4 signs of the shift toward financial conservatism
TRANSCRIPT
of the Signs 4
Global Shift Toward Financial Conservatism From The State of the Global Markets Report—2016 Edition: "The End of the Mania Era, a Global Snapshot"
The IPO Party
Cycle is Over
The Elliott Wave Financial
Forecast identified the IPO
market as ripe for reversal in
the fall of 2014. Citing a
“euphoria” surrounding
Alibaba, which remains the
largest IPO ever, EWFF noted
a similarity to the record-
setting deals that hit the
market in November 1999
and March 2008. After each
ebullient period, the overall
market fell sharply.
u
v Investors are
Turning Away
from Risk
The relationship between the
MSCI Emerging Markets
Index and the MSCI World
Index shows a trend away
from risk that will gradually
widen into a trend out of all
equities.
v
Waning
Enthusiasm
for Share
Buybacks
For companies issuing
buyback announcements
“cheers invariably turn to
jeers” as the stock market
reverses from up to down. In
the first three quarters of
2015, buybacks were the
strongest since the record
year 2007, when stocks made
a major top.
w
M&A Activity Hits Record Levels
Corporate mergers are another peak-market metric that generally
moves to record levels as stocks complete major bull markets.
According to Dealogic, the current record total marks a 38% increase
over the same
period in 2014.
The prior record
of $3.9 trillion
came as stocks
topped in 2007.
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Bear markets move fast and are
intensely emotional; investors
and traders who are prepared
have greater opportunities on the
downside than on the upside.”
Robert Prechter President, Elliott Wave International
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The State of the Global Markets
Report—2016 Edition