2.3 klimawandel durch treibhauseffekt.31 das klima der erde hat sich geändert.311 temperatur.311a...

2.3 Klimawandel durch Treibhauseffekt .31 Das Klima der Erde hat sich geändert .311 Temperatur .311a KlimaIndizes (El Nino, NAO ) .312 Niederschlag .313 Sea level .314 Gletscher .315 Arktisches Eis 3.16 Extreme 317 Übersicht .32 The Identification of human Influence on Climate Change Simulationen der globalen Temperatur lassen sich nicht alleine durch natürliche Strahlungsantriebe erklären .33 Treibhausgase in der Atmosphäre .331 Treibhausgase in der Atmosphäre seit der industriellen Revolution .331a Wo bleibt das in die Atmosphäre emittierte fossile CO2 ? .332 Atmospheric CO2 on different time-scales .333 Strahlungsantrieb und Global Warming Potential (GWP)

.34 Modelle .341 EBM- Energiebilanz Modell . 342 Übersicht über kompliziertere Modelle

.35 Projektionen und Szenarien für das 21. Jahrhundert . 351 “ Historische Perspektive“ . 352 Emissionsszenarien und die Komplexität der weiteren Entwicklung . 353 Main Climate Changes .36 Was tun? Erste Ansätze der Internationalen Gemeinschaft

2.3

„The Earth's climate system has changed,

globally and regionally

, with some these changes being attributable to human activities.“

2.31 Das Klima der Erde hat sich geändert .311 Temperatur .311a KlimaIndizes (El Nino, NAO ) .312 Niederschlag .313 Sea level .314 Gletscher .315 Arktisches Eis 3.16 Extreme 317 Übersicht

Quelle: IPCC-TAR (2001)

Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level.

Direct Observations of Recent Climate Change

Quelle: IPCC-AR4-wg1 , Vortrag Pachauri in Nairobi, 2007-0206

AR4 wird schon deutlicher:

unequivocal = eindeutig

•The Earth has warmed 0.6± 0.2 [K] since 1860 with the last two decades being the warmest of the last century; •The increase in surface temperatures over the 20th Century for the Northern hemisphere is likely to be greater than that for any other century in the last 1000 years; •Precipitation patterns have changed with an increase in heavy precipitation events in some regions;

•Sea level has risen 10-20 cm since 1900; most non-polar glaciers are retreating; and the extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice is decreasing in summer;

Quelle: IPCC-COP6a_Bonn2001_WatsonSpeech: p 1-Summary

2.310 Zusammenfassung der wichtigsten Erfahrungen (2001)

Zusammenfassung der wichtigsten Erfahrungen (2007)

Global average Air temperature• Updated 100-year linear trend of 0.74 [0.56 to 0.92] oC for 1906-2005 • Larger than corresponding trend of 0.6 [0.4 to 0.8] oC for 1901-2000 ( TAR)

Average Ocean temperature• increased to depths of at least 3000 m – ocean has absorbed 80% of heat added

> seawater expansion and SLR

At continental, regional, and ocean basin scales,• numerous long-term changes in climate have been observed:

– Changes in Arctic temperatures and ice, – Widespread changes in precipitation amounts, ocean salinity, wind patterns – and aspects of extreme weather including

droughts, heavy precipitation, heat waves and the intensity of tropical cyclones

Quelle: IPCC- AR4-wg1, Vortrag Pachauri in Nairobi, 2007-0206

Quelle: www.wmo.ch/web/Press/Press670.htm_graph1, erhalten 2002_0128; wmo_climate2001_fig1....jpeg /

Global Mean Temperatures 1860-2001 2.311 Temperatur

-- + 0,4 K

-- 0

‘98

‘95‘01

‘90+1‘83‘44

‘50 ‘76‘56 ‘64‘29

Erhalten 2005_1221

Aktueller Stand: Oberflächennahe Erdtemperatur

_____2005_1-11

Global mean temperatures are rising faster with time

100 0.0740.018 50 0.1280.026

Warmest 12 years:1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,200

6, 2001,1997,1995,1999,1990,200

0

Period Rate

Years /decade


Warming in the Arctic is double that for the globe from 19th to 21st century and from late 1960s to present.

Warmth 1925 to 1950 in Arctic was not as widespread as recent global warmth.

Note different scales

Arctic vs Global annual temperature anomalies (°C)


Ein Blick in die Stratosphäre

Datenquelle: Angell, 2004

Globaltemperatur Stratosphäre (16 - 24 km), Anomalien 1960 - 2002 (relativ zu 1958 - 1977)

und einige explosive Vulkanausbrüche

-2

-1,5

-1

-0,5

0

0,5

1

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Zeit in Jahren

Tem

pera

tura

nom

alie

n in

°C

K Trend: - 1.89 °CAgung(1963+1)

Fernandia (1968+2) St. Augustine (1976)

El Chichón (1982)

Pinatubo (1991+1)

Global gemittelte Temperatur der Stratosphäre (16 - 24 km)

Anomalien 1960-2002 (relativ zu 1958-1977)und einige explosive Vulkanausbrüche

Trend: - 1,9 °C

BQuelle:DPG2005_SyKE1.4Schoenwiese_CC-imIndustriezeitalter.ppt

BQuelle: IPCC_AR4wg1_TS: Fig TS.7, p.38

Beobachtete Temperaturen innerhalb

der Atmosphäre

Temperatures shown as monthly mean anomalies relative to the period 1979 to 1997smoothed with a seven-month running mean filter.

