4th COPS Workshop, Hohenheim, 25 – 26 September 2006

Modeling and assimilation efforts at IPM in preparation of COPS

Hans-Stefan Bauer, Matthias Grzeschik, Florian Zus, Volker Wulfmeyer, Andreas Behrendt and Thomas Schwitalla

Institute of Physics and Meteorology (IPM)

University of Hohenheim, Stuttgart, Germany

• Model statistics in the COPS region

• Assimilation of Raman Lidar data

• Development of a GPS operator

• Real-time assimilation efforts for COPS

4th COPS Workshop, Hohenheim, 25 – 26 September 2006

Model statistics in the COPS region• 13 different precipitation cases categorized into strongly-forced (4), weakly-forced (5), and non-forced (4) cases

• Creation of an average daily cycle from grid boxes containing observations

• Model configurations: 2-way nested 3, 1 km resolution, 36 level, sophisticated physics, 30 h forecasts initialized with ECMWF analysis, no data assimilation, 7 km directly initialized with ECMWF, param. conv.

4th COPS Workshop, Hohenheim, 25 – 26 September 2006

Observation Locations

DWD SYNOP stationsHVZ + Meteo France hourly precipitation

4th COPS Workshop, Hohenheim, 25 – 26 September 2006

13-case average values as compared to observations

Observations

MM5 7 km

LM 7 km

MM5 1 km

4th COPS Workshop, Hohenheim, 25 – 26 September 2006

Averaged 24h precipitation sum

Noobservations

Example:First 4DVAR using Raman lidar data (Grzeschik et al. 3.11-P) during LAUNCH 2005 IOP7, Oct 26/27 (see Engelbart et al. 9.5-I)

Additional observations:- 4 water vapor Raman lidars

- 1 temperature Raman lidar

(see Di Girolamo et al. 2.2-I, Klein et al. 8.2-O)

MM5 set up:- 27 km horizontal resolution- 36 vertical layers- 3-h assimilation window from 23-02 UTC

Assimilation of Raman lidar data

4th COPS Workshop, Hohenheim, 25 – 26 September 2006

Comparison of RAMSES and model profiles

RAMSES observation

MM5, 1 km, no assimilation

MM5, 1 km, with assimilation

4th COPS Workshop, Hohenheim, 25 – 26 September 2006

Impact on water vapor field still visible 6 hours after the assimilation window.

Future evaluations of impact required and ongoing.

4th COPS Workshop, Hohenheim, 25 – 26 September 2006

Assimilation of GPS integrated water vapor

• GPS provides data with a large spatial coverage and high temporal resolution under all-weather conditions.

• During GOP/COPS it is planned to densify the existing GPS network.

• Technical development of the forward operator is finished. Validation is possible.

• Implementation and testing ongoing.

4th COPS Workshop, Hohenheim, 25 – 26 September 2006

Operational Setup of the Real-Time System

4th COPS Workshop, Hohenheim, 25 – 26 September 2006

Operational Setup - Overview

Blue arrows: Data transportRed: Computing (data processing, assimilation, forecast, …) Green: Idle time (time window for data retrieval)Blue: Observation IntervalBlack: Technical Problems

4th COPS Workshop, Hohenheim, 25 – 26 September 2006

Data flow during COPS

COPS/GOP/D-PHASE Data Implementation WS, 26./27.4.2006

COPS Operations Center (OC)

Operate webbased data management system as fast and user-fiendly interface to

• Visualize and discuss all forecasts and operational data available

• Select missions of the day• Guide operations of the instruments• Visualize and discuss COPS measurement data

NinJo

Fast and user-friendly interface forvisualizing

• DWD forecasts (and others)• operational measurements

COPS Instruments

Guidance

MAP-FDP/D-PHASE

DWD

ETReC07

...

Real-time Quicklooks

EUMETSAT

GTS/AFDAssimilation

COPS Real time

Quick-looks

UHOH

NetCDF

BUFR

Fall back:Use disk volume of Data Archive

4th COPS Workshop, Hohenheim, 25 – 26 September 2006

Assimilation of Standard Observations

4th COPS Workshop, Hohenheim, 25 – 26 September 2006

Conclusions• First results from model statistics were presented.

• At 7 km with parameterized convection both models show the well-known luv/lee effect. In the 1-km MM5 simulation this error is no longer present.

• However, things not always improve with just increasing the horizontal resolution.

• What is the best way to go? Increasing the resolution, improving the used parameterization schemes, or a combination of both ?

• Interestingly, even the small set of 13 cases from one summer season used here shows the main features and errors found in longer climatologies.

• The assimilation of data from only a few Raman lidar stations show an impact hours after the end of the assimilation window. Even better results can be expect when data from several sources are assimilated at the same time.

• During the preparation of our real-time assimilation efforts important questions evolve …

4th COPS Workshop, Hohenheim, 25 – 26 September 2006

Expectations from the Workshop

• Decisions about data handling and organization of data flow.

• Which kind of data will be available for the assimilation? What is the estimated time of arrival of the data after the end of the mission?

• Daily schedule for operational instruments as well as IOP missions? We need this information to set-up our operational cycle.

• How will the visualization of the model output of COPS/MAP D-PHASE be organized so that an easy comparison of the different models is guaranteed?

More questions are expected to come up during the workshop