2018 q2 results - millicom · 2018-07-19 · last 12-month ebitda margin, q2 2015 –q2 2018 last...

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2018 Q2 results Growth continues to accelerate Millicom International Cellular S.A. Mauricio Ramos, CEO Tim Pennington, CFO July 20 th , 2018

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Page 1: 2018 Q2 results - Millicom · 2018-07-19 · Last 12-month EBITDA margin, Q2 2015 –Q2 2018 Last 12 month Group EBITDA margin Steady upward margin trend continues 2 Cost review and

2018 Q2 resultsGrowth continues to accelerate

Millicom International Cellular S.A.

Mauricio Ramos, CEOTim Pennington, CFOJuly 20th, 2018

Page 2: 2018 Q2 results - Millicom · 2018-07-19 · Last 12-month EBITDA margin, Q2 2015 –Q2 2018 Last 12 month Group EBITDA margin Steady upward margin trend continues 2 Cost review and

Disclaimer

This presentation may contain certain “forward-looking statements” with respect to Millicom’s expectations and plans, strategy, management’s objectives, future performance, costs, revenue, earnings and other trend information. It is important to note that Millicom’s actual results in the future could differ materially from those anticipated in the forward-looking statements depending on various important factors.

All forward-looking statements in this presentation are based on information available to Millicom on the date hereof. All written or oral forward-looking statements attributable to Millicom International Cellular S.A., any Millicom International Cellular S.A. employees or representatives acting on Millicom’s behalf are expressly qualified in their entirety by the factors referred to above. Millicom does not intend to update these forward-looking statements.

This information was prior to this release inside information and is information that Millicom is obliged to make public pursuant to the EU Market Abuse Regulation. This information was submitted for publication, through the agency of the contact person set outabove, at 22:00 CET on July 19th 2018

2

Page 3: 2018 Q2 results - Millicom · 2018-07-19 · Last 12-month EBITDA margin, Q2 2015 –Q2 2018 Last 12 month Group EBITDA margin Steady upward margin trend continues 2 Cost review and

1. CEO review

Mauricio Ramos

Page 4: 2018 Q2 results - Millicom · 2018-07-19 · Last 12-month EBITDA margin, Q2 2015 –Q2 2018 Last 12 month Group EBITDA margin Steady upward margin trend continues 2 Cost review and

1

2

3

4

Q2 Highlights

Latam service revenue growth accelerated to 5.5% on continued strong net adds

All revenue lines contributing to growth - Mobile back above 2%

Home growth accelerated to almost 13% with 140k new HFC homes

Continued margin expansion and double-digit FCF growth

Additional listing on U.S. Stock Exchange next year

Growth continues to accelerate

5

4

Page 5: 2018 Q2 results - Millicom · 2018-07-19 · Last 12-month EBITDA margin, Q2 2015 –Q2 2018 Last 12 month Group EBITDA margin Steady upward margin trend continues 2 Cost review and

Latam %YoY growth, Q1 16 – Q2 18

Revenue growth accelerated to 5.5% in Q21

Q316

-2.0%

Q216

0.9%

Q116

2.9%

Q417

3.1%

2.3%

Q117

-2.3%

Q416

-0.5%

-1.3%

Q217

5.5%

3.9%

Q118Q317 Q218

5

Page 6: 2018 Q2 results - Millicom · 2018-07-19 · Last 12-month EBITDA margin, Q2 2015 –Q2 2018 Last 12 month Group EBITDA margin Steady upward margin trend continues 2 Cost review and

