50 years of change and a model for the future

Cathy Parker and Simon Quin @placemanagement #HSUK2020

Good morning and welcome

Welcome particularly to representatives of our partner towns:

• Alsager, Altrincham, Ballymena, Barnsley, Bristol (St George), Congleton, Holmfirth, Market Rasen, Morley and Wrexham

Welcome also to our international webinar participants• Australia • Canada• Cyprus• Germany • Greece • Italy• Malaysia

• Netherlands• Portugal• Poland• Sweden• United Kingdom • …and Isle of Man

https://mmu.adobeconnect.com/uk2020mmu/

Agenda

09.30 – 10.30

10.30 – 11.00

11.00 – 13.00

50 years of high street change & a model for the futureBreak

Repositioning, reinventing, rebranding & restructuring your high street

@placemanagement #HSUK2020

Parliament June 2014

The challenge….and some background

@placemanagement #HSUK2020

Change in retailer location 2000-11

Out of town up 50 million square feet

Town centre down 46 million square feet

100,000 !

Loss won’t be uniform

Centre for Retail Research 2013

London

South East East

South W

est

Scotla

nd

West Midlan

ds

North East

Yorks

East M

idlands

North W

estWale

s0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Department for Transport 2011

Department for Transport 2011

Change in Tesco store format

10

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1972 1995

66% of stores under 5000 sq ft

47% of stores over 25,000 sq ft

Dawson J 2004

Generating 70% of retail sales

29000 retailers

100 retailers

1971 2004

Food

Bulky goods

Durable goods

Planning Statistical Release 4, DCLG, 2009

Percentage of newly built retail space in

town centres:1971-2008

Actual Town Centre Town Centre plus 300 metres

Online retailing

Online share of home retailing 2014

UK

US

Germany

Sweden

Europe av

Netherlands

France

Spain

Poland

Italy

0.00% 2.00% 4.00% 6.00% 8.00% 10.00% 12.00% 14.00% 16.00%

Centre for Retail Research 2013

Growth ForecastsOnline retailing

16% pa£52 bn in 2015

M-retailing

62% this year£7.92 bn

Centre for Retail Research 2013

Town centre share of retail spend

200049.4%

201142.2%

201439.8

%

Parliament 2014

The response

@placemanagement #HSUK2020

• Vital & Viable Town Centres• Planning Policy Guidance/Statements• Business Improvement Districts• High Street Britain 2015• The Portas Review• Understanding High Street Performance• Future High Streets Forum

Nature of TCM schemes

IPM 2009

Influencing strategy

Service delivery

Formingstrategy

PWC 2008

Focus of TCM schemes

Action

Attractions

Amenity

Accessibility

The 4 As

Making things

happen

What the centre has to

offer

Experience within centre

Getting into, out of, and

around centre

The 4 As

SpatialMacroMeso factors

The research

@placemanagement #HSUK2020

10000 studies found

2345 after clean up

923 ‘retail’ highlighted

253 town centre/high st

173 studies reviewed

@placemanagement #HSUK2020

Review parameters1. Type of study (empirical, exploratory, conceptual)2. Methodological evidence3. Data source (primary, secondary, tertiary)4. Dependent variable (retail area performance measure)5. Independent variables (factor affecting performance)6. Significance (major findings and statistical significance if available) 7. Limitations (flaws, weaknesses etc.)8. Author, date, publisher9. Geographical location (UK, US, Europe, e.g.)10.Size of retail/shopping centre (Different geographical scales of place, e.g.

city centre, town centre, high street, neighbourhood centre, district centre, suburban centre)

Time in minutes per review

Retail Restructuring and Consumer Choice 1: Long-term local changes in consumer behaviour: Portsmouth, 1980-2002 38

minsUS nationwide trends in metropolitan retail trade: A perspective of the mid 1980s

Most of the studies were empirical

Empirical

Conceptual

ExplanatoryHistorical

Other

Most published in the last 10 years

Mostly from UK and Europe

City CentreTown CentreHigh StreetNeighbourhood CentreDistrict CentreSuburban CentreOut of town Centre

Focus of data

166 factors influence performance

And if 166 factors were not enough…..

• Partner towns identified 50 additional factors that influence the High Street

• 33 additional studies reviewed• 201 factors finally identified, but:

–how much influence does each one have?

–what should towns be focussing on?

The Delphi Technique

The Delphi method is unique in its method of eliciting and refining group judgement as it is based on the notion that a group of experts is better than one expert when exact knowledge is not available.

(Paliwoda, 1983).

22 Experts participated Practitioner Academic

Major retailer Manchester Metropolitan University

Shopping centres owner University of Leicester

Urban consultant University of Dundee

Retail letting agency University of Ulster

Urban policy group Oxford University

Trade association University of Manchester

Professional body University of Liverpool

University of Portsmouth

University of Loughborough

Consensus reached on

1. How much influence each factor has on the vitality and viability of the High Street

2. How much control a location has over the factor

Spatial

Macro

Meso

Micro

You can’t control everything

The model

@placemanagement #HSUK2020

Influence relationships

• Weak inverse relationship between influence town has over factor and influence factor has over vitality and viability

• As a rule of thumb the more a factor influences vitality and viability, the less you can do about it

• Towns need to focus on factors they can influence, and where that influence will impact on vitality and viability

Not worth it! Get on with it!

Forget it! Live with it!

3.300 3.500 3.700 3.900 4.100 4.300 4.500 4.7002.700

2.900

3.100

3.300

3.500

3.700

3.900

ACTIVITY HOURS

APPEARANCE

RETAILERSVISION&STRATEGY

EXPERIENCE

MANAGEMENTMERCHANDISE

NECESSITIES

Anchor stores

NETWORKS & PARTNERSHIPS WITH COUNCIL

DIVERSITYWALKING

ENTERTAINMENT AND LEISURE

PLACE ASSURANCE

ATTRACTIVENESS

ACCESSIBLE

PLACE MARKETING

Comparison/convenience

RECREATIONAL SPACE

Barriers to Entry

Chain vs independent

Safety/crime

LIVEABLE

ADAPTABILITY

How much factor influences vitality and viability

How

muc

h to

wn

can

influ

ence

fact

or

Top 25 priorities

Forecasting the future of your high street

@placemanagement #HSUK2020

Spatial factors

Location Distance to centre Size/Type of townSpatial structure

Towns can’t do anything about these factors!

High Street UK 2020

Macro factorsEconomy

Consumer trends Business rates

Ageing populationTechnology

Retail planning policy

Towns can’t change these on their own

High Street UK 2020

Meso factorsBarriers to entry

Competition (other towns)Comparison/Convenience

Out of town shoppingTenant variety Vacancy rates

Towns interact with these/have some

Influence

High Street UK 2020

Micro factorsCleanliness

Visual appearanceNetworking

Opening HoursAttractions

Centre MarketingAmenities

Car-parkingEntertainment

Leadership

High Street UK 2020

Macro

Meso

Micro

Partnerships have 63.89 % of potential influence

Spatial

RESULTS from #HSUK2020 towns

Cleanlin

ess

Visual

appea

rance

Networki

ng

Opening h

ours

Attractions

Centre

mark

eting

Amenities

Car-park

ing

Enter

tainmen

t

Leaders

hip

Averag

e0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

DelphiAverage

How much control do our HSUK2020 towns have?

“..lively, diverse, intense cities contain the seeds of their own regeneration…”

How do you manage change?

RepositioningDr Steve Millington

ReinventingJohn Pal

RebrandingDr Mihalis Kavaratzis

RestructuringProfessor Deborah

Peel