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2020 Election Toolbox A guide to the 2020 presidential, congressional, and gubernatorial elections October 8, 2019 Producer National Journal Presentation Center

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Page 1: 2020 Election Toolbox - Clark Hill PLC · Note: Social media counts are sourced from campaign social media accounts for contenders that also have official House or Senate accounts

2020 Election Toolbox

A guide to the 2020 presidential, congressional, and gubernatorial elections

October 8, 2019

Producer National Journal Presentation Center

Page 2: 2020 Election Toolbox - Clark Hill PLC · Note: Social media counts are sourced from campaign social media accounts for contenders that also have official House or Senate accounts

Roadmap

Presidential election

Congressional elections

Congressional fundraising

Gubernatorial elections

Page 3: 2020 Election Toolbox - Clark Hill PLC · Note: Social media counts are sourced from campaign social media accounts for contenders that also have official House or Senate accounts

2016 election

outcome

Clinton EC votes, 222

MN10

PA20

MI16

NC15

FL29

AZ11

GA16

Trump EC votes, 189WI10

3

Potential 2020 electoral college scenarios based on performance in swing states

Alice Johnson | Slide last updated on: May 28, 2019

2% shift

towards Clinton

in swing states

Clinton EC votes, 222

MN10

PA20

MI16

NC15

FL29

AZ11

GA16

Trump EC votes, 189WI10

4% shift

towards Clinton

in swing states

Clinton EC votes, 222

MN10

PA20

MI16

NC15

FL29

AZ11

GA16

Trump EC votes, 189WI10

*North Carolina did not have a Senate election in 2018

Sources: Swing states based on Cook Political Report rankings270 Electoral College votes needed to win

2018 Senate race

outcomes in swing

states

Clinton EC votes, 222

MN10

PA20

MI16

NC*15

FL29

AZ11

GA16

Trump EC votes, 189WI10

Page 4: 2020 Election Toolbox - Clark Hill PLC · Note: Social media counts are sourced from campaign social media accounts for contenders that also have official House or Senate accounts

4

Key trends to watch in 2020 elections

Zachary Goldstein | Slide last updated on: August 13, 2019

Sources: US News & World Report, Migration Policy Institute, New York Times, Vox.

Clinton EC votes with Texas, 270MN10

PA20

MI16

NC15

FL29

AZ11

GA16

Trump EC votes w/out Texas, 268WI10

270 Electoral College votes needed to win

TX38

President Trump’s approval rating remains strong in solidly Republican states• In estimates based on 2018 midterm exit polls and results, President Trump received strong approval ratings in solidly

red states and majority support in key states such as Georgia (51.0%), Texas (50.7%), and Florida (50.2%)• However, Trump had lower levels of support in swing states such as Pennsylvania (46.7%) and Michigan (45.9%)

Suburban districts may play an important role in 2020 elections• Many suburban districts flipped from red to blue in the 2018 congressional midterm elections: of the 69 suburban

districts held by Republicans before the midterms, 37 voted for the Democratic House candidate• These suburban voters could play a significant role in both the 2020 presidential election and 2020 congressional races

Changing demographics in key states could make them more competitive• Metropolitan areas in Texas are projected to double in population from 2010 to 2050• Texas experienced the largest absolute growth in immigrant population of any state from 2000 to 2017• If Clinton won Texas, she would have reached the 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidential election

Page 5: 2020 Election Toolbox - Clark Hill PLC · Note: Social media counts are sourced from campaign social media accounts for contenders that also have official House or Senate accounts

JoeBiden

ElizabethWarren

BernieSanders

KamalaHarris

Pete Buttigieg

CoryBooker

AmyKlobuchar

AndrewYang

JulianCastro

Beto O’Rourke

Wayne Messam

MarianneWilliamson

TomSteyer

JohnDelaney

Joe Sestak

TulsiGabbard

TimRyan

SteveBullock

Michael Bennet

Billde Blasio(dropped out)

KirstenGillibrand(dropped out)

SethMoulton(dropped out)

Jay Inslee(droppedout)

JohnHickenlooper(dropped out)

EricSwalwell (dropped out)

DonaldTrump

BillWeld

Joe Walsh

MarkSanford

2020 candidates for US president

Slide last updated on: September 20, 2019

Page 6: 2020 Election Toolbox - Clark Hill PLC · Note: Social media counts are sourced from campaign social media accounts for contenders that also have official House or Senate accounts

6

Six Democratic primary candidates have dropped their 2020 presidential bid

2016 and 2020 presidential primary dropout timeline

AS OF SEPTEMBER 20, 2019

6

Sources: Ballotpedia, Fortune, CNN.