Service revenue, year-on-year (%), Q1 16 – Q2 18

El Salvador

Bolivia

Accelerating performance in our main Latam markets1

Guatemala

Colombia

Honduras

Paraguay

Q218Q118

2.1%

Q417

5.4%

Q317

0.3%

Q217

-1.4%-3.6%

Q117

-6.4%

Q416

-8.7%

Q316

-4.8%

Q216

-3.7%

Q116

-1.6%

Q218Q118

5.7%

Q417

3.4%

Q317

3.5%

Q217

-2.5%

Q117

-4.3%

Q416

-3.9%

Q316

-4.8%

Q216

-0.8%

Q116

2.7%

6.4%

Q218Q118

0.0%

Q417

-0.1%

Q317

-0.8%

Q217

0.0%

Q117

-1.0%

Q416

-0.7%

Q316

-2.5%

Q216

-1.6%

Q116

-0.6%

0.3%

Q218Q118

6.5%

Q117

0.5%

Q416

-0.8%

Q316

2.0%

Q417

9.1%

Q317

6.1%

Q217

2.6%

Q216

4.7%

Q116

5.5%

15.7%

-0.3%

Q416

-1.9%

Q316

-2.9%

Q216

0.6%

Q116

2.3%

-0.2%

Q317

0.3%

Q217

-2.5%

Q117

5.8%

Q218Q118

2.2%

Q417 Q317

6.5%

Q217

4.5%

Q117

2.9%

Q218Q118

7.8%

Q417

8.9%

Q416

2.1%

Q316

3.3%

Q216

6.2%

6.2%

Q116

7.1%

6

Page 7: 2018 Q2 results - Millicom · 2018-07-19 · Last 12-month EBITDA margin, Q2 2015 –Q2 2018 Last 12 month Group EBITDA margin Steady upward margin trend continues 2 Cost review and

B2B service revenue LC %YoY, Q1 17 – Q2 18

B2B (18% of service revenue)Home service revenue LC %YoY, Q1 17 – Q2 18

Home (24% of service revenue)

All three business units growing…2

Mobile B2C service revenue LC %YoY, Q1 17 – Q2 18

Mobile B2C (56% of service rev)

Q218

2.1%

Q118

0.9%

Q417

0.2%

Q317

-0.9%

Q217

-3.8%

Q117

-5.3%

7.3%

Q117

7.3%

Q218

12.6%

Q118

7.6%

Q417

7.1%

Q317

8.8%

Q217

7.1%

Q118

8.9%

Q417

6.4%

Q317

5.7%

Q217

1.4%

Q117

2.5%

Q218

7

Page 8: 2018 Q2 results - Millicom · 2018-07-19 · Last 12-month EBITDA margin, Q2 2015 –Q2 2018 Last 12 month Group EBITDA margin Steady upward margin trend continues 2 Cost review and

Mobile data now generating 50% of mobile service revenue and driving better ARPU

Mobile growth back above 2%2

Population coverage and points of presence (PoP), Q2 17 – Q2 18

Build

8

4G subscribers (millions), Q1 17 – Q2 18

Connect

YoY% growth in local currency, Q2 15 – Q2 18

ARPUMobile data service revenue as % of mobile B2C service revenue, Q2 15 – Q2 18

Mobile data penetration

7,744

5,257

Q218

60%

Q217

50%

PoPCoverage 8.0

4.7

+3.2

Q218Q118Q417Q317Q217Q117

45%

Q117

42%

Q218

50%

Q118

48%

Q417

47%

Q317

46%

Q217

-1.7%

Q417

1.0%

Q118 Q218

-2.7%

Q317

-2.3%

Q217

-4.0%

Q117

-4.2%

+2.1%YoY LC

growth

Page 9: 2018 Q2 results - Millicom · 2018-07-19 · Last 12-month EBITDA margin, Q2 2015 –Q2 2018 Last 12 month Group EBITDA margin Steady upward margin trend continues 2 Cost review and

B2B continues to perform well2

Expanding fibre

9

Building datacenters

Colombia contributes over 50%Small and medium business

110,000 kilometers of fibre in Latin

America

Tier III data centers launched in Colombia, Paraguay and Bolivia

Solutions revenue grows Aprox. 25% YoY

The first half of 2018 has seen in Colombia an accelerated revenue thanks to the contract to provide communications for the elections

SMBs remain a key source for growth as we continue to develop

B2B solutions and expand our coverage in our markets.