Dashed lines indicatethe times of major volcanic eruptions. {Figure 3.17}

Millennial Northern Hemisphere (NH) Temperature from AD 1000-1999

Source: Mann et al. 1999.

Quelle: IPCC_2000_WatsonSpeech: Fig 1

The 1990s were warmer than at anytime during the last 1000 years

Langzeitperspektive:

Das war die berühmte „hockey stick“ Temperatukurve der Nordhalkugel

• Über dies berühmte Kurve von Mann e.a. aus dem IPCC –Report 2001 haben sich viele Autoren mächtig aufgeregt. Wichtigster Streitpunkt: War es im Hochmittelalter nicht doch etwas wärmer?

• Man beachte aber die breiten Fehlerbalken.

• Man kann die Ausgleichskurve natürlich auch etwas anders zeichnen, am grundsätzli- chen Ergebnis ändert sich aber wenig. Siehe Beispiel von Moberg e.a. (2005) der sogar eine Darstellung von 0 – 2000 AD veröffentlicht hat

• Das mittelalterliche Klimaoptimum liegt dort geringfügig höher als bei Mann e.a. und auf gleicher Höhe wie der als Referenz benutzte Mittelwert 1961-1990

Klimaänderungen: Langfristperspektive

Jahr

(rel. zu 1961-1990)

Unsicherheit

BQuelle: C.D.Schönwiese (2207):“Der neue wissenschaftliche Sachstandsbereicht des IPCC“; AKE2007F-Vortrag , Folie 15

BQuelle:Schär.“Treibhausgase und Klimaänderung“, Vortrag 2005-11 Nuklearforum Schweiz,

Übersicht über diverse Publikationen:

Fazit: vielfältig, aber nicht grundlegend anders

NordHemisphäre

Modellsimulationen

Mann und Jones, 2003

Rekonstruktionen

Langzeitaspekt: Nordhemisphäre - Temperatur Modellsimulationen

BQuelle:DPG2005_SyKE1.4Schoenwiese_CC-imIndustriezeitalter.ppt

Paleoclimate information supports the interpretation that the warmth of the last half century is unusual in at least the previous 1300 years.

The last time the polar regions were significantly warmer than present for an extended period (about 125,000 years ago, Eem), reductions in polar ice volume led to 4 to 6 metres of sea level rise.

A Paleoclimatic Perspective


The land and oceans have warmed

Quelle: IPCC-COP6a_Bonn2001_WatsonSpeech: Fig 2

SSTLand

Land surface temperatures are rising faster than SSTs


Many regional climate changes can be described in terms of

preferred patterns of climate variability and therefore as

changes in the occurrence of indices

that characterise the strength and phase of these patterns.

Air temperatures preferred patterns

2.311a Klima Oszillationen, Indizes

Patterns (Modes) of Climate Variability

BQuelle: IPCC_AR4wg1_TechnicalSummary: Box TS.2, p.39

A significant component of atmospheric and climatic variability can be described in terms of

fluctuations in the amplitude and sign of indices . The best known of these indices of preferred patterns of variability are::

•El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a coupled fluctuation in the atmosphere and the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with preferred time scales of 2 to about 7 years and global teleconnections. ENSO is often measured by the difference in surface pressure anomalies between Tahiti and Darwin and the SSTs in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

für uns eher „exotisch:• Southern Annular Mode (SAM), the fluctuation of a pattern with low antarctic surface ressure and strong mid-latitude westerlies, analogous to the NAM, but present year round.• Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern, an atmospheric large-scale wave pattern featuring a sequence of tropospheric high and low-pressure anomalies stretching from the subtropical west Pacific to the east coast of North America.• Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), a measure of the SSTs in the North Pacific that has a verystrong correlation with the North Pacific Index (NPI) measure of the depth of the Aleutian Low. However, it has a signature throughout much of the Pacific.

2.311a Klima Oszillationen, Indizes

The frequency, persistence and magnitude of El-Nino events has increased

*As shown by changes in sea-surface temperature (relative to the 1961-1990 average) for the eastern tropical Pacific off Peru

El Niño years

La Niña years


ENSO: AR4 comments:

The 1976–1977 climate shift, related to the phase change in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) towards more El Niño events and changes in the evolution of ENSO,

has affected many areas, including most tropical monsoons.

There is substantial low-frequency atmospheric variability in the Pacific sector over the 20th century,

with extended periods of weakened (1900–1924; 1947– 1976) circulationas well as

periods of strengthened (1925–1946; 1977–2003) circulation. {3.2, 3.5, 3.6}

BQuelle: IPCC_AR4wg1_TechnicalSummary:, p.38

Patterns (Modes) of Climate Variability

BQuelle: IPCC_AR4wg1_TechnicalSummary: Box TS.2, p.39

• North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO),

a measure of the strength of the Icelandic Low and the Azores High, and of the westerly winds between them, mainly in winter.

The NAO has associated fluctuations in the storm track, temperature and precipitation from the North Atlantic into Eurasia.

