21-9-20151 the impact of the aviation sector on climate change – a multicriteria analysis of...
TRANSCRIPT
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THE IMPACT OF THE AVIATION SECTOR ON CLIMATE CHANGE – A MULTICRITERIA ANALYSIS OF POSSSIBLE
POLICY MEASURES
Annalia Bernardini, Cathy Macharis
Department MOSI - Transport and Logistics
XII Scientific Meeting of the Italian Society of Transport Economics (SIET) Rome, 17-18 June 2010
Image source: www.london-lutoninthecommunity.co.uk/environment/
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Overview
1. The Aviation and the Belgian Climate Policy Project (ABC) and Multicriteria Analysis (MCA)
2. MCA-PROMETHEE method
3. PROMETHEE D-Sight software applied to ABC project
4. Conclusion
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Climate system elements
Image source: The U.S. Climate Change Science Program Vision for the Program and Highlights of the Scientific Strategic Plan; A Report by the Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research (July, 2003), modified by MOSI-T
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1. The ABC project and MCA
ABC
Policy options groups:
Technology R&D investments Operational efficiencies/Infrastructures Market based measures
MCA
Provides a framework to evaluate the effectiveness of those climate policy options (alternatives) through a set of criteria:
Climate performance Feasibility Large scale implementation Socio-economic impact
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2. MCA-PROMETHEE method
definition of the problems/goals to be achieved
identification of the criteria
prioritization of the alternatives
MCA
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2. MCA-PROMETHEE method
PROMETHEE & GAIA, developed by Prof. J.P. Brans and Prof. B. Mareschal at the (U.L.B. and V.U.B., 1983), Prof. C. Macharis, Prof. J.P. Brans and Prof. B. Mareschal, PROMETHEE GDSS, (1998)
PROMETHEE
allows the user to directly exploit the data (alternatives an, criteria fk) of the problem in a simple evolutive multicriteria table (Performance Matrix)
extensive sensitivity analyses as well as visual representations (GAIA) of the data are available to the decision-maker
particularly userfriendly software D-Sight, used for the ABC Impacts policy options assessment
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3. PROMETHEE D-Sight software applied to ABC project
Goal
Policy options to reduce the total aviation climate impact
Criteria Alternatives
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3. PROMETHEE D-Sight software applied to ABC project
The ABC consortium expert assessment of all the alternatives on all the criteria
Performance Matrix with high scores
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3. PROMETHEE D-Sight software applied to ABC project
PROMETHEE I
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3. PROMETHEE D-Sight software applied to ABC project
PROMETHEE II
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3. PROMETHEE D-Sight software applied to ABC project
Walking Weights
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4. Conclusion
ABC Impacts project second phase. Ranking of the policy measures is still under discussion within the ABC research consortium
ABC Stakeholders feedback assessment to determine the respective criteria weights
By applying a MCA it is possible to some extent to delineate an appropriate platform for future climate policy options compromises
D-Sight software application has shown to be a valuable tool related to a complex decision problem on behalf of sustainable transport policy support
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Thank you for your attention
More ABC details and information available on:
http://www.climate.be/abcihttp://www.vub.ac.be/MOSI-T