August Gebhard-Koenigstein| Slide last updated on: September 20, 2019

Indicates a primary debate Indicates the New Hampshire (first line) and Iowa (second line) caucuses

Page 7: 2020 Election Toolbox - Clark Hill PLC · Note: Social media counts are sourced from campaign social media accounts for contenders that also have official House or Senate accounts

7

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) have raised the most so far in the Democratic primary

46.3

35.7

32.3

26.325.1

22.0

14.913.6

12.7 12.5

6.15.3 5.3

4.1 3.5

19.1

15.9

9.7

18.9

11.8 11.1

6.7

8.7

6.07.1

3.6 4.1 4.43.0

1.3

Sources: FEC

Total receipts at the end Q2 (June 30, 2019)

■ Total receipts ■ Total disbursements

Alice Johnson | Slide last updated on: July 23, 2019

IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS

Page 8: 2020 Election Toolbox - Clark Hill PLC · Note: Social media counts are sourced from campaign social media accounts for contenders that also have official House or Senate accounts

8

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) had the most cash on hand of the Democratic field at the end of Q2

27.27

22.67

19.78

13.27

10.90

8.247.44

6.71

5.36 5.24

2.44 2.191.49 1.19 1.14

Sources: FEC

Total cash on hand at the end Q2 (June 30, 2019)

Zachary Goldstein | Slide last updated on: July 23, 2019

IN MILLIONS OF DOLLARS

Page 9: 2020 Election Toolbox - Clark Hill PLC · Note: Social media counts are sourced from campaign social media accounts for contenders that also have official House or Senate accounts

16 16

11

8

3

5

2 21

2

5

1

1

1

1

1

3

1

1

1

2

5

1

11

2

Biden Harris Booker Warren Klobuchar O'Rourke Sanders Castro Buttigieg Delaney Bullock

9

Joe Biden and Kamala Harris lead the pack of Democratic contenders in number of endorsements

Alice Johnson | Slide last updated on: October 1, 2019

Sources: FiveThirtyEight

■ Representative endorsement ■ Senator endorsement ■ Governor endorsement ■ Mayor endorsement

Endorsements for declared Democratic candidates

Page 10: 2020 Election Toolbox - Clark Hill PLC · Note: Social media counts are sourced from campaign social media accounts for contenders that also have official House or Senate accounts

Note: Social media counts are sourced from campaign social media accounts for contenders that also have official House or Senate accounts

Sources: National Journal Research, 2019

Bernie Sanders currently has the largest social media following of any declared presidential candidate besides Trump

10

Current as of October 8, 2019

■ Facebook likes ■ Twitter followers ■ Instagram followers

Alice Johnson | Slide last updated on: October 8, 2019

0

2,000,000

4,000,000

6,000,000

8,000,000

10,000,000

12,000,000

14,000,000

16,000,000

18,000,000

20,000,000 Donald TrumpFacebook likes: 24.5 millionTwitter followers: 65.4 millionInstagram followers: 14.9 million

Page 11: 2020 Election Toolbox - Clark Hill PLC · Note: Social media counts are sourced from campaign social media accounts for contenders that also have official House or Senate accounts

Ashley Thieme | Slide last updated on: August 15, 2019

Sources: New York Times

11

14 states will hold their primary elections on Super TuesdayPreliminary 2020 primary schedule