• Northern Annular Mode (NAM), a winter fluctuation in the amplitude of a pattern characterised by low surface pressure in the Arctic and strong mid-latitude westerlies. The NAM has links with the northern polar vortex and hence the stratosphere.

BQuelle: IPCC_AR4wg1_TechnicalSummary: Box TS.2, Fig. 1; p.39

NAM

NAO

Changes associated with the positive phase of the NAO and NAM : pressure windsprecipitation changes.

Warm coloured areas are warmer than normal

Blue areas are cooler than normal.

Positive phase of NAM and NAO

AR4 zum Nord-Atlantischen Wetter:

• The characteristics of fluctuations in the zonally averaged westerlies in the Northern Hemisphere have more recently been described by their ‘annular mode’, the Northern Annular Mode (NAM).

• The observed changes can be expressed as a shift of the circulation

towards the structure associated with one sign of the preferred pattern.

• Increased mid-latitude westerlies can be largely viewed as reflecting either NAO or NAM changes.

• Multi-decadal variability is also evident in the Atlantic,

both in the atmosphere and the ocean.

Quelle: IPCC_AR4wg1_TechnicalSummary:, p.38

Precipitation patterns have changed:


2.312 Niederschlag

Changes in Precipitation, Increased Drought

• Significantly increased precipitation in eastern parts of North and South America, northern Europe and northern and central Asia.

• The frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased over most land areas - consistent with warming and increases of atmospheric water vapour

• Drying in the Sahel, the Mediterranean, southern Africa and parts of southern Asia.

• More intense and longer droughts observed since the 1970s, particularly in the tropics and subtropics.

Smoothed annual anomalies for precipitation (%) over land from 1900 to 2005; other regions are dominated by variability.

Land precipitation is changing significantly over broad areas

Increases

Decreases

Quelle: IPCC_2001_TAR_TS: Fig 6

Observed change in sea level

Time-series of relative sea level for the past 300 years from Northern Europe: The scale bar indicates ±100 mm. Stockholm, Sweden (detrended over the period 1774 to 1873 to remove to first order the contribution of post-glacial rebound); Liverpool - Data are of “Adjusted Mean High Water” rather than Mean Sea Level and include a nodal (18.6 year) term. [Based on Figure 11.7 of TAR1]

(UK)Stockholm

Liverpool

2.313

Anstieg der Meereshöhe seit dem letzten Glazial

Im 20. Jhd : + 1 bis 2 [mm/a] (aus Pegelmessungen)

Seit dem letzten Glazial:vor 20 [ka], im Maximum des letzten Glazials : Meereshöhe lag 120 m tiefer (abseits von den Vereisungen) danach Anstiegvor 15 - 6 [ka] war die Zeit des stärksten Anstieges: 10 [mm/a] die letzetn 6 [ka]: 0,5 [mm/a]

die letzetn 3 [ka]: 0,3 - 0,5 [mm/a]

Quelle: nach IPCC_2001_TAR_TS: p. 31+32

Einfügen: Abb: Meeresanstieg in den letzten 100 ka

BQuelle: IPCC_AR4wg1_TechnicalSummary: Fig. TS.18, p.49, [Fig 5.13 ]

Annual averages of the global mean sea level since 1870

reconstructed sea level fields since 1870 (red), tide gauge measurements since 1950 (blue) and satellite altimetry since 1992 (black).

a

mmrelative to the average for1961 to 1990

Error bars are 90% confidence intervals.

BQuelle: IPCC_AR4wg1_TechnicalSummary: Table TS3 p.50,

Contributions to sea level rise: Observed and Modelled

1961 - 2003 1993 - 2003

2.314 Gletscher

a

Length (unit: 1km )

Curves have been translated along the vertical axis to make them fit in one frame.

Data are from the World Glacier Monitoring Service (http://www.geo.unizh.ch/wgms/) with some additions from various unpublished sources

Quelle: nach IPCC_2001_TAR1; fig 2.18, p.128

a

The geographical distribution of the data (a single triangle may represent more than one glacier.

A collection of 20glacier length recordsfrom different parts of the world.

http://www.geo.unizh.ch/wgms/





1900 und 2000.

Aufnahme der Pasterzenzunge mit Großglockner (3798 m)Gesellschaft für ökologische Forschung, Wolfgang Zängl,

http://www.gletscherarchiv.de

Gletscher-Schwund in den Alpen

BQuelle:DLR_Schumann200_Klimawandel.ppt

heute___________

2100 AD

Schmelzwasserspenden der Hochgebirge: Verluste bis 2100 AD

UrQuelle:Ghan,SJ und Shippert,T.:“Physically Based Global Downscaling:CC Projections für a full Century, Jornal of Climate 19,No.9.pp1589-1604BQuelle: SD842122_Bis-2100schmilzt-dieHäfte-desHochgebirge-Schnees

Beispiele: Alpenschnee: 61% bleiben übrig in 2100 AD Neuseeland Alpen: 16% ~ ~ Anden: 45% ~ ~

©Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

Schneedecken der Hochgebirge bis 2100 AD:

• Die heutigen Abflussmengen (oben) sind den Prognosen für 2100 gegenüber gestellt.