~250,000 SMBs customers~40% of B2B revenue

+7.1%YoY LC

growth

Page 10: 2018 Q2 results - Millicom · 2018-07-19 · Last 12-month EBITDA margin, Q2 2015 –Q2 2018 Last 12 month Group EBITDA margin Steady upward margin trend continues 2 Cost review and

Raising our 2018 target to 400k homes connected net additions

Home net adds accelerating with ARPU growth2

HFC homes passed (000), Q2 15 – Q2 18

Build

10

HFC homes connected net additions (000), H1 16 – H1 18

Connect

$ per month, Q2 15 – Q2 18

ARPU

9,076

7,850

6,6675,873

+15.6%

Q2 18Q2 17Q2 16Q2 15

+3,203

117

17956

52

231

H1 17

13215

H1 16 H1 18

+4.2%

Q2 18

29.6

Q2 17

28.4

Q2 16

27.3

HFC homes connected/HFC homes passed, Q2 15 – Q2 18

Penetration

Q2 18

28.2%

Q2 17

28.1%

Q2 16

29.7%

Q2 15

30.9%

InorganicOrganic

+12.6%YoY LC

growth

Page 11: 2018 Q2 results - Millicom · 2018-07-19 · Last 12-month EBITDA margin, Q2 2015 –Q2 2018 Last 12 month Group EBITDA margin Steady upward margin trend continues 2 Cost review and

Contribution to Latam service revenue growth year-on-year, Q2 2018

Contribution to growth by business unit

Home is 24% of revenue but 50% of growth

Home contributed half of the growth in Q23

Q2 18

5.5%

HomeMobile B2C B2B

Growth

Weight*

2% 13%7%

56% 24%18%

* Does not tie to 100% as revenue categories exclude Other, equal to 1% of total11

Page 12: 2018 Q2 results - Millicom · 2018-07-19 · Last 12-month EBITDA margin, Q2 2015 –Q2 2018 Last 12 month Group EBITDA margin Steady upward margin trend continues 2 Cost review and

Planting the seeds for sustainable and profitable long term growth

Colombia key to Latam Home acceleration in Q23

Colombia - Growth YoY in homes connected, Q1 17 – Q2 18

Passed the inflection point Colombia - LTM homes connected net additions, HFC and Other, Q216 – Q218

HFC homes connected growth accelerating

12

-151

-106

-71

34

7595

Q2 17Q2 16 Q2 18

NetOtherHFC

Q4 17

-0.5%

Q3 17

-1.1%

Q2 17

-1.9%

Q1 17

-3.1%

Q2 18

1.5%

Q1 18

0.8%

Page 13: 2018 Q2 results - Millicom · 2018-07-19 · Last 12-month EBITDA margin, Q2 2015 –Q2 2018 Last 12 month Group EBITDA margin Steady upward margin trend continues 2 Cost review and

Solid FCF generation while we invest to drive faster growth

FCF growth continues4

$m, H1 16 – H2 18

EFCF up 16% YTD

39

129

149

H1 18H1 16

15.7%

H1 17

13

Page 14: 2018 Q2 results - Millicom · 2018-07-19 · Last 12-month EBITDA margin, Q2 2015 –Q2 2018 Last 12 month Group EBITDA margin Steady upward margin trend continues 2 Cost review and

2. CFO review

Tim Pennington

Page 15: 2018 Q2 results - Millicom · 2018-07-19 · Last 12-month EBITDA margin, Q2 2015 –Q2 2018 Last 12 month Group EBITDA margin Steady upward margin trend continues 2 Cost review and

1

2

3

4

Financial Highlights

Strong KPI’s driving through to key financial metrics

EBITDA growth driven by core Latam businesses…and cost control

All P&L profit metrics improving…

…and cashflow continues to strengthen

Balance sheet in good shape

Well positioned to face the future

15

5

Page 16: 2018 Q2 results - Millicom · 2018-07-19 · Last 12-month EBITDA margin, Q2 2015 –Q2 2018 Last 12 month Group EBITDA margin Steady upward margin trend continues 2 Cost review and

