4 charts on the economy july slideshare version
TRANSCRIPT
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Employment growth steady, but weak
Source: BLS, SVB Asset Management
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
Th
ou
san
ds
Nonfarm Payroll Growth
2 million fewer jobs today than pre-crisis
8 million jobs lost
6 million jobs recovered
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
5-Year TIP Inflation (Market Estimate)
3
Inflation well under control
Source: Bloomberg, SVB Asset Management
Fed targeting 2 percent, but happy if less than 2.5 percent.
Zero rates, QE
initiated to ward
off deflation
Mission
accomplished, but
expectations remain
volatile
-25.0%
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
Case Shiller YOY Home Price Change
4
Housing bubbling again?
Source: Bloomberg, SVB Asset Management
Government interference today much larger than prior to crisis
5 ½ years of
home price
declines
If you fit government
parameters, you can
get a loan
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
YOY Personal Consumption Change
5
Going forward, it’s all about the consumer
Source: Bloomberg, SVB Asset Management
Consumption remains 70% of the US economy
Consumers
respond to
wealth and
employment
challenges
Downward consumer
momentum driving
overall activity
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SVB Asset Management
Joe Morgan, CFA
Chief Investment Officer, SVB Asset Management
@SVBJoeMorgan
Weekly news summary and commentary: www.svb.com/ciovantage
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