• Die Schmelzwasserspenden in den Hochgebirge der Erde werden in den kommenden Jahren drastisch schrumpfen.

• Südamerika, Europa, der Westen der USA und Neuseeland sind am stärksten betroffen.

UrQuelle:Ghan,SJ und Shippert,T.:“Physically Based Global Downscaling:CC Projections für a full Century, Jornal of Climate 19,No.9.pp1589-1604BQuelle: SD842122_Bis-2100schmilzt-dieHäfte-desHochgebirge-Schnees

Quelle: The Big Thaw“, National Geographic (2004), Heft 9, p.21;

Arctic Sea Ice Melting since 19792.315 Arktisches Eis


Arctic Sea Ice in 2003


1979:An image based on satellite data shows perennial ice cover in 1979,when the ice extended over the Arctic Ocean from edge to edge.

Since then the area of coverage has decreased by 9% per decade

2003:A similiar image from 2003 shows dramatically reduced perennial ice cover.Large areas of open ocean have appeared near Russia, Alaska and Canada.Some climate models project, that the ice will be gone in summer by the end of the century.

Eindeutiger Trend: Seit Beginn der Satellitenbeobachtung hat die Ausdehnung des Meereises drastisch abgenommen.

©National Snow and Ice Data Center

BQuelle: SpectrumDirekt SD790789 vom 1.10.2005, Bild 2 ; UrQuelle: National Snow and Ice Data Center

Abschmelzen des arktischen Meereises zwischen 1979 und 2005

Eisbedeckung der Arktis

Meereis und LandSchnee im Frühjahr und im Herbst:

Heute

und in 2100 AD

Arktis im September eisfrei Schnee und Eis nur noch im Winter

UrQuelle: MPI-Meteorologie Hamburg 2005, M.Böttinger, Presseerklärung 29.9.2005DKRZ (Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum), Hamburg;erscheint im IPCC-Bericht AR4; BQuelle: http://www.pro-physik.de/Phy/External/PhyH/1,,2-10-0-0-1-display_in_frame-0-0-,00.html?recordId=6973&table=NEWS

Simulation:

2.316 Extreme

Extreme Klimaereignisse

werden immer ausgeprägter

Exzerpt aus Vorträgen von Prof. Schönwiese, Uni Frankfurt

Goto Exkurs: V2.316_KlimaExtreme_Exzerpt-Schoenwiese.ppt

http://V2.316_KlimaExtreme_Exzerpt-Schoenwiese.ppt/

Bemerkung zur Angabe von Todesopfer:

(1) Evidente Todesopfer : Individuum bekannt, Todes-ursache und Kausalität gesichert. (z.B.: Tote durch Ertrinken bei Hochwasser) (2) Statistische Todesopfer: Klare statistische Korrelation zwischen Anzahl der Todesfälle und äußerem Ereignis. (z.B. erhöhte Sterblichkeit bei Hitzewelle )

(3) Hochgerechnete Todesopfer: Extrapolierte Todeszahlen aufgrund von Dosis-Wirkungsbeziehung aus einem anderen Dosis-Bereich. Kein statistischer Nachweis mehr möglich. (z.B.: Tote in der AllgemeinBevölkerung durch kleine Strahlendosen)

N. Atlantic hurricane record best after 1944 with aircraft surveillance.

Global number and percentage of intense hurricanes is increasing

North Atlantic hurricanes have increased with SSTs

SST(1944-2005)

Marked increase after

1994


auch die eher alltäglichen Extremwerte haben sich geändert:

Frequency of occurrence of cold or warm temperatures for 202 global stations for 3 time periods: 1901 to 1950 (black), 1951 to 1978 (blue) and 1979 to 2003 (red).

1979-20031951-19781901-1950

Warm nights are increasing; cold nights decreasing

fewer more fewer more


Some aspects of climate have not been observed to change:

• Tornadoes

• Dust-storms

• Hail

• Lightning

• Antarctic sea ice

Direct Observations of Recent Climate Change


IPCC2001_TAR1_Fig2.39b

Hydrological and Storm-Related Indicators

Probability : *** > 99% ; ** = in [90%, 99%] ; * = in [66%, 90%]; ? in [33%,66%]

2.317 Übersicht

IPCC2001_TAR1_Fig2.39a

Also das Wichtigste:

•The Earth has warmed 0.6± 0.2 [K] since 1860 with the last two decades being the warmest of the last century; •The increase in surface temperatures over the 20th Century for the Northern hemisphere is likely to be greater than that for any other century in the last 1000 years; •Precipitation patterns have changed with an increase in heavy precipitation events in some regions;

•Sea level has risen 10-20 cm since 1900; most non-polar glaciers are retreating; and the extent and thickness of Arctic sea ice is decreasing in summer;

Quelle: IPCC-COP6a_Bonn2001_WatsonSpeech: p 1-Summary

2.32

The Identification of a human Influence on Climate Change

„In the light of new evidence and taking into account the remaining uncertainties, most of the observed warming over the last 50 years is likely to have been due to the increase greenhouse gas concentrations. “

IPCC 2001: TAR_wg1:

E. The Identification of a human Influence on CC E.8 Synopsis

Quelle: IPCC_2001_TAR_TS: p. 61

Feststellung des IPCC:

We look at

Global mean surface temperature anomalies relative to the 1880 to 1920 mean from the instrumental record compared with ensembles of 4 simulations with a coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model.