$m, Q2 17 – Q2 18

Service Revenuea

Group service revenue up 5.3%

Key financial metrics – Q2 20181

1,3651,437

Q2 18Q2 17

5.3%

$m and %, Q2 17 – Q2 18

EBITDAa and Margins

527551

4.6%

Q2 18Q2 17

$m and margin, Q2 17 – Q2 18

Q2 OCF and Marginsb

a) Q2 17 numbers are adjusted to Q2 18 FX rates and exclude Senegal, Rwanda and Ghana

b) Excluding Senegal, Rwanda and Ghana, spectrum & license costs

35.7% 35.8%

16

294

335

$41m

Q2 18Q2 17

20.0% 21.7%

Page 17: 2018 Q2 results - Millicom · 2018-07-19 · Last 12-month EBITDA margin, Q2 2015 –Q2 2018 Last 12 month Group EBITDA margin Steady upward margin trend continues 2 Cost review and

$m and margin, Q2 17 – Q2 18

$m and margin, Q2 17 – Q2 18

Solid growth returning to Latam

Latam1

$m, Q2 17 – Q2 18

Latam service revenue

+5.5%

Q2 18

1,308

Q2 17

1,240

+4.4%

Q2 18

514

Q2 17

492

21.5%

Q2 17

20.9%

Q2 18

+7.2%

304

Notes: Growth rates are organic and exclude the impact of changes in FX rates, accounting, and new segmental presentation. Q2 2017 figures have been adjusted to reflect these organic growth rates.

Capex/revenue excludes spectrum & license costs

Latam EBITDA

Latam OCF

36.5% 36.4%Capex / Revenue 15.6% 14.8%

17

Page 18: 2018 Q2 results - Millicom · 2018-07-19 · Last 12-month EBITDA margin, Q2 2015 –Q2 2018 Last 12 month Group EBITDA margin Steady upward margin trend continues 2 Cost review and

Latam biggest contributor to EBITDA growth

EBITDA – Q2 2018 2

$ million, Q2 17 – Q2 18

EBITDA evolution by region

02

23

LatAm Africa

551

Corporate

527

FX and other

+4.6%

Ebitda Q2 18

+0.6%

3

Ebitda Q2 17

524

Ebitda Q2 17 (constant currency)

35.7% 35.8%as % of revenue

Q2 17 numbers are adjusted to Q2 18 FX rates and exclude Senegal, Rwanda and Ghana18

Page 19: 2018 Q2 results - Millicom · 2018-07-19 · Last 12-month EBITDA margin, Q2 2015 –Q2 2018 Last 12 month Group EBITDA margin Steady upward margin trend continues 2 Cost review and

EBITDA ($m), margin and year-on-year growth, Q2 17 – Q2 18

El Salvador

Bolivia

Strong performance in Bolivia and a return to EBITDA growth in Colombia

EBITDA progression by country2

Guatemala

Colombia

Honduras

Paraguay

172165

+5.7%

Q2 18Q2 17

32

38

Q2 17

(16.8%)

Q2 18

127114

6.9%

Q2 18Q2 17

5951

+17.5%

Q2 18Q2 17

6063

(3.4%)

Q2 18Q2 17

8377

+8.1%

Q2 18Q2 17

EBITDA

35.6% 30.7% 50.6% 50.6% 42.8% 41.2%

38.0% 38.6% 26.6% 27.5% 46.5% 48.4%

Margins 19

Page 20: 2018 Q2 results - Millicom · 2018-07-19 · Last 12-month EBITDA margin, Q2 2015 –Q2 2018 Last 12 month Group EBITDA margin Steady upward margin trend continues 2 Cost review and

Last 12-month EBITDA margin, Q2 2015 – Q2 2018

Last 12 month Group EBITDA margin

Steady upward margin trend continues

Cost review and margin progression2

OPEX and growth* YoY, Q2 17 – Q2 18

Group total OPEX base

35.3%

Q2 16

33.3%

Q2 15

32.6%

+370 bps

Q2 18

36.3%

Q2 17

3.3%

Q2 18

558

Q2 17

Sales and Marketing

General and Adminstration

20

* Excludes IFRS 15

+2.4%

+4.2%

Page 21: 2018 Q2 results - Millicom · 2018-07-19 · Last 12-month EBITDA margin, Q2 2015 –Q2 2018 Last 12 month Group EBITDA margin Steady upward margin trend continues 2 Cost review and

