ธุรกิจไทยจะก้าวไกลอย่างไรในยุค aec

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ประชาคมเศรษฐกิจอาเซียน (ASEAN Economic Community: AEC) จะทำาให้อาเซียนเป็นที่สนใจ มีบทบาทและอำานาจต่อรองมาก ขึ้นในเวทีเศรษฐกิจโลกแบบเดียวกับสหภาพยุโรป (EU) ด้วยตลาดที่มีขนาดประชากรกว่า 580 ล้านคน มากกว่าทั้งสหภาพยุโรป มีมูลค่า การค้า ระหว่างประเทศถึง 1.5 ล้านล้านดอลลาร์สหรัฐฯ และถึงแม้จะมีขนาดเศรษฐกิจรวมกันเท่ากับเพียงเกาหลีใต้ แต่เป็นแหล่งดึงดูดเงิน ลงทุนโดยตรงจากต่างประเทศและมีจำานวนนักท่องเที่ยวต่างชาติรวมกันคิดเป็นอันดับสองของโลก

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  • Insight

    Template Book InsightSize 21 cm. (W) x 29.5 cm. (H)

    () 9 10900 Email : [email protected]

    EIC | Economic Intelligence CenterMonthly/February 2011

    AEC

  • EIC Online : http://www.scbeic.comEconomic and business intelligence for eective decision making

  • (ASEAN Economic Community: AEC)

    (EU) 580

    1.5

    2015

    supra-national authority

    intergovernmental method

    AEC

    SMEs

    2 (1)

    (2)

    (core competency)

    AEC (non-

    tradables become tradables)

    (ASEAN expatriate class)

    (market trend)

    CLMV

    AEC (critical mass of consumer)

    ASEAN+3

    AEC

  • 4EIC Economic Intelligence Center

    AEC (Free Trade Area: FTA)

    AEC

    AEC

    AEC 10 AEC

    (ASEAN Community)

    (ASEAN Political-Security Community)

    (ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community)

    (European Community) (European Union)

    AEC

    AEC 1

    ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) 1

    *

    :SCBEICAssociationofSoutheastAsianNations(ASEAN);ChinaMinistryofCommerce;UnitedNationsConferenceonTradeandDevelopment(UNCTAD)InternationalMonetary Fund(IMF)

  • 5EIC Economic Intelligence Center

    AEC 100%

    100%

    4 AEC (1) (single market

    and production base) (2) (competitive economic region) (3)

    (equitable economic development) (4) (integration

    into global economy)

    100% AEC 2

    * 2008-2009: SCBEIC,

    73.6%*

    SMEs

    /

    82% 50% 100% 100%

  • 6

    EIC Economic Intelligence Center

    AEC 2015

    AEC 2015

    2015

    2010

    70% 2010

    AEC 2015

    70%

    AEC

    SMEs

    2015

    AEC

    AEC 2015

    2015 AEC

    BOX: 2015

  • 7

    EIC Economic Intelligence Center

    1.

    -

    - 0% - 0%

    - -

    - () - 100% - 70%

    - - -

    2. - -

    - - intergovernment method

    (European Central Bank: ECB)

    -

    (Supra-national authorities)

    (European Parliament)

    (European Court)

    (European Legal System)

    (European Competition Commission)

    supra-national authority

    intergovernmental method

    1

    1 , ...

  • 8EIC Economic Intelligence Center

    AEC

    AFTA

    common external tariff

    0%

    0%

    (harmonization of economic policies)

    2 David J. Dennis and Zainal Aznam Yusof (2003), Developing Indicators of ASEAN Integration A Preliminary Survey for a

    Roadmap, final report to REPSF Project 02/001

    AEC 3

    (free trade area)

    (common market)

    (economic union)

    (customs union)

    :SCBEICDavidJ.DennisandZainalAznamYusof(2003) 2

  • BOX:

    9

    EIC Economic Intelligence Center

    3

    AEC

    0% () 6

    0%

    2010 4 2015

    ( Outlook special issue: FTAs)

    ASEAN FTA 10

    6 3 ( ASEAN)