■ Primary for both parties ■ Democratic primary ■ Republican Primary

February

1 2 3 4

5 6 7 8 9 10 11

12 13 14 15 16 17 18

19 20 21 22 23 24 25

26 27 28 29 30

March April

May June

1

2 3 4 5 6 7 8

9 10 11 12 13 14 15

16 17 18 19 20 21 22

23 24 25 26 27 28 29

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

8 9 10 11 12 13 14

15 16 17 18 19 20 21

22 23 24 25 26 27 28

29 30 31

1 2

3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10 11 12 13 14 15 16

17 18 19 20 21 22 23

24 25 26 27 28 29 30

31

1 2 3 4 5 6

7 8 9 10 11 12 13

14 15 16 17 18 19 20

21 22 23 24 25 26 27

28 29 30

Feb. 3: IA caucusFeb. 11: NHFeb. 15: SC (R)Feb. 22: NV caucus (D)Feb. 25: NV caucus (R)Feb. 29: SC (D)

March 3: Super Tuesday (AL, AK (R), AR, CA, CO, GA, MA, MN, NC, OK, TN, TX, UT, VT, VA, American Samoa caucus (D), Democrats Abroad) March 7: KS caucus (R), KY caucus (R), LA,ME caucus (R)March 8: ME caucus (D), Puerto Rico (R)March 10: HI caucus (R), ID, MI, MS, MO, ND caucus (D), OH, WA

March 12: Virgin Islands caucus (R)March 14: DC (R), Guam caucus (R), Northern Marianas (D), WY (R)March 17: AZ, FL, IL, Northern Marianas (R)March 24: American Samoa caucus (R)

April 3-5: ND (R)April 4: AK (D), HI (D)April 7: WIApril 21: NY (R)April 28: CT, DE, MD, NY (D), PA, RI

May 2: KS (D), Guam caucus (D)May 5: INMay 12: NE, WVMay 19: KY (D), OR

June 2: MT, NJ, NM, SDJune 6: Virgin Islands caucus (D) June 7: Puerto Rico (D)June 16: DC (D)Not yet scheduled: WY caucus (D)

Democratic National Convention: July 13-16

Republican National Convention: August 24-27

Conventions

Page 12: 2020 Election Toolbox - Clark Hill PLC · Note: Social media counts are sourced from campaign social media accounts for contenders that also have official House or Senate accounts

Other declared candidates, as of October 7, 2019

Candidate% voters' first

choice

Tulsi Gabbard 3

Andrew Yang 3

Beto O’Rourke 2

Michael Bennet 1

Steve Bullock 1

John Delaney 1

Amy Klobuchar 1

Tim Ryan 1

Julián Castro 0

Marianne Williamson 0

Someone else 1

3333

21

11

10

18

30

5

2

8

2/1

2

2/1

9

2/2

6

3/5

3/1

2

3/1

9

3/2

6

4/2

4/9

4/1

6

4/2

3

4/3

0

5/7

5/1

4

5/2

1

5/2

8

6/4

6/1

1

6/1

8

6/2

5

7/2

7/9

7/1

6

7/2

3

7/3

0

8/6

8/1

3

8/2

0

8/2

7

9/3

9/1

0

9/1

7

9/2

4

10/1

10/8

12

Early primary state voters prefer Joe Biden for the 2020 Democratic nominee for president

MORNING CONSULT TRACKING POLL OF 16,529 REGISTERED VOTERS IN EARLY STATES

Presentation Center | Slide last updated on: October 8, 2019

Sources: Morning Consult, 2019

Polling of voters’ first choices in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada

Sanders

Harris

Warren

Booker

Buttigieg

Biden

Steyer

Page 13: 2020 Election Toolbox - Clark Hill PLC · Note: Social media counts are sourced from campaign social media accounts for contenders that also have official House or Senate accounts

13

Qualifying for the Oct. 15 Democratic primary debates

Zachary Goldstein | Slide last updated on: October 8, 2019

Sources: FiveThirtyEight, Vox, The Hill.

