30/11/2009 - latibex – novembro de 2009
TRANSCRIPT
Latibex ForumNovember, 2009
22
7 million Clients6 thousand AES People
AES Brasil Group
85.4%
14.6%
Others
AES Brasil
3.0%
Discos
Gencos
Market Share... with a 2008 result:
R$ 3.2 billion (Ebitda)R$ 1.7 billion (net income)
Investments 1998 - 2008:
R$ 5 billion after privatization
DiscoTrading Company Telecom
Genco
97.0%
33
• 30 year concession until 2029 and renewable for another 30 year
• 10 hydroelectric plants in the State of São Paulo at Tietê, Pardo and Mogi Guaçu rivers
• Installed capacity of 2,651 MW with assured energy of 1,275 MW
• 100% of assured energy contracted with AES Eletropaulo until the end of 2015
• 8 Small Hydro Projects under analysis with total capacity of 133MW
• 2 Small Hydro Plants under construction totalizing 7 MW
Overview
UHE Bariri
UHE Nova Avanhandava
UHE Ibitinga
UHE Barra Bonita
UHE Promissão
UHE Água Vermelha
PCH Mogi-Guaçu
UHE Euclides da Cunha
UHE Caconde
UHE Limoeiro
AES Tietê
44
Net Income – R$ million
2007 200820062006 2007 2008
0.7
0.4
0.7
Net Debt – R$ billion
9M09
0.4
1- SHPPs Jaguari Mirim and Piabanha
New SHPPs1
Investments
2006 2007 2008 2009(e) 9M09
12847
51 59
3935
20 33
22
1143
Investments Breakdown – R$ million
609692
614
49
63
14
Ebitda – R$ million
2007 20082006 9M09
1,2541,0991,097 1,028
79% 79%75%
0.3x0.6x0.6x
100 % 100 %100 %
44% 44%42%
Net Margin
Pay-outNet Debt / Ebitda
Ebitda Margin
9M08
30
355
9M08
936
79% 81%
0.3x0.4x
9M08
0.5
9M08 9M09
495636
42%50 %
100 % 100 %
Financial Facts
55
Annual Growth: 4,8% a.a. 102,082 MW
84% Renewable*
154,645 MW
80% Renewable*
* Renewable sources = Hydro, Small Hydro Plant (SHP), Biomass and Wind
2009 2017
Source: 10 year Electric Expansion Plan - MME/EPE
Electric Energy:Brazil Installed Capacity
66
Incentives for Renewable Energies
• Renewable sources, such as small hydros, wind, biomass, waste and solar plants with installed capacity up to 30 MW receive public incentives
• Long-term contracts are granted to incentivized energy generators through specific energy auctions
• Renewable energy generators and free consumers that acquire incentivized energy are entitled to a discount (ranging from 50% to 100%) in their tariffs for the use of distribution network
• No concession or bid process required, just an authorization from Regulatory Agency (ANEEL)
• Tax exemption
• Special credit facilities (BNDES)
77
Brazilian Hydroelectric Potential (MW)
Generation PotentialHydro
Source: 10 year Electric Expansion Plan - MME/EPE
����� ��� ����� � ������ �� ����� ���� � ��� �
Amazonas 835 77,058 28,256 106,149 42.2Paraná 41,696 10,742 5,363 57,801 23.0Tocantins/ Araguaia 12,198 11,297 4,540 28,035 11.2São Francisco 10,290 5,550 1,917 17,757 7.1Atlântico Sudeste 4,107 9,501 1,120 14,728 5.9Uruguai 5,182 6,482 1,152 12,816 5.1Atlântico Sul 1,637 1,734 2,066 5,437 2.2Atlântico Leste 1,100 1,950 1,037 4,087 1.6Paraguai 499 846 1,757 3,102 1.2Parnaíba 225 819 0 1,044 0.4Atlântico NE Oc. 0 58 318 376 0.1Atlântico NE Or. 8 127 23 158 <0.1Total 77,777 126,164 47,549 251,490% 30.9 50.2 18.9 100.0
100.0
88
Potential Bioelectricity Market for Export (MWavg)
Generation PotentialBioelectricity
Source: Unica
1,800 2,0873,358
4,1585,158
6,1587,158
8,1589,158
10,15811,158
12,15813,158
2008
/2009
2009
/2010
2010
/2011
2011
/2012
2012
/2013
2013
/2014
2014
/2015
2015
/2016
2016
/2017
2017
/2018
2018
/2019
2019
/2020
2020
/2021
CAGR: 18%
99
First Energy Auction from Wind Farms
approved by the Regulatory Agency (ANEEL)
• Auction scheduled for 14th of December of 2009
• Energy supply through wind farms starting in
July, 2012
• 20 years PPA
• Ceiling bidding prices established in US$
93/MWh (Dutch Auction) (FX = R$ 2.02 /US$)
• Estimated amount of energy to be
commercialized:13.3 GW (441 subscribed
projects)
Generation PotentialWind
North 9%
(12.8 GW)
Center West 2%
(3.1 GW)
Northeast 52%
(75 GW)
South
16%
(22.8 GW)
Southeast 21%
(29.7 GW)
TOTAL WIND POTENTIAL OF 143.5 GW
Source: ANEEL, Eletrobras
1010Source: ANEEL
COD with environmental hazard
COD with environmental restrictions
COD without any restrictions
In operation
23 92 147415 483 609
8371,090
1,733
2,507
3,240
3,6773,806
3,845
5,356
Generation PotentialSmall Hydro
Installed Capacity (MW)
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
...
The statements contained in this document with regard to the business prospects, projected operating and financial results, and growth potential are merely forecasts based on the expectations of the Company’s Management in relation to its future performance. Such estimates are highly dependent on market behavior and on the conditions affecting Brazil’s macroeconomic performance as well as the electric sector and international market, and they are therefore subject to changes.
Contacts:[email protected]
+ 55 11 2195 7048