6_gino van neer: opportunities for solar pv in indonesia case study – philippines

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Date

Opportunities for Solar PV in Indonesia Case Study – Philippines18th july, 2012

Belgium45.6%

Italy15.5%

France8.7%

Greece3.6%

UK3.2%

Americas18.9%

India4.4%

Belgium0.4%

France7.2%

Italy11.4%

Bulgaria2.3%

UK0.9%

Greece5.1%

USA6.5%

Canada8.6%

China32.9%

India6.8%

Thailand4.5%

Philippines6.8%

Malaysia6.8%

A truly international solar project developer

– realized 391 MWp of B2B & B2I and B2R projects in

11 countries to date

– presence in over 16 countries across Europe, North

America and Asia

– over > 200 employees globally

Realized 108MW in 2010 and 207 MWp in 2011

respectively, of which for 2011

– 25 MW in B2B

– 80 MW in B2I

– 44 MW B2R

– 59 MW Power business

2011 sales of €375m, up 70% from 2010

2

A sizeable independent solar developer…

Enfinity snapshot 2011 installed MW – B2B, B2I, B2R, Power

Largest independent PV developer with proven development track record

B2B & B2I 2012 Gross pipeline (MW)

Total MW: 207

Total MW: 222

…with a global presence and proven track record

3

Geographical diversification with early stage local presence is a core strength

Enfinity's track record (B2I & B2B)

Canada

USSpain

UK

France

Italy

Czech RepublicBelgium

Bulgaria

Greece

UAE

China South Korea

Philippines

Malaysia

Thailand

Vietnam

India Hong Kong

(a) As of 30 Dec 2011

(b) Excluding discontinued operations

Grid connected MW(a) 47

2012 pipeline MW, inc. under

construction(a) 33

2013 – 14 pipeline MW 149

No of employees 27

North America



construction(a) 61

2013 – 14 pipeline MW 771

No of employees 124

Europe



construction(a) 128

2013 – 14 pipeline MW 3,749

No of employees 56

Asia

Multiple channels into the end customers

4

Multiple sources of revenue and customers enhance competitiveness and reduce risk

B2IBusiness to Investors

B2I refers to the sale of solar projects to external financial investors

Development, financing, construction, operation and administration carried out by Enfinity

Historically has been the main driver of Enfinity’s sales

B2RBusiness to Retail

B2R refers to the sale of solar systems to residential clients via resellers

Enfinity is responsible for providing PV systems as well as training and marketing support to the resellers

In certain cases, Enfinity sells PV systems directly to the end-customer

B2BBusiness to Business

B2B refers to the sale of solar installations to corporate customers

Enfinity is responsible for project development, construction and O&M

The Company has substantial experience in the creation and development of B2B projects for a wide range of

business clients (multi-national clients)

Installations by system integrator/developer(MW DC – 2009 to 2014)

Source: PHOTON consulting, LLC. Note: All data are rought estimates. Estimates based on MW DC of completed construction/system installations,

not MW interconnected.

Dunhuang China – 10 MWp

PV market: GLOBAL

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69 GW installed globally, 85 TWh/year

29.7 GW was connected to grid in 2011(16.8 GW in 2010)

21.9 GW was connected in Europe (75% of global market)

Italy biggest market with 9.3 GW, followed by germany 7.5

GW

six markets with more than 1 GW; Italy, Germany, China,

US, Japan, France

Solar produces 4% of peak demand in Europe

In Germany solar produces 10% of peak demand

Opportunities for solar PV in ASIA - Indonesia

11

Fast growing demand for electricity production

majority of people have no access today

regular brown outs in some regions

No need for electricity infrastructure in the country

No need for fuel

cost

independency

Solar is fast to install

The cost of conventional electricity production is already

today more expensive than solar PV

Global Solar Electricity Potential

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☼ Solar energy in hours, received each day on an optimally tilted surface

☼ More than enough solar radiation available around the world to satisfy any demand for

solar power systems

☼ 4% of the world’s very dry desert areas used for PV installations, would meet the

whole world’s total primary energy demand

Considering the vast areas of unused space such as roofs, building and deserts,

the potential is almost inexhaustible

Solar Electricity Potential in Asia-Pacific

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• Very weak correlation between

the solar adoption and the

amount of sunlight in area.

• E.g. The southern part of China

has about 50% radiation MORE

than Germany – the largest

solar market.

• Average annual energy

received in Europe ~1000 kWh

per m²

• Compares with ~1850 kWh in

Bombay.

Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) by Technology

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

CCGT Coal Nuclear Wind- On Solar TF - '10

Total Electricity Cost Breakdown ($ / MWh)

Permanent Cost

Distribution & Transmission

Fuel Costs

CO₂ Costs

Fixed Cost

ROCE

Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) by Technology

Units CCGT Coal Nuclear Wind- On Solar TF - '10

Installed capacity MW 100 100 100 100 100

Construction cost $/ MW 1005 2700 5100 2400 3000

Plant life Yrs 40 40 60 20 25

Load factor % 40 70 85 30 35

Production GWh 350 613 745 263 307

Expected ROCE

Required return % 7 7 7 7 7

USD per MWh produced $/ MWh 20.1 30.8 47.9 63.9 68.5

Fixed Costs

Fixed O&M $/ MW 2.5 6.8 12.8 12.0 12.0


CO₂ Costs

Tot. Cost $ M 5.3 18.4 0.0


Fuel Costs

Fuel Price $/ MM BTU 3.5 3.8

Heat Rate BTU/ MWh 10,500 11,500


Total Generation Cost $/ MWh 79.0 115.0 69.1 109.6 107.6

Distribution & Transmission $/ MWh 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.5 0.0

Permanent Cost $/ MWh 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 0.0

Total Electricity Cost $/ MWh 119.5 155.5 109.6 150.1 107.6

Source: Barclays Capital Research

GRID Parity is around the corner

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Average insolation (Kw h/m^2day)

Avera

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eta

il pow

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price (

US

D/K

Wh)

China

Canada India

United States

South Korea

United Kingdom

Germany

IL

France

Czech Republic

Japan

NJ

NYItaly

CA

Spain

TX FL

AZ

Grid Parity

Australia

(KWh/m2/day)

2010E

2014E

Levelised

cost of

energy,

USD/kWh

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price (

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D/K

Wh)

China

Canada India

United States

South Korea

United Kingdom

Germany

IL

France

Czech Republic

Japan

NJ

NYItaly

CA

Spain

TX FL

AZ

Grid Parity

Australia

(KWh/m2/day)

2010E

2014E

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Avera

ge r

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il pow

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price (

US

D/K

Wh)

China

Canada India

United States

South Korea

United Kingdom

Germany

IL

France

Czech Republic

Japan

NJ

NYItaly

CA

Spain

TX FL

AZ

Grid Parity

Australia

(KWh/m2/day)

2010E

2014E

Levelised

cost of

energy,

USD/kWh

Opportunities for Solar PV in remote areas of ASIA –Case study Philippines

17

17.500 islands in Indonesia

majority are running on diesel generators

diesel generators are old and inefficient

many of islands have electricity for limited hours/day

frequent brown-outs

some areas very remote to bring fuelincreasing fuel

prices

Conclusion: to expensive

Opportunities for Solar PV in remote areas in ASIA –Case study Philippines

18

yearly, an increasing 162 mio$ losses by national power

company responsible for these areas

We are studying 9 islands in the case study

Findings

total generation 39 GWh/year

6 - 8 pesos/kWh paid by consumer

6 – 18 pesos/kWh paid by electrification fund

rest of cost is born by national utility responsible for off-grid islands

total cost/kWh is 0.33$ -1.41$/kWh in 2010

2011 - 30% increase in fuel cost

Cost 0.39$ - 1.49$/kWh


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Our solution for the case study of 9 islands

Replace 50% of diesel generators by solar parks:

50% of Energy/Daytime

Avoid buying more Generator sets

Savings on fuel cost year 1 : 4.4 million us$

assuming price increase of fuel of 5%/year (30% increase between 2010 – 2011)

Savings on fuel cost in year 25 : 14 million us$

Savings over period of 25 years : 211 million us$

We need to install 12 MWp of solar to cover 50% current consumption

Cost of 12 MWp = 36 million us$ + 9 million O&M = 56 million us$

SAVINGS of 150 mio us$


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There is more ...

Figures on 150 areas with 290 diesel generators

Savings on fuel cost year 1 : 53 mio us$

Assuming price increase of fuel of 5%/year

Savings on fuel cost in year 25 : 172 mio us$

Savings over period of 25 years : 2.5 bio us$

We need to install 168 MWp of solar to cover 50% of consumption or run

same gensets to increase daily coverage from 9-12 hours to 12-16 hours

Cost of 168 MWp = 504 mio us$ + 126 mio O&M = 630 mio us$

WE CAN SAVE 2 BIO us$

Or 1% of the GDP in philipinnes

Opportunities for solar PV in remote areas in ASIA –Case study Philippines

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Solution 1 – government raise money to invest

Solution 2 – IPP model

Sign bankable PPA with islands for 25 years

PPA is guaranteed by government

Collecting of money done by government institution

Equity and debt can be raised to cover the capex

operation by IPP

Solution 3 – Introduce a feed inn tariff for islands

Opportunities for solar PV in remote areas in ASIA –rest of Asia

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20.000 to 30.000 pacific islands

17508 islands in Indonesia

4200 islands in Korea

1200 islands in Maldives

how many remote areas in asia pacific ?

are we really going to use centralised electricity production and built

100 km of grid

Or is it time to install smart local grids with adapted electricity

production units

ITS TIME FOR SOLAR ENERGY

Thank You !Enfinity is a member of

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6_gino van neer: opportunities for solar pv in indonesia case study – philippines

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