2020 and beyond edited ahr 2014 - market research bsria

2020 and beyond

Overlapping and merging

markets

Krystyna Dawson

Heating & Renewables

Manager

BSRIA WMI

2 Excellence in Market Intelligence

Agenda

European Legislation – drive for changes

Europe: New products and the growth of fuel cells

Long term hvac market movements Europe & US

China the engine of the world hvac market

The critical players now JCI/Hitachi VRF

The key players in the smart future

2


• c

Drive for changes in Europe

European Legislation

National Building Regulations

Pushing towards low / zero energy houses

• c Ecodesign of Energy-related Products (ErP) Directive –

Pushing for energy efficient products and systems

• c EU Plan for Renewable Policy after 2020

EU Roadmap 2050

Pushing towards all electric future

De-

carbonized

grid


Up until 2020

4

Products /

technologies

reaching the

market

dfe 2009/10

– 10

2012 2015 2017 2020 2019

Launch FC (Japan)

Resid. Gas

HP

Resid.FC

in

Europe Solar

cooling

Energy

Storage

Systems

Smart Grid + Energy

Homes HEMS

CO2 VRF

CO2 HP

Micro-CHP

ICE/ Stirling Smart

Meters

2000 – 2008

Expansion of

electric HP

and

Solar

Thermals

S y s t e m I n t e g r a t i o n

Hybrid HP


Heating Technologies 2020 Fuel Cells

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Japan

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Germany

SO FC

PEM FC

units

units

Source: Baxi/Innotech Gamma

CAGR 2012-2016

+51%

CAGR 2012-2016

+108%

5


Heating technologies 2020

6

Boilers

UK

81%

15%

10%

51%

7%

18%

2%

15%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

2010 2020

Germany France

82%

38%

1%

25%

14%

30%

3% 6%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

2010 2020

Italy

Heat pumps Solar thermals Micro CHP & FC District heating

New buildings

16% Existing buildings 84%

Heat generators sales to the new dwellings (2010 / 2020)

48%

16%

19%

43%

26% 27%

0% 1%

7% 13%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

2010 2020

67%

38%

17%

38%

15% 22%

1% 1%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

2010 2020


Heating technologies 2020

7

Boilers

UK Germany France Italy

Heat pumps ST systems Micro CHP & FC District heating

New dwellings

16% Existing dwellings 84%

Heat generators sales to the existing dwellings (2010 / 2020)

99% 95%

2%

1% 3%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

2010 2020

84%

57%

3%

9%

13%

14%

20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

2010 2020

82% 67%

9%

17%

9% 14%

2%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

2010 2020

82% 67%

9%

17%

9% 14%

2%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

2010 2020


Long term HVAC North America

8

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Millio

ns

Furnaces (units)

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Mil

lio

ns

Air Conditioning (units)

Splits VRF Chillers Other AC


The US Unitary Market: Estimates of Sales of

Residential Unitary by SEER Type

9

Source: Bsria

Estimate of sales of unitary AC by SEER type from 2005 to 2017 based on supplier’s and

distributor’s indications


China still is the world factory (except

for unitary)Production 2013,% by volume

10


-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Flat plate Vacuum tubes

‘000 m2

Now the world’s leading consumer:

(1) China solar thermal >80% of the world

market

CAGR

2013-2016

Total Market

9.7%

Vacuum Tubes

5%

Flat Plates

23%

> Market expected to grow by 14% and to reach 72.8 million m2 in 2013;

> VT segment grows by 12% in 2013; FP by 20%

> VT accounted for ~80% of the market in 2012


-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

CHINA JAPAN USA

Ground/ water to water Air to water –split systems

Air to water –monobloc systems Exhaust air/ water (combined with heat recovery)

Air to water –cylinder-integrated water heater HP

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

USA

Now the world’s leading consumer

(2)China global domination of hydronic Heat pumps (Air

to water and ground to water)

> 95% of the market in China is monobloc air-to-water

> Downward trend in Japan after Fukushima accident

’000 units Hydronic only

12

Europe around

400,000 units


2012 Top 20 Turnover (M€)

13

HVAC

Total Top 20 sales = €55,622mln (63% of global renewables market)

Charts show 2012 total world sales value at first point of distribution in million euros.

• Renewables includes sales of Heat Pumps (HP) and solar thermal (ST).

The BACS Strategy of The Leading VRF Suppliers

14

24% of sales value in 2012 represented by VRV

(their proprietary term for VRF)

Intelligent Touch Controller (DCS601C71)

Includes a BACNet interface.

28% of sales value in 2012 represented by VRF

Types of Controllers for VRF solutions include:

Remote controllers

H-LINK and H-LINK-2 – provides communication

between indoor and outdoor units

Includes BACNet interface

23% of sales value in 2012 represented by VRF

City Multi VRF System

The AG150 Mitsubishi Electric centralised

controller offers a large 9 inch touch screen

display with easy control of up to 50 indoor units.

Includes BACNet Interface.

10% of sales value is VRF

Already active in the regular BACS market

Johnson Controls’ announced intention to

purchase a 60% share in Hitachi’s aircon

business outside of Japan could turn this

from a threat into an opportunity for JCI.

[

FUTURE PLAYERS – (1)The ‘Smart Home’ is becoming more relevant to

the Business Market

15

Source: BSRIA

• In 2011-2012, the

classical smart

home system

reached a new

break-through

• Internet

connectivity and

the advent of the

standardised

multifunctional

plug- &-play

toolkit are well

placed to put the

industry on a

mass consumer

track,

• moving towards

the ‘ubiquitous

Home’ where

sophisticated

systems learn

user behaviour

and lifestyle.

• 75% of sales in

Germany are to

commercial

market

HOME AUTOMATION EVOLUTION: PAST & FUTURE

16

BEMS Futures: Technological Perspectives


Building Services in the Cloud

Market Opportunities for BEMS / BACS

17

US$

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

BEMS/BACS Monitoring &Management - in theCloud

On-site CentralBEMS/BACS Monitoring &Management - Hardware& Software

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

BEMS/BACSMonitoring &Management - in theCloud Penetration


Leaders of the future

Siemens

Schneider…

IBM

Johnson Controls

Microsoft

Honeywell

ABB

Samsung

Google

LG

Vodafone

Fujitsu

Hitachi

NEC

Panasonic

Trane

e.on

SAP

UTC…

Dalkia - Veolia

Honda

Leaders in 'Smart World' • Google’s strength in web-based

and smart device technology gives

it enormous potential, as does its

track record of breaking into new

technologies (as with acquisition of

Nest Labs in January 2014.

Other areas of core strength

represented include:

• Smart devices, appliances and

HVAC :Samsung, LG, Hitachi,

Fujitsu

• Energy utilities: E.ON, GDF (incl.

Cofely), EDF

• Facility Management: Jones Lang

LaSalle, Dalkia/ Veolia

• Smart Vehicles

Honda, Toyota, etc.


About BSRIA Worldwide Market Intelligence

A globally recognised source of strategic market intelligence

and consultancy in the building and construction industry.

19

Air conditioning

Heating

Renewable Energy

Smart Technology

IT


Thank you

2020 and beyond edited ahr 2014 - market research bsria

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