The 3rd International Seville Conference on Future-

Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)

Impacts and implications for policy and decision making

Sandy Thomas

Foresight, Government Office for Science

FTA 2008

21st century challenges need enduring solutions

• Population

• Water resource and food production

• Energy security and supply

• Health and disease

• Environment and climate change

• Conflict and terrorism

• Sustainability

FTA 2008

Foresight Technology Assessment

helping governments to think systematically about the future so that it can develop robust policies for the 21st century

By:

•Understanding what types of futures might be possible

•Challenging presumptions

•Building a more robust approach to the future

FTA 2008

Foresight…

UK approach:

• Encompassed by FTA methods in 2003 paper

• Methods and Tools Contributing to FTA

• The Use and Impact of FTA for Policy and Decision Making

• FTA in Research and Innovation

• FTA in Security and Sustainability

FTA 2008

Foresight achieves this in 3 ways:

1. Foresight Projects: in depth studies looking at big issues 20-100 years in the future

2. Foresight Horizon Scanning Projects: smaller projects looking at more discrete issues across the entire spectrum of public policy futures 10-15 years in the future

3. Foresight Toolkits and Networks: look to build futures thinking and share best practice within and across government

FTA 2008

Previous projects

Brain Science, Addiction and

Drugs

Detection and Identification of

Infectious Diseases

Intelligent Infrastructure

Systems

Tackling Obesities:

Future Choices

CognitiveSystems

Flood and Coastal Defence

Cyber Trust and Crime Prevention

Exploiting the Electromagnetic

Spectrum

SustainableEnergy and the

Built Environment

Mental Capital and Wellbeing

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Who is involved?

GCSA

Coreexperts

Foresightteam

Ministerial/High LevelStakeholder

Group

Internationalcontributors

ExpertAdvisoryGroup

Stakeholders eg NGOs, RCs

Scientific &Engineering

Experts

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Typical project structure

Analysis and

Implica-tions

for policy

Underpinning review of evidence base

Systems mapping

Scenario development

Qualitative modelling of policy response

impact

Development of quantitative model and analysis

ActionScoping

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Why a project on obesity?

Source: IOTF

1994-96 1997-99 2000-02

Male

Female Data shown for England and Scotland

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Reviewing the evidence base

• Epidemiology

• Basic biological processes

• The eating process

• Obesity determinants

• Behaviour change

• Activity environment

• Intervention strategies for prevention & treatment

• Lessons learned

• Policy & economic context

• Social & cultural context

• International context

• Ethics

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Numbers of obese overtake healthy weight around 2016

Data source: HSE

Obese

Healthy

2007 205050%

Quantitative analysis (Adult females)

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Systems map

Societal influencesIndividual psychology

Biology

Activity environment

Individual activityFood

ConsumptionFood Production

7 major sub-systems

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ValuesIndividual Social

RESPONSES

anticipation and preparation for change

react when the need to change is critical, focus on mitigation of impact.

Scenario 1

Scenario 3

Scenario 2

Scenario 4

Scenario DevelopmentKey uncertainty 1: Societal valuesKey uncertainty 2: How we respond to challenges

FTA 2008Response Options SC1 SC2 SC3 SC4

BUILT ENVIRONMENT & TRANSPORT

Health planning criteria in all procedures

Improve perceptions of safety

Increase walkability and cyclability

HEALTH

Targeted interventions

Population interventions

Focus on consequences

RESEARCH

Invest in post-hoc solution

Evaluation toolkits

FISCAL

Tax obesity promoting food

All organisations responsible for employee health

Individually targeted fiscal measures

EDUCATION

Food literacy and skills programmes

REGULATION

Control food exposure

SOCIAL STRUCTURE

Directive approach to changing cultural norm

Technology to support individual choice

FAMILY

Early life intervention

Penalise parents for unhealthy children

Impact on future obesity

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Technology roadmapping: Point-of-care diagnostics

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Impact - typical project outputs

• Comprehensive evidence base

• Visions of possible futures

• Implications for policy

• Follow up to achieve action

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UK impacts

Flooding project

• Examined future flood risks and how Government should respond. Annual costs of £20 billion 2080

Impacts:

• HMT increased the annual budget for flood defence by c.£300m; The approach has now been adopted internationally to assess long term flood risks.

FTA 2008

• Revised obesity target to reflect a broader ambition to achieve and maintain a healthy weight

• Established dedicated Obesity Unit within government reporting to a cross-departmental Ministerial Group and Cabinet Committee

• Obesity Unit supported by external Expert Advisory Group, Obesity Observatory and a Delivery Group

• Plans to establish a National Partnership with stakeholders

• Cross-government obesity strategy - Healthy Weight, Healthy Lives informed by the Foresight report

The government response to obesity:

FTA 2008

Impact

Influencing government policy:

• Improving the robustness of existing policies by acting as a stimulating challenge: UK Futures: Society & Economy 2030 (work in progress)

Influencing research agendas:

• Investment in research, technology and systems development for detection of infectious diseases: Detection and Identification of Infectious Diseases

• Cognitive Sciences Research Programme

FTA 2008

Global impacts

Infectious Diseases project

• Analysed how the threat from diseases will change in the future and how to respond. Strategic links

Impacts

• On the Russian G8 summit Declaration on Infectious Diseases

• TSB £55M for diagnostics

• Southern African research network; African Union

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Global impacts

EU

•Nutrition Platform

•European Centre for Disease Control

•Networking eg EFMN

China - Taihu Basin flooding project

Canadian Animal Health Strategy

US Centre for Disease Control and Prevention

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Impact

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Current projects

• Mental Capital and Wellbeing (MCW)

• Sustainable Energy Management and the Built Environment (SEMBE)- Sustainability, Security

• Land Use Futures (LUF) - Sustainability

• Future of Food and Farming - Sustainability

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The principal stages of the Foresight Mental Capital and Wellbeing Project

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Horizon scanning is…

Beyond a ‘single expected future’

to a ‘range of possible futures’ to consider implications for today’s decisions

Looking ahead – beyond usual timescales

Looking across – beyond usual sources

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Evidential tools for HSC

Delta Scan:cutting-edge S&T

perspectives

www.deltascan.org

Sigma Scan:synthesis of

global futures work

www.sigmascan.org

Outsights / Ipsos

MO

RI

Inst

itute

for

the

Fut

ure

FTA 2008

Current HSC projects

• International Futures Project

• UK Futures: Society & economy 2030

• Future of Families 2030

• Future of Communities

• Wider Implications of Science and Technology (WIST)

• Future of Local Services to the Public

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Challenges

•Achieving impact

•Focus on long term

•FTA Methodologies

•More social science

•Sharing best practice

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Conclusion

• Foresight increasingly accepted in policy making

• Foresight is respected for its strategic impact on policy, through evidence based, peer reviewed analysis

• A key role in helping government think beyond the short term to identify enduring solutions

FTA 2008

Foresight website

More information about Foresight can be found at:

www.foresight.gov.uk