Candidate Polling Donors Both

1. Joe Biden

2. Pete Buttigieg

3. Kamala Harris

4. Beto O’Rourke

5. Bernie Sanders

6. Elizabeth Warren

7. Cory Booker

8. Andrew Yang

9. Amy Klobuchar

10. Julian Castro

11. Tom Steyer

12. Tulsi Gabbard

13. Marianne Williamson

14. John Delaney

15. Tim Ryan

16. Steve Bullock

17. Michael Bennet

18. Wayne Messam

19. Joe Sestak

Criteria for inclusion in the October 15 Democratic primary debates

• 2% of vote in at least four DNC-approved national or early-state polls released between June 28 and October 1

AND

• At least 130,000 unique donors, with at least 400 donors in 20 states

Look ahead: criteria for inclusion in the November Democratic primary debate

• 3% of vote in four qualifying polls or 5% in two single-state polls in IA, NH, SC, or NV

AND

• At least 165,000 unique donors, with at least 600 donors in 20 states

Five candidates have qualified for the November debate so far: Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, and Harris

Page 14: 2020 Election Toolbox - Clark Hill PLC · Note: Social media counts are sourced from campaign social media accounts for contenders that also have official House or Senate accounts

Roadmap

Presidential election

Congressional elections

Congressional fundraising

Gubernatorial elections

Page 15: 2020 Election Toolbox - Clark Hill PLC · Note: Social media counts are sourced from campaign social media accounts for contenders that also have official House or Senate accounts

Slide last updated on: August 29, 2019

Sources: United States Senate: Class II Roster

15

Senators up for re-election in 2020

NH

VT

OH

WVVA

PA

NY

ME

NC

SC

GA

TN*

KY

IN

MI

WI

MN

IL

LATX

OK

ID

NV

OR

WA

CA

AZNM*

CO

WY*

MT ND

SD

IA

UT

FL

AR

MO

MS AL

NE

KS*

AK

HI

Democrats (12) Republicans (22)

Doug Jones (AL) Jeanne Shaheen (NH) Dan Sullivan (AK) Jim Risch (ID) Cindy Hyde-Smith (MS) Lamar Alexander (TN)*

Chris Coons (DE) Cory Booker (NJ) Martha McSally (AZ) Joni Ernst (IA) Steve Daines (MT) Lindsey Graham (SC)

Dick Durbin (IL) Tom Udall (NM)* Tom Cotton (AR) Pat Roberts (KS)* Ben Sasse (NE) John Cornyn (TX)

Ed Markey (MA) Jeff Merkley (OR) Cory Gardner (CO) Mitch McConnell (KY) Thom Tillis (NC) Shelley Moore Capito (WV)

Gary Peters (MI) Jack Reed (RI) David Perdue (GA) Bill Cassidy (LA) Jim Inhofe (OK) Mike Enzi (WY)*

Tina Smith (MN) Mark Warner (VA) Open (GA)** Susan Collins (ME) Mike Rounds (SD)

*Senators not seeking reelection in 2020 **Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) will fill seat before 2020 special election

Page 16: 2020 Election Toolbox - Clark Hill PLC · Note: Social media counts are sourced from campaign social media accounts for contenders that also have official House or Senate accounts

■ Democratic senator Trump victory

■ Republican senator Clinton victory

Danari White | Slide last updated on: May 14, 2019

Sources: New York Times

16

Senators up for re-election in states won by the opposing party’s 2016 presidential candidatePERCENTS INDICATE THE SHARE BY WHICH EITHER TRUMP OR CLINTON WON IN 2016

NY

ME

NC3.6%

SC14.2%

GA5.1%

TN 26%

KY29.8%

LA19.7%

TX9%

OK36.4%

ID31.7%

OR11%

WA

CA

AZ3.5% NM

8.3%

CO4.9%

WY46.3%

MT20.2%

SD29.8%

IA9.4%

UT

AR26.9%

MS16.8%

NE25%

KS20.5%

AK14.7%

WI

OH

PA

IN

ND

WV41.7%

MO

FL

MI0.3%

MN1.5%

NV

HI

IL16.8%

AL27.7%

VA5.4%

MA27.2%

RI15.5%

DE 11.4%

NJ14%

Gary Peters (D) won in 2014 by 13.3%.

