2020-21 budget: may revision...covid-19 recession revenue drop may revision baseline estimates: •...
TRANSCRIPT
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2020-21 Budget: May Revision
May 26, 2020
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California's Economic Outlook in January
Unemployment at record lows
118 months of consecutive job growth
1 out of 7 new U.S. jobs in California
5th largest economy in the world
Projected surplus and record reserves
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COVID-19 recessionprojected to be worse than Great Recession
U.S. GDP is projected to decrease by 26.5% in spring of 2020
-30.0
-25.0
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
U.S. Real GDP Growth
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis: CA Department of Finance, May Revision Forecast
U.S. in Recession Due to COVID-19
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COVID-19 Recession Revenue Drop
May Revision Baseline Estimates:
• 2018-19 $0.7 billion
• 2019-20 -$9.7 billion
• 2020-21 -$32.2 billion
• Total Revenue Drop -$41.2 billion
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Protecting California's Core Values
Public Education
Public Health
Public Safety
People hit hardest by COVID-19
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The May Revision Proposes
Balanced Solutions(dollars in billions)
Cancelled Expansions & Other Reductions $8.4
Reserves 8.8
Borrowing/Transfers/Deferrals 10.4
New Revenues 4.4
Federal Funds 8.3
Triggers 14.0
Total $54.3
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Use Rainy Day Fund
$7.8
$5.4
$3.0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
2020-21
2021-22
2022-23
Dollars in Billions
Utilize $16.2 billion Rainy Day fund over three fiscal years
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$9.9 billion for State Directed COVID-19 Relief Funds
● $4.4 billion for K-12 students
● $3.8 billion for public health and safety,
emergency response, and families hit hardest
● $1.3 billion for county public health, behavioral
health, and other health and human services
● $450 million for city homelessness and public
safety
Federal Funding Allocations
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School Funding Formula to
Decline $19 billion
• May Revision mitigates decline:
Temporary revenue proposals - $1.8 billion
Federal funds - $4.4 billion
Revised CalPERS/CalSTRS contributions - $1.2 billion
New funding obligation for schools (1.5 percent of revenues)
Public School Reserve - $524 million
Deferrals - $5.3 billion
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● Nearly all state operations will be reduced
● Rethink office space, shrink state real estate portfolio
● More services online and greater efficiencies
Enhancing Government Efficiency
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May Revision includes:
● $100 million for Small Business Loans
● Tax cut to support New Small Businesses
Additional efforts to include:
● Small business recovery
● Increased housing
● Increased investments in human and physical infrastructure
Supporting Job Creation, Economic
Recovery, and Opportunity
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Deficits Will Remain
-$6.5
-$11.8
-$16.3
-$18.0
-$16.0
-$14.0
-$12.0
-$10.0
-$8.0
-$6.0
-$4.0
-$2.0
$0.02021-22 2022-23 2023-24
Do
llars
in B
illio
ns
Operating Deficit Through 2023-24
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The COVID-19 Recession has dwarfed
California’s prudent fiscal planning
Federal funding is essential to maintain
core services of government
California has requested $1 trillion in
federal relief for all states and local
governments
Federal Support is Essential