3d holography: when might it become economically feasible?

28
HOLOGRAPHY Chew Guang Wei HT093271W Ho Seow Yan HT093116E Lim Su Ru HT093278B Ong Lip Sin HT093131U Wee Chong Liang Justin HT093290B MT5009

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Master's students use concepts from my (Jeff Funk) forthcoming book (Origins of New Industries) to analyze the technical and economic feasibility of 3D Holography. Improvements in lasers and holographic media are gradually making this more feasible. See my other slides for details on concepts, methodology, and other new industries..

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Page 1: 3D Holography: When Might it become Economically Feasible?

HOLOGRAPHY

Chew Guang Wei HT093271W

Ho Seow Yan HT093116E

Lim Su Ru HT093278B

Ong Lip Sin HT093131U

Wee Chong Liang Justin HT093290B

MT5009

Page 2: 3D Holography: When Might it become Economically Feasible?

Content2

• Introduction• Evolution of Displays• Value Proposition

• Holographic System SetupHolographic System Setup• Technology & Cost of Holographic System• Limitations of Holographic System

• Components of Holographic SystemF t O t iti• Future Opportunities

• Entrepreneurial Opportunities

Page 3: 3D Holography: When Might it become Economically Feasible?

Holographyg p y3

Page 4: 3D Holography: When Might it become Economically Feasible?

Timeline of Holographyg p y

1960:Pulsed ruby laser

4

ywas developed

1962:White light reflection hologram

2010: Development of 2010: Development of moving 3D holograms

2009: Interactive holographic

1983:Mastercard first credit card to use holograms

g pdisplays developed

1947: Dennis Gabor developed the theory of holography

g

Page 5: 3D Holography: When Might it become Economically Feasible?

Evolution of Displays5

p y

1940 1964 1972 1997 2004 201019801940 1964

Plasma Display invented

1972 1997 2004

LCD enters market

20101980

3D movies enter market Next generation: 3D

Holographic Display

Type Advantages Disadvantages

Cathode Ray Tube (CRT)

enters market

Liquid Crystal Display (LCD)

invented

Plasma enters market

3D TV enters market

Type Advantages DisadvantagesHigh Definition High resolution 2D images

3D Display High resolution Narrow viewing anglescom

/

3D Display High resolutionStereoscopic

Narrow viewing anglesRequire viewing glasses

Not true 3D imagery3D Holographic “Life-like” images Require large amount ofdm

arke

ttren

ds.c

3D Holographic Display

Life like imagesVolumetric 3D display

Interactivity

Require large amount of processing

Constraint by size of holographic materialht

tp://

ww

w.3d

Page 6: 3D Holography: When Might it become Economically Feasible?

Value Propositionp6

1. High Definition: . g e o : Images projected are full coloured, high resolution and life-like

E f t i ti 2. Ease of customization: Ability to project hologram anywhere

3 Ease of delivery and transmission: 3. Ease of delivery and transmission: Real time transmission to multiple locations

4 Volumetric View: 4. Volumetric View: 360 degree view with different perspectives

5. Interactivity: 5. Interactivity: Ability to interact directly with image

Page 7: 3D Holography: When Might it become Economically Feasible?

Holographic System Setupg p y p7

Satellite

Object 3D Hologram

Light SourceTransmission

Medium

CameraHolographic

MediaCamera System

Computer SystemComputer System

Media

Page 8: 3D Holography: When Might it become Economically Feasible?

Technology for Holographic System8

gy g p y

Key Prototype Technology expected by ySub-System

yp gy p y2016

Light Source 200mWDiode Pumped Solid

500mW Diode Pumped Solid Diode-Pumped Solid

State (DPSS) Pulsed LaserDiode-Pumped Solid

State (DPSS) Pulsed Laser

Holographic 17” At least 42” Holographic Media

17” Photorefractive Polymer2-second refresh rate

At least 42” Advanced Photorefractive Polymer

6 to 24 fps refresh rate

Transmission Media

100Mbps Up to 40GbpsFiber Optics

Computer System 4-core 16-core and beyond

Page 9: 3D Holography: When Might it become Economically Feasible?