Doug Jones (D) won in a 2017 special election by 1.7%

Cory Gardner (R) won by 1.9% in 2014

Page 17: 2020 Election Toolbox - Clark Hill PLC · Note: Social media counts are sourced from campaign social media accounts for contenders that also have official House or Senate accounts

■ Seat held by a Republican ■ Seat held by a Democrat ■ Top five states most likely to flip

17Slide last updated on: September 16, 2019

Sources: National Journal

IN ORDER HOW LIKELY THEY ARE TO FLIP PARTY CONTROL

Hotline’s 2020 Senate power rankings

Hotline: seven GOP-held Senate seats are in the top ten most likely to flip party control

3

6. Iowa — Joni Ernst (R)

7. Michigan — Gary Peters (D)

8. Georgia — David Perdue (R)

9. Texas — John Cornyn (R)

10. Georgia (Special) — Johnny Isakson (R)

1. Alabama:• Incumbent: Doug Jones (D)• Challengers: former Auburn football coach

Tommy Tuberville (R), Rep. Bradley Byrne (R-AL-1)

2. Colorado: • Incumbent: Cory Gardner (R)• Challenger: former Gov. John Hickenlooper (D)

3. Arizona:• Incumbent: Martha McSally (R)• Challengers: Veteran and retired astronaut Mark

Kelly (D)

4. North Carolina:• Incumbent: Thom Tillis (R)• Challengers: Former State Sen. Cal Cunningham

(D), State Sen. Erica Smith (D)

5. Maine: • Incumbent: Susan Collins (R)• Potential challenger: State House Speaker Sara

Gideon (D)

1

2

4

5

8,10

67

9

*List of challengers is not exhaustive

Page 18: 2020 Election Toolbox - Clark Hill PLC · Note: Social media counts are sourced from campaign social media accounts for contenders that also have official House or Senate accounts

■ Seat held by a Republican ■ Seat held by a Democrat

18Slide last updated on: October 1, 2019

* Incumbent not seeking reelection in 2020Sources: National Journal

IN ORDER HOW LIKELY THEY ARE TO FLIP PARTY CONTROL

Hotline’s 2020 House power rankings

Hotline: thirteen Democrat-held House seats are in the top 20 most likely to flip party control

1. Oklahoma – 5th District: Rep. Kendra Horn (D)

2. South Carolina – 1st District: Rep. Joe Cunningham (D)

3. Texas – 23rd District: Rep. Will Hurd (R)*

4. New Mexico – 2nd District: Rep. Xochitl Torres Small (D)

5. Utah – 4th District: Rep Ben McAdams (D)

6. New York – 22nd District: Rep. Anthony Brindisi (D)

7. Minnesota – 7th District: Rep. Collin Peterson (D)

8. New York – 11th District: Rep. Max Rose (D)

9. Pennsylvania – 10th District: Rep. Scott Perry (R)

10. Georgia – 7th District: Rep. Rob Woodall (R)*

11. Iowa – 3rd District: Rep. Cindy Axne (D)

12. Iowa – 1st District: Rep. Abby Finkenauer (D)

13. Maine – 2nd District: Rep. Jared Golden (D)

14. Texas – 24th District: Rep. Kenny Marchant (R)*

15. Texas – 22nd District: Rep. Pete Olson (R)*

16. Virginia – 7th District: Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D)

17. Pennsylvania – 1st District: Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R)

18. New York – 24th District: Rep. John Katko (R)

19. Georgia – 6th District: Rep. Lucy McBath (D)

20. Illinois – 14th District: Rep. Lauren Underwood (D)

1

23

4

5

6

18

7

89

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

19

20

Page 19: 2020 Election Toolbox - Clark Hill PLC · Note: Social media counts are sourced from campaign social media accounts for contenders that also have official House or Senate accounts

4

18

10

15

21

14

3

6

10

7

7

15

28

25

35

5

16

37

20

16

14

13

27

9

13

16

18

11

18

9

23

9

2020

2018

2016

2014

2012

2010

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

Slide last updated on: October 1, 2019

*Data includes retirements; does not include members of Congress seeking a different office or members of Congress who resigned before the electionSources: FiveThirtyEight; National Journal, Ballotpedia.