The thick line shows the instrumental data while the thin lines show the individual model simulations in the ensemble of four members.

Note that the data are annual mean values. The model data are only sampled at the locations where there are observations

Bestätigung durch Modellrechnung:

1. Can natural factors alone explain the recent temperature record?

Quelle: IPCC_2001_TAR_TS:fig 15a-c, p.58;

(a) model forced with solar and volcanic forcing only

“Simulations of the response to natural forcings alone … do not explain the warming in the second half of the century” SPM

Stott et al, Science 2000

{solar and volcanic forcing only}

Quelle: IPCC_2001_TAR_TS:fig 15a, p.58; wg1_2_Mitchell - Vortrag bei COP6 Bonn 2001, Folie 12

2. Can anthropogenic factors alone explain the temperature recent record?

b) model forced with anthropogenic forcingincluding:

• well mixed greenhouse gases,

• changes in stratospheric and tropospheric ozone and the

• direct and indirect effects of sulphate aerosols,

Quelle: IPCC_2001_TAR_TS:fig 15b, p.58

{well mixed GHG + O3 + aerosols}

c) model forced with all forcings,

both natural and anthropogenic.

Both natural and anthropogenic forcings

Quelle: IPCC_2001_TAR_TS:fig 15c, p.58

{solar and volcanic} and {well mixed GHG + O3 + aerosols}

Remarks and details to Figure 15:

•The changes in sulphate aerosol are calculated interactively, and changes in tropospheric ozone were calculated offline using a chemical transport model.• Changes in cloud brightness (the first indirect effect of sulphate aerosols) were calculated by an off line simulation and included in the model.

The changes in stratospheric ozone were based on observations.

The volcanic and solar forcing were based on published combinations of measured and proxy data.

The net anthropogenic forcing at 1990 was 1.0 Wm2 including a net cooling of 1.0 W/m2 due to sulphate aerosols.

The net natural forcing for 1990 relative to 1860 was 0.5 Wm2, and for 1992 was a net cooling of 2.0 Wm2 due to Mount Pinatubo.

Other models forced with anthropogenic forcing give similar results to those shown in (b).

Quelle: IPCC_2001_TAR_TS:fig 15a-c, p.58

Most of the observed warming of the last 50 years is attributable to human activities


also:

Attribution

• are observed changes consistent with

expected responses to forcings

inconsistent with alternative explanations

Observations

All forcing

Solar+volcanic


Understanding and Attributing Climate Change

Continental warming

likely shows a significant anthropogenic contribution over the past 50 years


Fazit:

1. Der Temperaturanstieg der letzten 50 Jahre kann global und regional auf den anthropogenen Einfluss zurückgeführt werden. (heute viel deutlicher als noch beim TAR (2001))

2. Menschlicher Einfluss wird heute (AR4) auch erkennbar in anderen Klimabereichen, u.a.: Erwärmung des Ozans Temperatur - Extrema Windsystemen


2.33 Treibhausgase in der Atmosphäre

.331 CO2 und andere GHG seit der industriellen Revolution

.332 Atmospheric CO2 on different time-scales

.333 Strahlungsantrieb und Global Warming Potential (GWP)

2.33

GHG= Grennhouse Gas

CO2 in der Atmosphäre seit

der industriellen Revolution

2.331

Human activities are increasing

the atmospheric concentrations of:

• greenhouse gases that warm the atmosphere

and, in some regions, of

• sulfate aerosols that cool the atmosphere;

Most of the observed warming of the last 50 years is attributable to human activities

http://cdiac.esd.ORNL.gov/trends/co2/graphics/Sio-mlgr.gif aktuelle Adresse: next side

Berichtsstand:Ende 2000update vom 2001_0813

http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/co2/sio-mlo.htm

http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/co2/graphics/mlo145e_thrudc04.pdf

Berichtsstand:Mitte 2005update vom 2006_0130

******************************************************************* *** Atmospheric CO2 concentrations (ppmv) derived from in situ *** *** air samples collected at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii *** *** *** *** Source: C.D. Keeling *** *** T.P. Whorf, and the Carbon Dioxide Research Group *** *** Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO) *** *** University of California *** *** La Jolla, California USA 92093-0444 *** *** *** *** May 2005 *** *** *** *******************************************************************

Monthly values are expressed in parts per million (ppm) and reported in the 2003A SIO manometric mole fraction scale. The monthly values have been adjusted to the 15th of each month. Missing values are denoted by -99.99. The "annual" average is the arithmetic mean of the twelve monthly values. In years with one or two missing monthly values, annual values were calculated by substituting a fit value (4-harmonics with gain factor and spline) for that month and then averaging the twelve monthly values.