Projected Cost of Holographic System9

j g p y

42" Holographic S stem200,000

42" Holographic SystemEstimated Cost Breakdown

Computer 

150,000

$)

SystemHolographic MediaLight Source

100,000

Cos

t ($ Light Source

Transmission

0

50,000

02011 2016 2021 2030

Year

Page 10: 3D Holography: When Might it become Economically Feasible?

Limitations of Holographic Systemg p y10

Laser System Laser System Performance trade off with cost and safety

Microprocessor Large amount of processing required g p g q Multiple complex algorithms and calculations

Photorefractive Polymer Size of hologram dependent on size of material Refresh rate

Page 11: 3D Holography: When Might it become Economically Feasible?

Photorefractive Polymer

11

Polymer

Fiber Optics

Page 12: 3D Holography: When Might it become Economically Feasible?

Light Source: Evolutiong12

Mercury arc lamp

Semiconductor l di d

Solid-state larc lamp

(1948)laser diodes

(1980s) laser

(1960s)

Dr. Theodore Maimanstudies a ruby crystal in the shape of a

[1]

cube in a laser.

[1] http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/269607/holography/92904/Pulsed-laser-holography

Page 13: 3D Holography: When Might it become Economically Feasible?

Laser System: Performancey

1) The lower the laser power the longer the exposure time

13

1) The lower the laser power, the longer the exposure time A second to few minutes for CW lasers vs. “nanoseconds” for Pulsed lasers

2) Laser power requirementi) Increases with Size of holograms

T i l l l H N l 1 20 W Di d l 5 50 W Typical power levels: HeNe lasers: 1-20mW, Diode lasers: 5-50mW, DPSS lasers: 20-200mW, Ar lasers with etalon: 100-500mW

For large holograms, on the order of 10-sq m, laser powers on the order f 1 W i f d if t i t i [1] lid t t A i of 1-W is preferred if cost is not an issue [1] solid-state or Ar ion gas

lasers as candidates

ii) Increases with Distance of hologram set-up Min. power output for laser light shows: ~400mW

[1] http://www.loreti.it/chaptersPDF/Ch11_Non-Laser_Illum.pdf[3] h // i ll i /P d /D /CVIMG H l h Whi df

Page 14: 3D Holography: When Might it become Economically Feasible?

Laser System: Performance vs. Costy

3) Higher laser power systems translate to higher costs

14

3) Higher laser power systems translate to higher costs (several thousand to tens of thousand dollars) [1]

Laser System Costing

25000

30000

35000 CW Pulsed

15000

20000

25000

Cos

t ($)

0

5000

10000

[1] Diode pumped SSL Costs: http://www.amazing1.com, 2011

* Modulator & optic system costs not included [1]

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 14000

Power (mW)

Page 15: 3D Holography: When Might it become Economically Feasible?

Laser System: Cost Projectiony j15

Projected Laser Cost Trend

70,000.00

80,000.00

j

200 mW

500 mW

1000 W

Generally decreasing trend for the past five

50,000.00

60,000.00($

)

1000 mW

1500 mW

for the past five years (~15%) Laser prices

20 000 00

30,000.00

40,000.00

Cos

t projected to continuedropping in

0.00

10,000.00

20,000.00pp g

similar fashion in the next 5 years

Source: OptoIQ, 2008

0.002008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Year

years

Page 16: 3D Holography: When Might it become Economically Feasible?

Holographic Mediag p16

Comparison in Key Performance Metrics in Holographic Recording M t i l [1 2]

Recording medium should have25,000

30,000

100%

120%

)

Materials [1,2]

1) High diffraction efficiency

2) Wide resolution range

15,000

20,000

60%

80%

Resolution Lim

ion E

ffic

ienc

y (%

)

g

5,000

10,000

20%

40%

it (um)

Diff

ract

i

Max. Resolution limit [mm−1]

Min. Resolution limit [mm−1]

Max. Resolution limit [um]

Min. Resolution limit [um]