19

More Republicans than Democrats have announced their retirement before the 2020 electionRetirements from Congress, by election cycle

■ Republicans ■ Democrats

Page 20: 2020 Election Toolbox - Clark Hill PLC · Note: Social media counts are sourced from campaign social media accounts for contenders that also have official House or Senate accounts

Roadmap

Presidential election

Congressional elections

Congressional fundraising

Gubernatorial elections

Page 21: 2020 Election Toolbox - Clark Hill PLC · Note: Social media counts are sourced from campaign social media accounts for contenders that also have official House or Senate accounts

21

The national GOP committees have raised about $63 million more than their Democratic counterparts so far

Sources: FEC

$141,422,037

$76,175,306

$59,543,291

$52,587,041

$42,656,431

$37,709,149

$173,427,745

$236,665,508

RNC

DCCC

DNC

NRCC

NRSC

DSCC

Total Dem

Total GOP

Total receipts by national party PACs

AS OF AUGUST 31, 2019

Alice Johnson| Slide last updated on: October 8, 2019

■ Democratic PAC ■ Republican PAC

Page 22: 2020 Election Toolbox - Clark Hill PLC · Note: Social media counts are sourced from campaign social media accounts for contenders that also have official House or Senate accounts

Alice Johnson | Slide last updated on: October 1, 2019

Sources: National Journal Hotline

22

A look at out-raised House incumbents

Thirteen incumbents were out-raised by challengers in Quarter 2, and three GOP incumbents were out-raised by GOP challengers

District Cook rating Incumbent Incumbentreceipts

Challenger Challenger receipts

IL-13 Lean R Rodney Davis (R) $422,070 Betsy Dirksen (D) $521,887

TX-22 Toss Up Peter Olson (R) $377,529 Sri Kulkarni (D) $420,825

AZ-06 Lean R David Schweikert (R) $237,100 Hiral Tipirneni (D) $440,040

VA-05 Likely R Denver Riggleman (R) $286,473 Roger Huffstetler (D) $303,743

CA-04 Solid R Tom McClintock (R) $173,460 Brynne Kennedy (D) $390,892

CA-08 Solid R Paul Cook (R) $139,299 Christine Bubser (D) $204,800

SC-02 Solid R Joe Wilson (R) $108,589 Adair Boroughs (D) $245,669

CA-39 Lean D Gilbert Cisneros (D) $318,085 Young Kim (R) $401,281

CA-43 Solid D Maxine Waters (D) $135,526 Omar Navarro (R) $162,787

MI-03 Toss Up Justin Amash (I) $177,053 James Lower (R) $200,546

IA-04 Likely R Steve King (R) $91,536 Randall Feenstra (R) $140,451

NY-27 Solid R Chris Collins (R) $511,380 Chris Jacobs (R) $773,273

FL-03 Solid R Theodore Yoho (R) $14,044 Amy Wells (R) $38,470

Page 23: 2020 Election Toolbox - Clark Hill PLC · Note: Social media counts are sourced from campaign social media accounts for contenders that also have official House or Senate accounts

Alice Johnson | Slide last updated on: August 5, 2019

Sources: National Journal Hotline

23

Top 10 House freshmen fundraisers

Over 30 Democratic freshmen members of Congress raised $500,000 or more in Q2

District Cook rating Incumbent Incumbentreceipts

NY-14 Solid D Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez $1.2 million

CA-45 Lean D Katie Porter $1 million

NY-11 Toss Up Max Rose $801,000

CA-48 Lean D Harley Rouda $775,000

CA-10 Lean D Josh Harder $775,000

IL-06 Lean D Sean Casten $737,000

MI-11 Lean D Haley Stevens $735,000

MI-08 Toss Up Elissa Slotkin $734,000

CA-25 Likely D Katie Hill $732,000

IL-14 Toss Up Lauren Underwood $714,000

The majority of the top 10 freshmen fundraisers are in competitive districts, including three freshmen in toss up districts: Rep. Rose (NY-11), Rep. Slotkin (MI-08), and Rep. Underwood (IL-14)

Page 24: 2020 Election Toolbox - Clark Hill PLC · Note: Social media counts are sourced from campaign social media accounts for contenders that also have official House or Senate accounts

