2019 san diego economic outlook · 2019 san diego economic outlook ray major ... 2003 jan 2004 jan...
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2019 San Diego Economic Outlook
Ray MajorChief Economist
January 17, 20193
National Economic Indicators –Mixed messages
4
+ Continued Strong Job Growth+ Low Unemployment + Low Interest Rates + Healthy Venture Capital Investment
- Stock Market Gives Back Gains- Slowing Growth Forecasts- Trade and Political Uncertainty- Interest Rates and Debt Rising
1,000,000
1,050,000
1,100,000
1,150,000
1,200,000
1,250,000
1,300,000
1,350,000
1,400,000
1,450,000
1,500,000
Jan
2000
Jan
2001
Jan
2002
Jan
2003
Jan
2004
Jan
2005
Jan
2006
Jan
2007
Jan
2008
Jan
2009
Jan
2010
Jan
2011
Jan
2012
Jan
2013
Jan
2014
Jan
2015
Jan
2016
Jan
2017
Jan
2018
San Diego: Total Employment 2000-2018
5
Peak(Dec-07)
Recovery (Jun-14)
78 Months
Trough(Jan-10)
107+ Months
San Diego: Total Employment 2000-2018
6
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
1,250,000
1,300,000
1,350,000
1,400,000
1,450,000
1,500,000
1,550,000
1,600,00020
00
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
SD Employment SD Unemployment %
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
25th Median 75th
San Diego: Nominal Hourly Wage
7Wage Index 2007=100
+ 26%+ 26%+ 24%
Average Income = $58,000
San Diego: Real Hourly Wage
8
96
98
100
102
104
106
108
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
25th Median 75th
Wage Index 2007=100
+1.8%+1.0%- 0.8%
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
Actual Projections
San Diego: Growth Forecast 2018-2050
9
4.0 millionPopulation +700,000
Housing units +400,000
Jobs +360,000
San Diego: Age Composition
10
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,0000
to 4
5 to
9
10 to
14
15 to
19
20 to
24
25 to
29
30 to
34
35 to
39
40 to
44
45 to
49
50 to
54
55 to
59
60 to
64
65 to
69
70 to
74
75 to
79
80 to
84
85 to
89
90 p
lus
2016 Population 2050 Population
81% of the populationgrowth is to ages 65+
11
2050 Projected2018 Existing
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
Units Decadal Average
San Diego: Residential Permits Issued
12
Mira Mesa,
ScrippsRanch
PenasquitosNorth Coast, San Marcos
Carmel Valley, Poway/Rancho
Bernardo, Eastlake
PenasquitosScrippsRanch,
EastlakeSan Luis Rey
12,000 needed annually to support population growth
56,000unit shortage
Source: Economic Research Bureau, Greater San Diego Chamber Of Commerce, Forecast Bulletin Economic Indicators (1970-1992); Real Estate Research Council (RERC) of Southern California, Real Estate and Construction Report (1993-2017)
2018
San Diego: Real Estate Market
13
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
1997
Q2
1998
Q2
1999
Q2
2000
Q2
2001
Q2
2002
Q2
2003
Q2
2004
Q2
2005
Q2
2006
Q2
2007
Q2
2008
Q2
2009
Q2
2010
Q2
2011
Q2
2012
Q2
2013
Q2
2014
Q2
2015
Q2
2016
Q2
2017
Q2
2018
Q2
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
SALE
S
YEAR
ME
DIA
N P
RIC
ES
(SA
)
Existing home Sales (SA) Median Home Prices (SA)
$637k
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%20
00Q
120
01Q
120
02Q
120
03Q
120
04Q
120
05Q
120
06Q
120
07Q
120
08Q
120
09Q
120
10Q
120
11Q
120
12Q
120
13Q
120
14Q
120
15Q
120
16Q
120
17Q
120
18Q
1
US CA SD
Housing Affordability
14
Source: California Association of Realtors, Traditional Housing Affordability Index
46%
23%9%
90%
43%
20%
14
$700k
$650k
$600k
$550k
$500k
$450k
$400k
$350k
$300k
$250k
$200k
$150k
$100k
$50k
$0
‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐
$193KAvg. Income=$58,000
$637K Dual Income=$82,500
$397K Dual Income=$58,000
2018
15
San Diego Housing Prices Taxable Retail Sales
3.0%
2019 Outlook
2.5%
2019
Gross Domestic Product
2.3%
2017
Fed Funds
0.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%2.5%3.0%3.5%
2018 20192017
$575,000
$600,000
$625,000
$650,000
$675,000
$604,000
$633,000
$650,000
2018 20192017
2018
4.1% 2.0%
2019