    6 53

    ASEAN

    FTA AFTA

    ASEAN 0%

    2012

    29% 2010 8% 2017

    35

    28.730

    25

    20

    15

    10

    5

    0

    2010

    2011

    2012

    2013

    2014

    2015

    2016

    2017

    2018

    2019

    2020

    2012 4

    / 2010-2020

    __ __ __ __ __ __ __ %

    : SCBEIC;,

    0.2 00

    2.8

    18.0

    21.8

    4.1

    8.4 7.7

  • 10

    EIC Economic Intelligence Center

    AEC

    (investment and labor mobility) Insight

    70%

    AEC 70%5

    : SCBEICASEAN

    (priority integration sectors)

    2006 2008 2010 2013 2015

    49% 51%

    49%

    70%

    51% 70%

    30% 49% 51% 70%

  • BOX: AEC

    11

    EIC Economic Intelligence Center

    AEC 2

    AEC

    ASEAN Framework Agreement on Service:

    AFAS (General Agreement

    on Trade in Services: GATS) GATS

    positive list

    negative list

    GATS-Plus

    GATS 4 (1)

    (cross-border supply) (2) (consumption abroad) (3)

    (commercial presence) (4) (temporary

    movement of natural persons) AFAS

    (package) package

    11 2015 8

    WTO

    (professional services)

    GATS

    7 12

    WTO

    WTO

    AEC

  • 12

    EIC Economic Intelligence Center

    2 (1)

    (2)

    GATS 4 ( BOX:

    AEC) 1-3

    39%

    70%

    4% 49%

    6

    * 5 ** BusinessOnlinePCL

    *: %

    :SCBEICSETSMART

    53

    4435

    30 30 28 26 2421 20 19

    16 16 15 15 14 14 1412 10 7 6

    1 0

    **

    *

    *

    **

    IT

    = 49%

  • 13

    EIC Economic Intelligence Center

    AEC

    100%

    3

    30% 35% 2025 2050 16%

  • 14

    EIC Economic Intelligence Center

    AEC

    (Mutual Recognition

    Agreement: MRA) 7

    4

    MRA

    7

    * 20012010

    : SCBEICWorldEconomicOutlook(WEO),IMF;Costofinvestinganddoingbusiness inASEAN(2001edition),ASEANPennWorldtables

    Purchasing Power Parity: PPP 2010*

    5,000

    4,000

    3,000

    2,000

    1,000

    0

    : (PPP)/

    4 MRA

  • 15

    EIC Economic Intelligence Center

    8

    :SCBEICWorldTradeOrganization(WTO)AsianDevelopmentBank(ADB)

    70% 2015

    100%

    100%

    100%

    49%

    49%

    40%

    30%

    AEC3

    30%, 40% 49%

    AEC 70%

    (joint venture)

    30%

  • 16

    EIC Economic Intelligence Center

    9

    AEC

    EBITDA margin

    :SCBEICBloomberg

    (EBITDA margin)

    21

    7 5 5

    AEC

    5 Bloomberg

    Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Standard & Poors (S&P)

  • 17

    EIC Economic Intelligence Center

    EBITDA margin 10

    :SCBEICBloomberg

    40%

    /

    39% 19% 9% 7% 7%11% 5%

    9% 8% n/a n/a

    19% n/a n/a n/a n/a

    15% 8% 21% 21%

    21%

    7%

    7%

    2% 4% 5%

    4%

    7% 17% 25% n/a

    17% 17%

    16% 15%19%

    10% 12% 0%5%

    21% 10% 26% 25% 22%9% 8%n/a

  • 18

    EIC Economic Intelligence Center

    AEC 11

    :SCBEICJutamasandFink(2007)6

    6 Jutamas Arunanondchai and Fink, Carsten (2007), Trade in Health Services in the ASEAN Region, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4147,

    March 2007

    1 4 (priority

    integration sectors)

    AEC

    AEC

    AEC

    4

    100%

    100%

    100%

    67%

    AEC = 70%

    49%

    40%

    30%

  • 19

    EIC Economic Intelligence Center

    :SCBEICWorldHealthStatistics2010,WorldHealthOrganization(WHO)