P&L Summary Key Observations

P&L review – Q2 2018 3

US$ million Q2 18 Q2 17 % Var

Revenue 1,541 1,470 4.8%

EBITDA 551 524 5.2%

Depreciation & amortization (315) (326) (3.3%)

Other operating 20 (1) NM

Operating profit 256 197 30.0%

Net financial expense (107) (120) (10.5%)

Others non operating (20) (17) 18.1%

Associates (48) (25) 96.3%

Profit before tax 80 35 127.2%

Taxes (61) (60) 0.6%

Minority interests (19) (9) NM

Discontinued operations (2) 6 NM

Net income (1) (27) NM

EPS ($ per share) (0.01) (0.27) NM

• IFRS 15 had small impact on Service Revenue (-1.3%) and EBITDA (+0.5%)

• Interest savings from re-financing activity, offset by higher financial lease expense

• One-off non-cash adjustment in Ghana

• Improved profitability in Colombia

A

B

C

A

B

C

D

D

21

Significant profit improvement below EBITDA

Page 22: 2018 Q2 results - Millicom · 2018-07-19 · Last 12-month EBITDA margin, Q2 2015 –Q2 2018 Last 12 month Group EBITDA margin Steady upward margin trend continues 2 Cost review and

We generated $149 million of equity FCF in H1

Cash flow – H1 20184

$ million

H1 2018 cash flow

476

91

135

180

79

149229

544

1,111

Dividend to minorities

FCFFinance chargesCash capex (ex-spectrum and licenses)

Ebitda including discontinued operations

Taxes paidCash flow from operations

Working capital and others

eFCF

36.4% 17.8% 7.5% as % of revenue

22

Page 23: 2018 Q2 results - Millicom · 2018-07-19 · Last 12-month EBITDA margin, Q2 2015 –Q2 2018 Last 12 month Group EBITDA margin Steady upward margin trend continues 2 Cost review and

30 June 2018

Debt profile

In H1 net debt reduced by $90m and proportionate leverage below 2.0x

Capital structure5

$ million, 31 December 2017 – 30 June 2018

Net debt evolution in 2018

52

133196

14949

Dividend Net debt Q2 2018

FX andothers

3,981

M&A and

towers

Lease capitalization

21

SpectrumEquity FCF

Net debt YE 2017

4,071

1.86x 1.80x

2.02x 1.95x

Net debt/LTM EBITDA

Proportionate Net debt/ Proportionate LTM EBITDA

23

Maturity

Local 41%

Variable 30%

FXexposure

Fixed or Swapped 70%

Less than 5y 40%

5Y or more 60%

Hard currency 59%

Banks 38%

Latam72%

Interestrates

Bonds 55%

HQ 23%

Geography

Source

Africa5%

Fin. Leases

7%

Page 24: 2018 Q2 results - Millicom · 2018-07-19 · Last 12-month EBITDA margin, Q2 2015 –Q2 2018 Last 12 month Group EBITDA margin Steady upward margin trend continues 2 Cost review and

1

2

3

4

Outlook

+231k HFC homes connected (+179k organic) 10m total homes passed by year-end

+1.1m 4G customer net additions10m 4G customers by year-end

Service revenue growth in Latam

EBITDA growth on track

Updating our full year targets

Target

+300k

+3m

+2-4%

+3-6%

24

Update

~400k

Top-end of range

Page 25: 2018 Q2 results - Millicom · 2018-07-19 · Last 12-month EBITDA margin, Q2 2015 –Q2 2018 Last 12 month Group EBITDA margin Steady upward margin trend continues 2 Cost review and

