3006742 ihdp update 3 05 - ihdp.unu. ?· increase in conferences devoted to land change, journal...

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  • N E W S L E T T E R O F T H E I N T E R N A T I O N A L H U M A N D I M E N S I O N S P R O G R A M M E O N G L O B A L E N V I R O N M E N T A L C H A N G EUPDATEIHDP

    03/2005

    W W W . I H D P . O R GI H D P U p d a t e i s p u b l i s h e d b y t h e I n t e r n a t i o n a l H u m a n D i m e n s i o n s P r o g r a m m e o n G l o b a l E n v i r o m e n t a l C h a n g e ( I H D P ) , Wa l t e r - F l e x - S t r. 3 , 5 3 1 1 3 B o n n , G e r m a n y, V. i . S . d . P. : U l a L w

    1 Land-Use and Land-Cover Change:Developing and Implementing anAgenda for Local Processes withGlobal Impacts | E. Lambin, H. Geist,R. R. Rindfuss

    4 Global Changes in Land Cover | N. Ramankutty et. al.

    6 Causes, Trajectories and Syndromesof Land-Use/Cover Change | H. Geist,E. Lambin, W. McConnell, D. Alves

    8 Pixels or Agents? Modelling Land-Use and Land-Cover Change | P. Verburg, K. Kok, T. Veldkamp

    10 Global Land Scenarios: The Searchfor the Future of Land | J. Alcamo,G. Busch

    12 Multiple Impacts of Land-Use/Cover Change | A. Chhabra,H. Haberl, A. Braimoh

    13 Linking Land-Use/Cover Change Science and Policy | R. S. Reid,X. Jianchu, H. Geist

    14 Frontier in Land-Use/Cover ChangeResearch | The LUCC Scientific Steering Committee

    16 List of Authors

    17 GECHS and LOICZ:Meeting Reports

    18 In Brief, Publications

    19 Meeting Calendar, Publications

    C O N T E N T S

    Following preparatory work in the early 1990s, the Land-Use/Cover Change (LUCC)project was created to develop a research agenda for one of the primary drivers of glob-

    al change. It was organized as an interdisciplinary joint core project of the International

    Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) and the International Human Dimensions

    Programme on Global Environmental Change (IHDP), formalized in 1995 through the

    publication of its science/research plan (Turner et al., 1995) and reaching the stage of

    full implementation four years later (Lambin et al., 1999). From its beginning, the proj-

    ect was unique because it integrated social and biophysical science. After a decade of

    operation, the LUCC project will phase out in October 2005. Here we introduce this

    special issue with its seven articles, and provide thoughts on the LUCC project.

    The three missions of the LUCC project had been to build a compendium of infor-

    mation about local land-use and land-cover dynamics, to identify a small number of

    robust principles that can better knit together local insights into a predictive science,

    continued on page 2

    LAND-USE AND LAND-COVER CHANGE: DEVEL-

    OPING AND IMPLEMENTING AN AGENDA FOR

    LOCAL PROCESSES WITH GLOBAL IMPACTS

    BY ERIC LAMBIN, HELMUT GEIST AND RONALD R. RINDFUSS

    Grap

    hics

    by

    Josh

    Tayl

    or

    ISSN 1727-155X

    FO CUS:

    LAND-USE AND LAND-COVER CHANGE

    Verwendete Acrobat Distiller 7.0 JoboptionsDieser Report wurde mit Hilfe der Adobe Acrobat Distiller Erweiterung "Distiller Secrets v3.0.2" der IMPRESSED GmbH erstellt.Registrierte Kunden knnen diese Startup-Datei fr die Distiller Versionen 7.0.x kostenlos unter http://www.impressed.de/DistillerSecrets herunterladen.ALLGEMEIN ----------------------------------------Beschreibung: Fr Internet und BildschirmdarstellungDateioptionen: Kompatibilitt: PDF 1.4 Komprimierung auf Objektebene: Nur Tags Seiten automatisch drehen: Zusammen pro Datei Bund: Links Auflsung: 600 dpi Alle Seiten Piktogramme einbetten: Nein Fr schnelle Web-Anzeige optimieren: JaPapierformat: Breite: 208.347 Hhe: 294.661 mmKOMPRIMIERUNG ------------------------------------Farbbilder: Neuberechnung: Bikubische Neuberechnung auf 72 ppi (Pixel pro Zoll) fr Auflsung ber 108 ppi (Pixel pro Zoll) Komprimierung: Automatisch (JPEG) Bildqualitt: NiedrigGraustufenbilder: Neuberechnung: Bikubische Neuberechnung auf 72 ppi (Pixel pro Zoll) fr Auflsung ber 108 ppi (Pixel pro Zoll) Komprimierung: Automatisch (JPEG) Bildqualitt: NiedrigSchwarzweibilder: Neuberechnung: Bikubische Neuberechnung auf 200 ppi (Pixel pro Zoll) fr Auflsung ber 300 ppi (Pixel pro Zoll) Komprimierung: CCITT Gruppe 4 Mit Graustufen gltten: AusRichtlinien: Richtlinien fr Farbbilder Bei Bildauflsung unter: 150 ppi (Pixel pro Zoll) Ignorieren Richtlinien fr Graustufenbilder Bei Bildauflsung unter: 150 ppi (Pixel pro Zoll) Ignorieren Richtlinen fr monochrome Bilder Bei Bildauflsung unter: 1200 ppi (Pixel pro Zoll) IgnorierenFONTS --------------------------------------------Alle Schriften einbetten: JaUntergruppen aller eingebetteten Schriften: JaUntergruppen, wenn benutzte Zeichen kleiner als: 100 %Wenn Einbetten fehlschlgt: Warnen und weiterEinbetten: Schrift immer einbetten: [ ] Schrift nie einbetten: [ ]FARBE --------------------------------------------Farbmanagement: Einstellungsdatei: None Farbmanagement: Farbe nicht ndern Wiedergabemethode: StandardGerteabhngige Daten: Unterfarbreduktion und Schwarzaufbau beibehalten: Ja Transferfunktionen: Anwenden Rastereinstellungen beibehalten: NeinERWEITERT ----------------------------------------Optionen: berschreiben der Adobe PDF-Einstellungen durch PostScript zulassen: Ja PostScript XObjects zulassen: Ja Farbverlufe in Smooth Shades konvertieren: Ja Geglttene Linien in Kurven konvertieren: Ja (Grenzwert fr Glttung: 0.1) Level 2 copypage-Semantik beibehalten: Ja Einstellungen fr berdrucken beibehalten: Ja berdruckstandard ist nicht Null: Ja Adobe PDF-Einstellungen in PDF-Datei speichern: Nein Ursprngliche JPEG-Bilder wenn mglich in PDF speichern: Ja Portable Job Ticket in PDF-Datei speichern: Nein Prologue.ps und Epilogue.ps verwenden: Nein JDF-Datei (Job Definition Format) erstellen: Nein(DSC) Document Structuring Conventions: DSC-Kommentare verarbeiten: Ja DSC-Warnungen protokollieren: Nein EPS-Info von DSC beibehalten: Nein OPI-Kommentare beibehalten: Nein Dokumentinfo von DSC beibehalten: Ja Fr EPS-Dateien Seitengre ndern und Grafiken zentrieren: JaPDF/X --------------------------------------------Standards - Berichterstellung und Kompatibilitt: Kompatibilittsstandard: NeinANDERE -------------------------------------------Distiller-Kern Version: 7000ZIP-Komprimierung verwenden: JaASCII-Format: NeinText und Vektorgrafiken komprimieren: JaMinimale Bittiefe fr Farbbild Downsampling: 1Minimale Bittiefe fr Graustufenbild Downsampling: 2Farbbilder gltten: NeinGraustufenbilder gltten: NeinFarbbilder beschneiden: JaGraustufenbilder beschneiden: JaSchwarzweibilder beschneiden: JaBilder (< 257 Farben) in indizierten Farbraum konvertieren: JaBildspeicher: 1048576 ByteOptimierungen deaktivieren: 0Transparenz zulassen: NeinICC-Profil Kommentare parsen: JasRGB Arbeitsfarbraum: sRGB IEC61966-2.1DSC-Berichtstufe: 0Flatness-Werte beibehalten: JaGrenzwert fr knstlichen Halbfettstil: 1.0ENDE DES REPORTS ---------------------------------IMPRESSED GmbHBahrenfelder Chaussee 4922761 Hamburg, GermanyTel. +49 40 897189-0Fax +49 40 897189-71Email: info@impressed.deWeb: www.impressed.de
  • 2 | I H D P N E W S L E T T E R 3 / 2 0 0 5

    Land-Use and Land-Cover Change

    In a second period, following completion of the implemen-

    tation strategy in 1999, major headway was made towards syn-

    thesizing methodologies and generating results on land-

    use/cover change for various classes of land change such as trop-

    ical deforestation, desertification, agricultural intensification,

    and urbanization (see figure). This was primarily achieved

    through a series of synthesis workshops and conferences. The

    support infrastructure and dialogue with funding agencies in

    the Americas, Europe and Asia continued to be maintained.

    In the final phase of the LUCC project, starting around

    2003, the concept of land-use transition was discussed within

    the scientific steering committee and implications were drawn

    for a transition towards sustainable land use. Also in this final

    phase, efforts have been concentrated on the creation of a syn-

    thesis book, which is nearing completion and the contents of

    which are reflected in the following seven articles.

    From the beginning, researchers from multiple disciplines

    spanning the physical, spatial and social sciences have been

    involved in LUCC. These researchers brought with them the

    methods and theories of the disciplines in which they were

    trained. Much of the early work on integration across studies

    involved either data and methodological issues or substantive

    empirical results. The empirical work, especially the case stud-

    ies, was guided by multiple theories, with the specific mix pri-

    marily determined by the disciplinary origins of the investiga-

    tors on the team.

    What has not yet emerged is an overarching theory that

    incorporates the insights from multiple social and natural sci-

    ences, and that explains change in the behavior of people as

    well as land cover/use change. We believe the time is ripe for

    one or more such overarching theories to be developed. There

    is evidence that a land change science is emerging, building on

    the foundations constructed by LUCC. We are seeing a steady

    increase in conferences devoted to land change, journal arti-

    cles reporting land change science results, and funding avail-

    able to pursue land change science. Emerging sciences need

    their own theories. Empirical research has started to pro-

    duce a number of styliz