M Diff i Effi i

00%

phic

em

ulsio

ns

mpl

itude

)

phic

em

ulsio

ns

e, b

leac

hed)

mat

ed g

elat

in

Phot

ores

ists

herm

opla

stic

s

Phot

opol

ymer

s

Phot

ochr

omic

s

otor

efra

ctiv

es

Elas

tom

ers

Max. efficiencyMax. Diffraction Efficiency

Phot

ogra (Am

Phot

ogra

(Pha

s e

Dic

hro

Phot

ot P P

Pho

[1] Lecture Holography and optical phase conjugation held at ETH Zürich by Prof. G. Montemezzani in 2002 [2] Ablation of nanoparticles for holographic recordings in elastomers: http://pubs.acs.org/doi/full/10.1021/la102693m

Page 17: 3D Holography: When Might it become Economically Feasible?

Holographic Media

1) Silver Halide Emulsion

g p17

High exposure sensitivity over a wide range of spectral regions

High resolving power

Suitable for transmission/reflection holograms (amplitude and phase type) / g ( p p yp )

2) Dichromated Gelatin Material Record multicolour reflection holograms

Suitable for very high efficiency and low noise holograms

5) Photorefractive polymer [1]

Used for 3D dynamic holograms, enables the 3D telepresence

N d f i l l Suitable for very high efficiency and low noise holograms

3) Photorefractive Crystals Material use for real-time holography

l bl h h l l b l d l h d d d

No need for special glasses

Refreshes images every 2 seconds; quasi real-time

Good for large-area and dynamically updatable holographic recording media

Recyclable! Photothermoplastics can also be recycled several hundred times and are most suitable for holographic interferometry

4) Photoresist Material Suitable for producing surface relief holograms

Most sensitive to ultraviolet/blue light only.[1] P.-A. Blanche et al, Holographic three-dimensional telepresence using large-area photorefractive polymer, Nature Volume:

468, Pages: 80–83, 04 November 2010, DOI 10.1038/nature09521

Page 18: 3D Holography: When Might it become Economically Feasible?

Photorefractive Polymer: Performance

1) Refresh Rate

18

y

University of Arizona (UA) took 2 s to write & erase a full-colour dynamic holographic image in 2010 vs. 4 mins in 2008 [1,2]

marked improvement of ~100x in 2 years!

Quoting UA lead author of the study Blanche, “In two years we improved the speed by a factor of 100. If we can improve the speed by the same factor, we will be over video rate. It will be done.” [2]

Next step: 6 fps (~0.2s); to progress towards a refresh rate of 24-30 fps

2) Display Size) p y 17” (current largest)

Have to scale up the display size to 85” for outdoor billboard advertising & 6–8 ft (life-size) for telepresencing to be truly possible( ) p g y p

[1] http://news.inventhelp.com/Articles/Electronics/Inventions/three-dimensional-dynamic-holography-12521.aspx[2] http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2010/11/holographic-video/

Page 19: 3D Holography: When Might it become Economically Feasible?

Photorefractive Polymer: Cost Projection

Sony's Display Cost based on Display Size & Technology (as of Dec 2010) [1-3]

Sony's Display Cost per Inch based on Display Technology (as of Dec 2010) [1-3]

19

P r o je c t e d C o s t o f P h o t o r e f r a c t iv e P o ly m e r b a s e d o n S c r e e n S iz e

y j

3500

4000

4500

5000 XEL-1 OLED TV Bravia XBR10 Series LED 3D TV Bravia XBR9 Series LCD TV

Technology (as of Dec 2010)

160180200220240260

XEL-1 OLED TV Bravia XBR10 Series LED 3D TV Bravia XBR9 Series LCD TV

Display Technology (as of Dec 2010)

nch)2 5 0 0 0

3 0 0 0 0

3 5 0 0 0

b a s e d o n S c r e e n S iz e D y n a m ic p h o to r e f r a c t iv e p o ly m e r ( P r o je c te d ) D y n a m ic p h o to p o ly m e r ( E x t r a p o la te f r o m Z e b r a Im a g in g ) S ta t ic p h o to p o ly m e r ( Z e b r a Im a g in g )

2000

2500

3000

3500

Cos

t ($)