Recap

25

1

2

3

4

Our strategy is working

Growth is accelerating

Solid first half on financials and KPIs

2018 outlook improving

Strengthened balance sheet and growing cash flow

U.S. listing in 2019

5

6

Page 26: 2018 Q2 results - Millicom · 2018-07-19 · Last 12-month EBITDA margin, Q2 2015 –Q2 2018 Last 12 month Group EBITDA margin Steady upward margin trend continues 2 Cost review and

Q&A

Page 27: 2018 Q2 results - Millicom · 2018-07-19 · Last 12-month EBITDA margin, Q2 2015 –Q2 2018 Last 12 month Group EBITDA margin Steady upward margin trend continues 2 Cost review and

Comfortable capital structure and liquidity with no major maturities until 2024

Debt profile

$ million

Debt maturity profile

39

47

44

40

86

>2027

737

28s$500m

796

25s$500m

2024

988

GT$800m

2023

457

2021

34732

2020

25

2018

10110

2026

14928

20252022

708

PY$300m

40026

2019

546

SEK $224m

International Bonds Local Bonds (Colombia & Bolivia) Finance leasesBank and DFI

Average life of 5.1 years

27

Page 28: 2018 Q2 results - Millicom · 2018-07-19 · Last 12-month EBITDA margin, Q2 2015 –Q2 2018 Last 12 month Group EBITDA margin Steady upward margin trend continues 2 Cost review and

Gross debt by country

Central America:Total debt $1,774m

32% guaranteed

South America:Total debt $1,964m

4% guaranteed

Africa:Total debt $285m54% guaranteed

Total MIC Debt:$5,228m

15% Guaranteed

Corporate:Total debt $1,205m

0% guaranteed

Chad: $64m(96% guaranteed)

Tanzania: $113m(0% guaranteed)Zantel: $108m

(86% guaranteed)Paraguay: $501m(13% guaranteed)

Bolivia: $343m(4% guaranteed)

El Salvador: $245m(92% guaranteed)

Honduras: $390m(51% guaranteed)

Guatemala: $993m(0% guaranteed)

Costa Rica: $147m(100% guaranteed)

Colombia $1,119m(0% guaranteed)

Including finance leases

28

Page 29: 2018 Q2 results - Millicom · 2018-07-19 · Last 12-month EBITDA margin, Q2 2015 –Q2 2018 Last 12 month Group EBITDA margin Steady upward margin trend continues 2 Cost review and

Net debt by country

Central America:$1,330m

Leverage 1.15x

South America:$1,585m

Leverage 1.55x

Africa:$124m

Leverage 0.76x

Total Net Debt:$3,981m

Leverage 1.80x

Chad: $43m

Tanzania: $(15)mZantel: $97m

Paraguay: $392mLeverage 1.2x

Bolivia: $261mLeverage 1.2x

El Salvador: $218mLeverage 1.4x

Honduras: $371mLeverage 1.4x

Guatemala: $650mLeverage 1.0x

Costa Rica: $96mLeverage 1.7x

Colombia: $933mLeverage 2.0x

Including finance leases;Leverage is Net debt / LTM EBITDA

Corporate$942m

29

Page 30: 2018 Q2 results - Millicom · 2018-07-19 · Last 12-month EBITDA margin, Q2 2015 –Q2 2018 Last 12 month Group EBITDA margin Steady upward margin trend continues 2 Cost review and

Currency exposure of debt

*El Salvador has USD as functional currency (treated as local.)

June 2018 Debt including finance leases Cash Net debt

US$ Local Total Total USD Local Total

Latin America*1,766 1,972 3,738 823 1,372 1,544 2,915

47% 53% 100% 47% 53% 100%

Africa110 175 285 161 105 19 124

38% 62% 100% 85% 15% 100%

Corporate1,205 0 1,205 264 950 -9 942

100% 0% 100% 101% -1% 100%

Millicom3,081 2,147 5,228 1,247 2,427 1,554 3,981

59% 41% 100% 61% 39% 100%

30

Page 31: 2018 Q2 results - Millicom · 2018-07-19 · Last 12-month EBITDA margin, Q2 2015 –Q2 2018 Last 12 month Group EBITDA margin Steady upward margin trend continues 2 Cost review and