09.050.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.5

    ()

    () ()

    (: 0.94)

  • 2. 4

    1) 09 1 4

    2) 1,200 .

    : : , , FnGuide, DataGuide Pro

    09 4 , GDP AssumptionGDP

    4.0 1,127 12.6 2,959,321 4Q10F

    3.3 1,144 14.8 3,095,211 3Q10F

    3.2 1,178 18.0 2,599,922 2Q10F

    3.7 1,207 19.2 2,703,063 1Q10F

    3.1 1,212 13.9 2,628,623 4Q09F

    -2.1 1,278 -13.5 2,696,709 3Q09

    -2.2 1,398 -29.6 2,203,214 2Q09

    -4.3 1,369 -34.0 2,268,586 1Q09

    (yoy, %)(/)(yoy, %)()

    : GDP : FnGuide Consensus

    0200400600

    8001,0001,2001,400

    02.01 03.09 05.05 07.01 08.09 10.05-60-40-20020406080100

    ()() (%)

    SARS

  • 3. : , 1 M/S

    1) 06 07

    2) 1 CJ CGV .

    : ,

    :

    1

    020406080

    100120140160180200

    00 02 04 06 08 10F 12F-10-5051015202530354045

    YOY ()

    () (%)

    08 ~ 11 : 3.7%

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    60

    04 05 06 07 08 09F 10F 11F 12F

    CGV LotteMega Primus

    ()

    08 ~ 11CJ CGV : 7.4%

  • 4. /

    1. 2. 3 Issue

    1. 1 2. , 3. 2010 31,000 BUYCJ CGV

    1. 2. : ,

    1. , , GDP 1) , 4

    2. 2010 1) , 2) , 46,000BUY

    ()