Quelle: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/trends/co2/maunaloa.co2

Originaldaten aus Mauna Loa – jedermann kann mit ihnen rechnen

Year Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Annual Annual-Fit

1958 -99.99 -99.99 315.71 317.45 317.50 -99.99 315.86 314.93 313.19 -99.99 313.34 314.67 -99.99 -99.99 1959 315.58 316.47 316.65 317.71 318.29 318.16 316.55 314.80 313.84 313.34 314.81 315.59 315.98 316.00

1960 316.43 316.97 317.58 319.03 320.03 319.59 318.18 315.91 314.16 313.83 315.00 316.19 316.91 316.911961 316.89 317.70 318.54 319.48 320.58 319.78 318.58 316.79 314.99 315.31 316.10 317.01 317.65 317.63 1962 317.94 318.56 319.69 320.58 321.01 320.61 319.61 317.40 316.26 315.42 316.69 317.69 318.45 318.461963 318.74 319.08 319.86 321.39 322.24 321.47 319.74 317.77 316.21 315.99 317.07 318.36 318.99 319.02 1964 319.57 -99.99 -99.99 -99.99 322.23 321.89 320.44 318.70 316.70 316.87 317.68 318.71 -99.99 319.52 1965 319.44 320.44 320.89 322.13 322.16 321.87 321.21 318.87 317.81 317.30 318.87 319.42 320.03 320.09

2000 369.14 369.46 370.52 371.66 371.82 371.70 370.12 368.12 366.62 366.73 368.29 369.53 369.48 369.47 2001 370.28 371.50 372.12 372.87 374.02 373.30 371.62 369.55 367.96 368.09 369.68 371.24 371.02 371.04 2002 372.43 373.09 373.52 374.86 375.55 375.40 374.02 371.49 370.71 370.24 372.08 373.78 373.10 373.08 2003 374.68 375.63 376.11 377.65 378.35 378.13 376.62 374.50 372.99 373.00 374.35 375.70 375.64 375.612004 376.79 377.37 378.41 380.52 380.63 379.57 377.79 375.86 374.06 374.24 375.86 377.48 377.38 377.43

1980 338.01 338.36 340.08 340.77 341.46 341.17 339.56 337.60 335.88 336.01 337.10 338.21 338.69 338.671981 339.23 340.47 341.38 342.51 342.91 342.25 340.49 338.43 336.69 336.85 338.36 339.61 339.93 339.951982 340.75 341.61 342.70 343.56 344.13 343.35 342.06 339.82 337.97 337.86 339.26 340.49 341.13 341.09 1983 341.37 342.52 343.10 344.94 345.75 345.32 343.99 342.39 339.86 339.99 341.16 342.99 342.78 342.751984 343.70 344.51 345.28 347.08 347.43 346.79 345.40 343.28 341.07 341.35 342.98 344.22 344.42 344.441985 344.97 346.00 347.43 348.35 348.93 348.25 346.56 344.69 343.09 342.80 344.24 345.56 345.90 345.86

Originaldaten aus Mauna Loa Quelle: http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/trends/co2/maunaloa.co2

http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/trends.htm

2007.0606:aktualisierte Quelle:

aber leider immer noch die alten Daten.

Wer findet aktuellere Daten?Siehe nächste Seite! Danke Herr Becker.

http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/trends.htm

Aktualisierte (2007-06) Links:hp of Mauna loa Observatory: http://www.mlo.noaa.gov/home.html

Aktuelle CO2 Daten: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/

http://www.mlo.noaa.gov/home.html

http://www.mlo.noaa.gov/home.html

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/

Alan RobockDepartment of Environmental Sciences

BQuelle: A.Robock:Lecture: „Volcanic Eruptions and Climate“, 2005, Folio95


BQuelle: A.Robock: Vorlesung:“ Volcanic Eruptions and Climate“, 2005, Folie96


Principal investigator: Thomas Conway, NOAA CMDLhttp://www.cmdl.noaa.gov/ccgg

BQuelle: A.Robock: ,Lecture: „Volcanic Eruptions and Climate“, 2005, Folio97


- Changes in emissions- Land use changes- Unusual atmospheric temperatures or

precipitation (e.g., drought)- El Niño and La Niña episodes- Volcanic eruptions through effects on diffuse

radiation

Possible causes of interannual CO2 variations

Quelle: A.Robock:“ Volcanic Eruptions and Climate“, 2005, Folio98

Wo bleibt das in die

Atmosphäre emittierte fossile CO2 ?

• Es gibt: große C-Speicher und große natürliche jährliche Flüsse (150 Gt /a C)

• Die zusätzliche Emission des fossilen CO2 (ca. 7 Gt C/a ) ist nur ein kleiner Teil des gesamten KohlenstoffKreislaufes.

2.331a

Globaler Kohlenstoffkreislauf in Gt C bzw. Gt C/Jahr

100 Stratosphäre 2-15 J

650 Troposphäre 1-10 J

1000 Mischungsschicht 1-10 J

38 000 „tiefer“ Ozean > 1000 J

600 Landvegetation 0,5-50 J

1600 tote Biomasse 200-400 J

20 000 000 Sedimente 106-109 J

davon: 3500 Kohle 300 Erdöl 200 Erdgas

Biosphäre Ozean

Atmosphäre

Pedosphäre/ Lithosphäre

Vulkanismus< 0,05

Verwitterung0,4

9060

fossile Brennstoffe

Waldrodung 1,5?

6

<1?

Bodenemission

2-30,5?

2??