Alice Johnson | Slide last updated on: August 27, 2019

Sources: National Journal Hotline

24

A look at out-raised Senate incumbents

Two incumbents were out-raised by challengers and 8 incumbents raised over $2 million in Quarter 2

State Cook rating Incumbent Incumbentreceipts

Challenger Challenger receipts

Arizona Toss Up Martha McSally (R) $3,399,993 Mark Kelly (D) $4,242,066

Massachusetts Solid D Ed Markey (D) $1,032,019 Shannon Liss-Riordan (D) $1,145,481

State Cook rating Incumbent Incumbentreceipts

Arizona Toss Up Martha McSally (R) $3,399,993

Kentucky Likely R Mitch McConnell (R) $3,064,559

South Carolina Solid R Lindsey Graham (R) $3,012,617

Texas Solid R John Cornyn (R) $2,528,370

Michigan Likely D Gary Peters (D) $2,432,299

Colorado Toss Up Cory Gardner (R) $2,009,253

Alabama Toss Up Doug Jones (D) $2,006,226

Maine Toss Up Susan Collins (R) $2,003,723

Top incumbent fundraisers

Despite bringing in the most money in Q2, Rep. Martha McSally (R-AZ) was out-raised by retired astronaut Mark Kelly (D) for the second consecutive quarter

Page 25: 2020 Election Toolbox - Clark Hill PLC · Note: Social media counts are sourced from campaign social media accounts for contenders that also have official House or Senate accounts

Roadmap

Presidential election

Congressional elections

Congressional fundraising

Gubernatorial elections

Page 26: 2020 Election Toolbox - Clark Hill PLC · Note: Social media counts are sourced from campaign social media accounts for contenders that also have official House or Senate accounts

26

One out of 11 governor seats is open going into the 2020 election

*“Open seats” are governorships where incumbent governors are term-limited, they have announced that they are not running for re-election, or lost their primary

Sources: Cook Political Report, 2019; Ballotpedia, 2019.

■ Dem. incumbent (3) ■ Dem. open* (1)

■ GOP incumbent (7)

Slide last updated on: May 14, 2019

2020 gubernatorial races by incumbent and status

NH

VT

OH

WVVA

PA

NY

ME

NC

SC

GA

TN

KY

IN

MI

WI

MN

IL

LATX

OK

ID

NV

OR

WA

CA

AZNM

CO

WY

MT ND

SD

IA

UT

FL

AR

MO

MS AL

NE

KS

AK

HI

MD

MA

RI

CT

DC

DE

NJ

Page 27: 2020 Election Toolbox - Clark Hill PLC · Note: Social media counts are sourced from campaign social media accounts for contenders that also have official House or Senate accounts

■ Seat held by a Republican ■ Seat held by a Democrat ■ Top five states most likely to flip

27Zachary Goldstein | Slide last updated on: August 5, 2019

Sources: National Journal

IN ORDER HOW LIKELY THEY ARE TO FLIP PARTY CONTROL

Hotline’s 2019-2020 gubernatorial power rankings

Hotline: seven GOP-held governor seats are in the top ten most likely to flip party control in 2019-2020

3

6. Mississippi — Open: Phil Bryant (R) is term-limited

7. West Virginia — Jim Justice (R)

8. Vermont — Phil Scott (R)

9. Missouri — Mike Parson (R)

10. Indiana — Eric Holcomb (R)

1. Montana:• Open: Steve Bullock (D) is term-limited• Candidates: Rep. Greg Gianforte (R-MT-AL),

state AG Tim Fox (R), Lt. Gov. Mike Cooney (D)

2. Kentucky: • Incumbent: Matt Bevin (R)• Challenger: Andy Beshear, state AG and son of

former Kentucky Gov. Steve Beshear

3. Louisiana:• Incumbent: John Bel Edwards (D)• Challengers: Rep. Ralph Abraham (R-LA-5),

businessman Eddie Rispone

4. North Carolina:• Incumbent: Roy Cooper (D)• Challengers: Lt. Gov. Dan Forest, state Rep.

Holly Grange

5. New Hampshire: • Incumbent: Chris Sununu (R)• Potential challengers: State Senate majority

leader Dan Feltes, former state Senator and 2018 nominee Molly Kelly

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