6080

100120140160

Cos

t/inc

h ($

/in

1 0 0 0 0

1 5 0 0 0

2 0 0 0 0

Cos

t ($)

Photorefractive polymer is projected to cost ~4x more than

10 20 30 40 50 60

1500

Display Size (inches)

10 20 30 40 50 60

40

Display Size (inches)1 0 2 0 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 00

5 0 0 0

S c r e e n S iz e ( in c h e s )

Photorefractive polymer is projected to cost 4x more than static photopolymer $1500 for 12”x18” & $3500 & 2 ft by 3 ft static 3D holograms by Zebra

I i [4]Imaging [4]

[1] Sony XEL-1 OLED TV pricing: http://reviews.cnet.com/oled/sony-xel-1-oled/4505-13948_7-32815284.html[2] Sony Bravia XBR10 Series LED 3D TV pricing: http://www.best-led-tv.net/46%E2%80%B3-sony-bravia-xbr10.html[3] Sony Bravia XBR9 Series LCD TV pricing: http://www.practical-home-theater-guide.com/sony-lcd-tv-1.html[4] Zebra Imaging Print Cost: http://www.3d-display-info.com/zebra-imaging-prints-large-3d-holograms

Page 20: 3D Holography: When Might it become Economically Feasible?

Transmission Media20

Transmission rate projected to increase by about tenfold over a decade

Current transmission capacity of fibre is in the region of ~ 2.5 to10 Gbps

Has the potential to go up to 40 or even 160 Gbps

Capable of supporting a very large

Capable of supporting a prototype hologram (17”)

size hologram (~500”)

http://www.telebyteusa.com/foprimer/foch1.htmhttp://www.rp-photonics.com/optical_fiber_communications.htmlhttp://www.belden.com/pdfs/Techpprs/10_Gbps_LAN_Segment_WP.pdf

Page 21: 3D Holography: When Might it become Economically Feasible?

Transmission Media: Cost Projection 21

Transmission Media: Cost Projection Relative cost trends comparing 10 Gbps vs 4GbpsGbps vs. 4Gbps

Transmission cost projected to drop by ~75% in a decade By 2016, 10Gbps is expected to cost ~$225 By 2016, 10Gbps is expected to cost $225

www.corning.com/docs/opticalfiber/CM00000004.pdf

Page 22: 3D Holography: When Might it become Economically Feasible?

Microprocessorp

Currently, a processor is capable of supporting up to 42” hologram Currently, a processor is capable of supporting up to 42 hologram

Estimated that 23 processors (16-core) in 2016 will be able to support a large billboard size hologram

Intel’s E7 Xeon 10-core

Page 23: 3D Holography: When Might it become Economically Feasible?

Microprocessor: Cost Projectionp j23

Average transistor price expected b 10 10 i 2016to be 10-10 in 2016

Estimated cost trend for microprocessor

Currently, 6-core processor with 109 transistors costs ~$300

In 2016, 16-core processor with ~ 5*1010 transistors is expected to cost ~$300

http://www.singularity.com/charts/page62.htmlhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_count

Page 24: 3D Holography: When Might it become Economically Feasible?

FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES

Page 25: 3D Holography: When Might it become Economically Feasible?

Future Opportunitiespp25

Advertising Gaming Education Training Richard Branson Hologram – Virgin Digital Launch

Communication Medical Forensic Science

Page 26: 3D Holography: When Might it become Economically Feasible?

Entrepreneurial Opportunitiesp pp26

Lasers or alternative light sources Optics

(e.g. diffusers, filters, diffraction gratings) Software developer p

(e.g. algorithms) Photorefractive materials Photorefractive materials Silicon photonics

Page 27: 3D Holography: When Might it become Economically Feasible?

Conclusion

With a trend of moving towards 3D and virtual

27

With a trend of moving towards 3D and virtual reality, Holographic System will dominate the display, advertising and entertainment industriesp y, g

This is largely attributed to: This is largely attributed to: Lowering of cost of key componentsAdvancement in holographic technologyAdvancement in holographic technologyAdvancement in technologies of key components

Page 28: 3D Holography: When Might it become Economically Feasible?

THANK YOU(Q&A)