IPCC 2001 u.v.a., hier nach Schönwiese, 2003;

*

* 2004: 7,5 Gt C entspr. 27,5 Gt CO2 BQuelle: C.D.Schönwiese: 2006-01, Frankfurt/M; Folie 28

Bilanz nach

200 Jahren CO2 Emission

durch den Menschen :

Carbon emissions and uptakes since 1800 (Gt C)

180

110

115

265

140Land use change

Fossil emissions

Atmosphere

Oceans

Terrestrial

Quelle: IPCC-COP6a_Bonn2001_wg1_3_Watson

Wo bleibt das CO2

letzendlich :

Atmosphäre Ozean

Quelle: IPCC 2005: SRCCS: Fig.6.2, p.280. (SRCSS= SpecialReport on CO2 Capture and Storage)

Atmosphärisches CO2 nach verschiedenen Emissionswegen

2050_GesamtEmission: 18 Tt CO2 !!

Figure 6.2. Simulated atmospheric CO2 resulting from CO2 release to the atmosphere or injection into the ocean at 3,000 m depth (Kheshgi and Archer, 2004).

Emissions follow a logistic trajectory with cumulative emissions of 18,000 GtCO2. (sehr viel !!)

Illustrative cases include 100% of emissions released to the atmosphere leading to a peak in concentration, 100% of emissions injected into the ocean, and 0% no emissions (i.e., other mitigation approaches are used).

Additional cases include atmospheric emission to year 2050, followed by either (after 2050) 50% to atmosphere and 50% to ocean after 2050, or , 50% to atmosphere and 50% by other mitigation approaches after 2050.

Fazit:Ocean injection results in lower peak concentrations than atmospheric release but higher than if other mitigation approaches are used (e.g., renewables or permanent storage).

Quelle: IPCC 2005: SRCCS: Fig.6.2, p.280. (Bildunterschrift)

Quelle: IPCC_2001_TAR_TSFig.10a-d, p.40

Atmospheric CO2 on different time-scales

Recent atmospheric masurements(Mauna Loa) are shown forcomparison.. (a) Direct measurements

of atmospheric CO2.

(b) CO2 concentration in Antarctic ice cores for the past millenium.

..Variations in atmospheric CO2 concentration on different time-scales..

(c) CO2 concentration in the Taylor Dome Antarctic ice core.

(e) Geochemically inferred CO2 concentrations.

(d) CO2 concentration in the Vostok Antarctic ice core.

Different colours represent results from different studies.

2.332

Quelle: IPCC_2001_TAR_TSFig.10 f, p.40

The last 0.5 [Ga] : Geochemically inferred atmospheric CO2

(Coloured bars represent different published studies)

GHG, Radiative Forcing and GWP

• Treibhausgase (GHG) als Indikatoren von menschliche Aktivitäten

• Beschreibung ihrer direkten Wirkung : Strahlungsantrieb (Radiative Forcing)

• „Normierung“ ihrer Wirkung über die Zeit durch Vergleich mit CO2 Global Warmimg Potential (GWP)

2.343

Concentration of Carbon Dioxide and Methane Have Risen Greatly Since Pre-Industrial Times

Carbon dioxide: 33% rise Methane: 100% rise

The MetOffice. Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research.

BW 5

Quelle: IPCC-COP6a_Bonn2001_wg1_1_Houghton

ppb

flask = Flasche

Indicators of the Human Influenceon the Atmosphere during the Industrial Era

Quelle: IPCC-COP6a_Bonn2001_wg1_3_Watson

Radiative forcing [ W/m2 ] is

the change in the balance between radiation coming into the atmosphere and radiation going out.

Der Strahlungsantrieb : „radiative forcing“

A positive radiative forcing tends on average to warm the surface of the Earth, and negative forcing tends on average to cool the surface.

A process that alters the energy balance of the Earth - atmosphere system is known as a radiative forcing mechanism (1. IPCC-Report (1990), p. 41-68).

Radiative forcing :Radiative forcing is the change in the net , downward minus upward, irradiance (in W m–2) at the tropopause ,due to a change in an external driver of climate change, such as, for example, a change in the concentration of CO2 or the output of the Sun.

Radiative forcing is computed with all tropospheric properties held fixed at their unperturbed values,and after allowing for stratospheric temperatures, if perturbed, to readjust to radiative-dynamical equilibrium.

Radiative forcing is called instantaneous if no change in stratospheric temperature is accounted for.

For the purposes of this report, radiative forcing is further defined as the change relative to the year 1750 and, unless otherwise noted, refers to a global and annual average value.

Radiative forcing is not to be confused with cloud radiative forcing, a similar terminology for describing an unrelated measure of the impact of clouds on the irradiance at the top of the atmosphere.

Quelle: AR4-wg1, Final Report- Glossary, p.951

Energy balance The difference between the total incoming and total outgoing energy. If this balance is positive, warming occurs; if it is negative, cooling occurs. Averaged over the globe and over long time periods, this balance must be zero.

Because the climate system derives virtually all its energy from the Sun, zero balance implies that, globally, the amount of incoming solar radiation onaverage must be equal to the sum of the outgoing reflected solar radiation and the outgoing thermal infrared radiation emitted by the climate system.

A perturbation of this global radiation balance, be it anthropogenic or natural, is called radiative forcing.

