29 april daily technical trader
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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar
Wednesday, 29 April 2015
Stocks Covered Today
Ticker Price 1st
Target
QNNS 101.00 103.50
QATI 80.50 83.00
QSE Index
Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)
Last 12,209.54 0.1 12.9
Resistance/Support
Levels 1st
2nd
3rd
Resistance 12,400 12,600 12,800
Support 12,200 12,100 12,000
QSE Index Commentary
Overview: The QSE Index crawled higher in the previous session and created a Doji candlestick. That demonstrates market participants may have reached equilibrium for the day. Although the Index is in an uptrend, beware of a break below the 12,170 level – it could spark the anticipated correction. Keep in mind that the Index rose over 10% over the past month. Expected Resistance Level: 12,400 Expected Support Level: 12,100
QSE Index (Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
QE Summary
Market Indicators 28 Apr 15 27 Apr 15 %Ch.
Value Traded (QR mn) 326.6 719.9 -54.6
Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 654.5 654.2 0.1
Volume (mn) 7.2 18.3 -60.6
Number of Trans. 4,543 7,620 -40.4
Companies Traded 42 41 2.4
Market Breadth 16:19 33:6 –
QE Indices
Market Indices Close 1D% RSI
Total Return 18,974.26 0.1 65.6
All Share Index 3,259.27 0.1 65.7
Banks 3,259.11 0.2 62.2
Industrials 4,035.27 0.1 62.8
Transportation 2,497.82 0.5 64.6
Real Estate 2,638.24 -0.3 70.1
Insurance 4,177.80 1.3 58.8
Telecoms 1,309.50 -0.1 39.4
Consumer 7,318.66 -0.4 65.4
Al Rayan Islamic 4,645.21 0.1 74.5
RSI 14 (Over Bought)
Ticker Close 1D% RSI
QEWS 212.40 0.0 81.2
MERS 238.90 0.4 75.2
GWCS 72.00 0.3 74.9
QIGD 48.50 0.1 74.9
MRDS 19.66 0.0 74.1
RSI 14 (Over Sold)
Ticker Close 1D% RSI
QSE Index (30min)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
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QNNS
Price % Ch. Volume
Last 101.00 1.51 224,277
Resistance/Support
Levels (QR) 1st
2nd
3rd
Resistance 101.50 103.50 105.00
Support 100.00 98.00 97.00
Commentary
Overview: QNNS traded in a price range between QR97.00 and QR101.00 for almost a month. The name made a strong bullish candlestick with higher volumes throughout the last session. Thus, if the name breaks above QR101.50, positive momentum might continue to push the price higher. Expected Target Price: QR103.50 – QR105.00 A break above QR101.50 is needed to trigger the buy recommendation. Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR99.00
(Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
(Hourly)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
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QATI
Price % Ch. Volume
Last 80.50 2.03 195,050
Resistance/Support
Levels (QR) 1st
2nd
3rd
Resistance 80.50 83.00 85.00
Support 79.50 76.50 73.50
Commentary
Overview: QATI just breached above a downtrend line which extended from October of last year. This break happened after a long price consolidation which started since the beginning of the year. In addition, this breakout was accompanied with high traded volumes which support the strength of the breach. This might be a start of a bullish leg over the medium term. Expected Target Price: QR83.00 – QR85.00 A break above 80.50 is needed to trigger the long position recommendation. Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR78.00
(Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
(Hourly)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
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Intraday Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels
Ticker Close 3rd
2nd
1st
Pivot 1st
2nd
3rd
50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA
QSE Index 12,209.54 12,128.64 12,160.01 12,179.40 12,210.77 12,242.14 12,261.53 12,292.90 11,979.75 12,054.19 12,776.39
Total Return 18,974.26 18,848.53 18,897.29 18,927.41 18,976.17 19,024.93 19,055.05 19,103.81 18,434.69 18,274.08 19,203.55
All Share 3,259.27 3,240.72 3,248.04 3,252.56 3,259.89 3,267.21 3,271.73 3,279.06 3,177.98 3,144.71 3,279.66
Al Rayan Islamic 4,645.21 4,606.52 4,622.27 4,632.00 4,647.75 4,663.50 4,673.23 4,688.98 4,384.08 4,244.73 4,406.37
Banks & Financials Services
MARK 49.80 49.13 49.34 49.47 49.68 49.89 50.02 50.23 47.44 46.42 49.93
CBQK 56.70 56.30 56.45 56.55 56.70 56.85 56.95 57.10 59.45 60.50 62.51
DHBK 54.20 53.87 53.98 54.05 54.17 54.28 54.35 54.47 53.23 54.90 57.10
QIBK 102.10 101.10 101.67 102.03 102.60 103.17 103.53 104.10 101.37 102.19 106.68
QIIK 81.10 80.43 80.78 80.99 81.33 81.68 81.89 82.23 82.08 81.41 84.14
Insurance
QATI 80.50 78.30 78.99 79.41 80.10 80.79 81.21 81.90 78.52 76.70 79.76
Consumer Goods & Services
MCGS 169.60 167.53 168.49 169.08 170.03 170.99 171.58 172.53 150.60 136.02 129.37
Industrials
IQCD 145.40 143.87 144.59 145.04 145.77 146.49 146.94 147.67 143.09 152.13 169.49
QEWS 212.40 210.47 211.46 212.07 213.07 214.06 214.67 215.67 191.57 190.46 188.96
GISS 86.60 85.60 86.06 86.34 86.80 87.26 87.54 88.00 91.48 94.24 106.10
QIGD 48.50 47.37 47.88 48.20 48.72 49.23 49.55 50.07 42.58 41.08 47.62
Real Estate
BRES 50.90 49.77 50.26 50.57 51.07 51.56 51.87 52.37 47.69 45.80 44.33
UDCD 22.50 22.27 22.38 22.45 22.56 22.67 22.74 22.85 22.46 23.18 25.57
ERES 17.09 16.96 17.02 17.06 17.11 17.17 17.21 17.26 16.13 15.68 17.78
MRDS 18.90 18.84 18.86 18.87 18.89 18.91 18.92 18.94 19.26 19.47 20.81
Telecommunication
ORDS 99.00 98.00 98.50 98.80 99.30 99.80 100.10 100.60 105.76 111.02 119.15
VFQS 17.35 17.13 17.22 17.28 17.37 17.46 17.52 17.61 17.57 16.76 18.46
Transportation
QGTS 22.70 22.42 22.55 22.62 22.75 22.88 22.95 23.08 23.27 23.23 23.67
QNNS 101.00 98.93 99.62 100.05 100.73 101.42 101.85 102.53 102.07 99.93 98.29 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price
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Definitions:
Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening
and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is
lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they
compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.
Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.
Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the
security price to head lower.
SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus
considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative
price direction and potential support/resistance levels.
Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in
a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally
use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be
considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.
Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &
shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.
Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These
levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.
Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot
Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.
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Contacts:
Saugata Sarkar Sahbi Kasraoui QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research Head of HNI Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 PO Box 24025
[email protected] [email protected] Doha, Qatar
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