29 april 2008eea blossom workshop1 strategic futures in the uk a personal reflection gary kass

29 April 2008 EEA Blossom workshop 1

Strategic Futures in the UK

A personal reflectionGary Kass


Outline• Developing a long-term perspective

– UK Foresight programme (evolution of purpose and method)– Environmental futures (Defra, EA, NE)– Other support for strategic thinking (Cabinet Office, National

School for Government)

• Impact of futures on policy-making– Foresight flood and coastal defence project– Horizon Scanning Centre – S&T Clusters– Evaluation of Foresight – Broader impacts and influences

• Where next? the future of futures?


Developing a long-term perspective

• UK Foresight programme• Environmental futures• Other support for strategic thinking


UK Foresight programme

• Phase 1: 1993: Technology Foresight; sector-driven, delphi process

• Phase 2: 1999: Foresight: sectors plus themes (e.g. ageing, sustainability); wider range of methods (delphi, road-mapping, scenarios – Foresight 2020)

• Phase 3: 2002: ‘new’ Foresight – more like technology assessment: topic-led; more explicit futures techniques


Foresight projectsActive projects• Land Use Futures • Mental capital and well being • Sustainable Energy Management and the Built Environment

Completed Projects• Tackling Obesities: Future Choices • The Detection and Identification of Infectious Diseases • Intelligent Infrastructure Systems • Brain Science, Addiction and Drugs • Cyber Trust and Crime Prevention • Exploiting the Electromagnetic Spectrum • Cognitive Systems • Flood and Coastal Defence


Environmental Futures

• Defra Horizon Scanning and Futures:– 5 years and then major review and redesign

• Environment Agency science scans and scenarios

• Natural England futures programme • Towards a shared environmental futures

capability


Defra Rural Futures project


Rural Futures (2)


Environment Agency scenariosSustainability-led governance

Growth-led governance

UK

gov

erna

nce

syst

ems

‘Restoration’ ‘Alchemy’

‘Survivor’ ‘Jeopardy’

H2

Material consumptionDematerialised consumption


NE future-proofing of strategy

• Critical uncertainties (from review of existing futures work):– Population and demographic change to 2050– Identity, values and place-shaping– Engagement, learning and behaviour change– Marine futures– Ecosystem services approach to policy– Technology and innovation– Globalisation and the natural environment


Other support for strategic thinking

• Cabinet Office– Strategy Unit– Realising Britain’s Potential (Feb 2008)– Professional Skills for Government

• National School for Government– Strategic thinking training– Strategy benchmarking

• Scottish Parliament– Scotland Futures Forum


Cabinet Office – The Strategy UnitRealising Britain’s Potential (Feb 08)• Look at the future challenges and opportunities

facing Britain in both global & domestic context • Set out the key questions and choices that flow

from these challenges• Establish an evidence base on which policy

makers can build future strategy • Mixed methods: trends and drivers; public

concerns and expectations; review available projections and scenarios; analysis of Britain’s current strengths and challenges

• Futures in other departments and agencies


Key challenges for Britain• Global Britain: preparing for continued success• Economic Prosperity: ensuring that UK workers &

businesses can prosper• Life Chances: Tackling the barriers to opportunity and

reducing inequality to unlock all of Britain’s talents• The Population Picture: Supporting a growing, ageing

and more diverse population• Families and Communities: Strengthening family life

and fostering strong communities in Britain• Safe Britain: Ensuring a safe and secure Britain for all• Personalised Public Services: Tailoring public services• The Climate Challenge: Transition to a low-C Britain• Democratic Renewal: Modernising democracy




School of Government)




Impact on policy-making

• Foresight coastal defence project

"We are pleased to see that Making Space for Water has incorporated much of the thinking from the Flood and Coastal Defence project at the highest policy level"

Phil Rothwell, Head of Flood Risk Management Policy, Environment Agency


S&T Clusters

• Impact on wealth creation, changing society or transforming public services: – Advanced materials and robotics; Body and

mind sciences; Energy technologies; Information handling and knowledge management; Nanotechnologies; Network interactions; Security; Sensors and tracking

– Informed strategic priorities in government’s comprehensive spending review 2006/07


Foresight evaluation

• 2006: “The … Programme has achieved its objectives of identifying ways in which future science and technology could address future challenges for society and identifying potential opportunities”

• “…directly informed national policies and programmes…mobilising diverse groups… engaged senior policy makers.”

• Currently undergoing impact audit of reports


Broader impacts and influences• Parliamentary inquiry: Governing the Future• Strategy Unit & Foresight “highly regarded”• Strategic thinking as core skill for policy-makers• National School for Government• Using outsiders: e.g. Stern Review, Pensions

Commission…• “In some circumstances, simply conducting

research and setting out the evidence creates a compelling case for policy change”, from Governing the Future




School of Government)




Where next? The future of futures

• Futures is now where strategy was 10 years ago

• Progress made, but still much to do– The ‘centre’ versus departments– Long-term versus short-term– Process versus product– Openness: uncertainty is not a weakness– Capacity: skills, good practice, recognition & reward– Customers : helping to ask and answer their questions


The future of futures 2

• Foresight under a new Chief Scientist in a new Department and with a new Prime Minister?

• Joined-up futures? • A UK Report on the Future?• Parliament’s own futures forum?• A cycle of futures – Environmental Futures


A cycle of futures? Joined-up environmental futures

1. Horizon Scanning

2. Analysis & Synthesis

3. Large scale futures research

4. Upskilling

Overarching work areas:governance, communication, etc.

Individual Prioritisation

29 april 2008eea blossom workshop1 strategic futures in the uk a personal reflection gary kass

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