External forcing External forcing refers to a forcing agent outside the climate system causing a change in the climate system. External forcings are: Volcanic eruptions, solar variations and anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere and land use change

Quelle: AR4-wg1, Final Report- Glossary,

IPCC2001_TAR1_Fig1.2

Balance:radiation coming in : solar input = 342 [W/m^2 radiation going out. : 107 (reflected solar) + 235(i.r.) = 342 [W/m^2]

in: 342 out: 107 out: 235

SPM 3

Quelle: IPCC-COP6a_Bonn2001_wg1_1_Houghton

Stand TAR, (2001):

Aktueller Stand AR4, (2007):

Zeitliche Entwicklung 1880-2000 der GHG‘s und sonstiger Strahlungsantriebe

Wer ist schuld am Treibhauseffekt ?

BQuelle: VGB-Beising (2006): Klimawandel und Energiewirtschaft-Literaturrecherche, p.115, Abb. 8.15 A

Die Klimaantriebe in ihrer zeitlichen Entwicklung

__solar

all GHG__

_Aerosol

Aerosol in Stratosphere)__

Modellrechnungen des Goddard-Instituts für den Zeitraum 1880 - 2003 (Hansen 2005a) mit den (A) in den Klimasimulationen verwendeten Klimaantrieben (forcings) und die (B) mit dem GISS Modell simulierte und beobachtete Temperaturänderung

Modellrechnungen mit Klimaantrieben (forcings) und resultierenden Temperaturänderung

für den Zeitraum 1880 - 2003

BQuelle: VGB-Beising (2006): Klimawandel und Energiewirtschaft-Literaturrecherche, p.115, Abb. 8.15

Global Warming Potential (GWP)

Quelle:ORNL_OakRidge2002_Current_GHG..htm

The GWP is typically used to contrast different greenhouse gases relative to CO2. The GWP provides a simple measure of the relative radi- iative effects of the emissionsof various greenhouse gases. GWP is calculated using the formula: where:ai = the instantaneous radiative forcing due to a unit increase in the concentration of trace gas i.ci = concentration of the trace gas i, remaining at time t after after its release. n = the number of years over which the calculation is performed.

ai * ci(t) dt

aCO2 * cCO2(t) dt

Updated September 2001Pre-industrialconcentration

(1860)

Presenttropospheric

concentration1

GWP2 (100yr. timehorizon)

Atmosphericlifetime(years)3

carbon dioxide (CO2)(ppm) 2884 369.45 1 120

methane (CH4) (ppb) 8486 18397/ 17268 23 12

nitrous oxide (N2O) (ppb) 2859 3157/ 3148 296 114CFC-11(trichlorofluoromethane)(CCl3F) (ppt)

zero 2637/ 2608 3,800 50

CFC-12(dichlorodifluoromethane)(CF2Cl2) (ppt)

zero 5447/ 5378 8,100 102

CFC-113(trichlorotrifluoroethane)(C2F3Cl3) (ppt)

zero 827/ 828 4,800 85

carbon tetrachloride(CCl4) (ppt) zero 987/ 968 1,400 42

methyl chloroform(CH3CCl3) (ppt) zero 567/ 548 36010 5

HCFC-22(chlorodifluoromethane)(CHClF2) (ppt)

zero 152.5/13411 1,500 12

sulphur hexafluoride (SF6)(ppt) zero 4.012 22,200 3,200

trifluoromethyl sulphurpentafluoride (SF5CF3)(ppt)

zero 0.12 13 ~18,00014 ~1,00014

fluoroform (CHF3, HFC-23) (ppt) zero 1115 12,000 260

perfluoroethane (C2F6)(ppt) zero 416 11,900 10,000

surface ozone (ppb) 2517 2418/ 2919 20 hours

Quelle: OakRidge NatLabhttp://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/pns/current_ghg.html

mit Links zu Datenmaterial

Current GHG Concentrations

Quelle:ORNL_OakRidge2002_Current_GHG..htm

2.34 Modelle

2.341 Ein einfaches Energiebilanz Modell (EBM)

2.342 Komplexere Modele

2.34

GHG= Greenhouse Gas

Fortsetzung in Datei V2.34_Klimawandel2

Weitere Quellen und hervorragende Darstellungen

Globaler und regionaler Klimawandel

Christian-D. Schönwiese Universität Frankfurt/Main

Institut für Atmosphäre und Umwelthttp://www.geo.uni-frankfurt.de/iau/klima

© ESA/EUMETSAT: METEOSAT 8 SG – multi channel artificial composite colour image, 23-5-2003, 12:15 UTC

http://web.uni-frankfurt.de/IMGF/meteor/klima/Sw-fh-frankfurt-2006.ppt

Schönwiese_CC_Vortrag_FH-frankfurt-2006.ppt

http://www.geo.uni-frankfurt.de/iau/klima






http://web.uni-frankfurt.de/IMGF/meteor/klima/Sw-fh-frankfurt-2006.ppt



Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey USA

Volcanic Eruptionsand Climate

[email protected]://envsci.rutgers.edu/

~robock

version 1.3Quelle: A.Robock:Lecture: Volcanic Eruptions and Climate, 2005, Folie1

2.3 klimawandel durch treibhauseffekt.31 das klima der erde hat sich geändert.311 temperatur.311a...

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