    12

    15%

    40%

    : 10,000

    15 44 312 61 611 61 1

    18 1

    6 8 34

  • 20

    EIC Economic Intelligence Center

    13

    :SCBEICUnitedNations(UN)

    (aging population)

    60 15% 2025 22% 2050

    11% ( 2010) 30% 35% 2025

    2050 16% 27% 2050 12%

    ( 60 )

    : %

  • 21

    EIC Economic Intelligence Center

    14

    200

    10%

    (third-class services)

    -

    1993-1999 the National Investment Coordinating

    Board 12 234

    25%

    83% 5,760

    175

    2000-2009 2007

    :SCBEICWorldHealthStatistics2010,WHO

    : 10,000 : ( )

    32 1,148

    28 58

    26 753

    22 136

    18 307

    6 42n/a

    6 75 63

    27

    36

    12 = 18

    = 80

  • 22

    EIC Economic Intelligence Center

    15% 40%

    15

    :SCBEICWorldHealthStatistics2010,WHO

    5

  • 23

    EIC Economic Intelligence Center

    16

    (core competency)

    AEC

    ASEAN+3

    (core competency)

    AEC

    5

    3 AEC

    +4

    (non-tradables to tradables)

    (ASEAN expatriate class)

    + =

    + =

    + =

    Leverage core competency

    :SCBEIC

  • 24

    EIC Economic Intelligence Center

    BOX:

    AEC

    18,000

    20%

    the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) 10

    27% 20%

    46% 52%

    :

    77% 61%

    34,000

  • 25

    EIC Economic Intelligence Center

    7 70%

    80%

    AEC

    3 (1)

    (2) (non-tradables become tradables)

    (3)

    (ASEAN expatriate class)

    7

    (Malaysia My Second Home Program: MM2H)

  • 26

    EIC Economic Intelligence Center

    AEC

    3

    1.

    7% 8 5%

    2.

    3. 3

    3 (1) () (2) (3) 4%, 23%

    7%

    (Halal) 3

    (core competency)

    AEC (critical mass of consumer)

    12% 10 9%

    30

    Red Bull

    100 8

    8% 20

    6%

    8 BrandZ Top 100 Most Valuable Global Brands 2010 Millward Brown Optimor

  • 27

    EIC Economic Intelligence Center

    9

    270

    2005 2009

    18.2

    10.4 9

    5 1

    AEC

    (critical mass of consumer)

    AEC

  • 28

    EIC Economic Intelligence Center

    ()

    7

    ()

    International Economics and Finance ()

    [email protected](662) 544-2478

    [email protected](662) 544-3085

    () ()

    Fulbright MBA

    Kellogg School of Management Northwestern University

    8 McKinsey &

    Company PricewaterhouseCoopers

    Head of [email protected](662) 544-3259

  • 30

    EIC Economic Intelligence Center

    Chief [email protected](662)544-4996

    [email protected](662)544-3259

    [email protected](662)544-3066

    [email protected](662)544-6760

    [email protected](662)544-2705

    [email protected](662)544-2475

    [email protected](662)544-2478

    [email protected](662)544-1644

    [email protected](662)544-1463

    [email protected](662)544-5644

    [email protected](662)544-5602

    [email protected](662)544-6103

    [email protected](662)544-3085

    [email protected](662)544-4006

    [email protected](662)544-2953

    [email protected](662)544-6566

    [email protected](662)544-6759

    Disclaimer : The information contained in this report has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. However, neither we nor any of our respective affiliates, employees or representatives makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information contained in this report, and we and each of such persons expressly disclaims any and all liability relating to or resulting from the use of this report or such information by the receipt and persons in whatever manner.

    Any opinions presented herein represent the subjective views of ours and our current estimated and judgments which are based on various assumptions that may be subject to change without notice, and may not prove to be correct.

    This report is for the recipients information only. It does not represent or constitutes an advice, offer, recommendation, or solicitation by us and should not be relied as such. We or any of our associates may also have an interest in the companies mentioned herein.

    SCB Economic Intelligence Center ()

  • Insight

    Template Book InsightSize 21 cm. (W) x 29.5 cm. (H)

    () 9 10900 Email : [email protected]

    EIC | Economic Intelligence CenterMonthly/February 2011