2018 outlook for the u.s. livestock and poultry sectors · 12/1/2017 · livestock and poultry...
TRANSCRIPT
2018 Outlook for the U.S. Livestock and Poultry Sectors
Presented By
Seanicaa E. Herron
World Agricultural Outlook Board, USDA
USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum
Arlington, VA
February 23, 2018
2018 Livestock and Poultry Highlights
• Record Production• Record per capita disappearance • Favorable feed costs • Continued Export Growth• Lower Prices
Total Red Meat And Poultry Production Record Large In 2018
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*
Billi
on P
ound
s
Beef Pork Poultry Other
• Total red meat and poultry production up 3.8 percent in 2018.
• Beef, pork, broiler sectors are positioned for further expansion.
*Forecast
Per Capita Disappearance, Retail Basis
• Per capita disappearance projected to be record high in 2018 at 222.6 pounds.
0
50
100
150
200
25020
08
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
*
Poun
ds, R
etai
l Wei
ght
Beef Pork Broiler Turkey Other
Feed Cost Outlook
• Corn: $3.36 per bushel in 2016/17*$3.30 per bushel in 2017/18*$3.40 per bushel in 2018/19
• SBM: $316.88 per ton in 2016/17*$320 per ton in 2017/18*$320 per ton in 2018/19
*average price at the midpoint
Meat Exports Projected To Rise In 2018
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.020
08
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
*
BILL
ION
PO
UN
DS
Beef Pork PoultryPoultry = Broilers & Turkey
Livestock & Poultry Prices Forecast Lower
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*
Yr/Y
rPer
cent
Cha
nge
Cattle Hogs Broilers Turkeys
• Livestock and broiler prices pressured lower by increasing production in 2018.
• Turkeys prices forecast lower as production adjusts to changes in demand.
January 1 Cattle Inventory
80
85
90
95
100
10519
9019
9119
9219
9319
9419
9519
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
0320
0420
0520
0620
0720
0820
0920
1020
1120
1220
1320
1420
1520
1620
1720
1820
19*
Mill
ion
Head
• In 2017, cattle herd expanded for fourth consecutive year.
• 94.4 million head as of Jan. 1, 2018, up 0.7 percent year-over.
Beef Cow Herd Expands, Calf-crop Increases
25
27
29
31
33
35
37
39
41
4319
90
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
Mill
ion
Head
Beef Cows Calf-crop (2017)
• Beef cow herd up 1.6 percent at 31.7 million head.
• 2017 calf-crop estimated at 35.8 million head, 2 percent larger than 2016 calf-crop.
• Rate of expansion slowing. Producers retaining fewer replacement heifers.
Cattle On Feed Higher January 1, Supplies Outside Feedlots Down
5
10
15
20
25
3020
08
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Mill
ion
Head
Outside Feedlots On-Feed
• 14.0 million cattle on feed as of January 1, up 7.2 percent year-over.
• Cattle outside feedlots down 2.3 percent.
Beef Production Forecast Record High In 2018
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
2920
08
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
*
Billi
on P
ound
s
+5.9%
• 2018 beef production is forecast to reach 27.7 billion pounds.
Beef Exports Forecast to Increase In 2018
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.020
08
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
*
Billi
on P
ound
s
+5.7%
• Beef exports forecast to reach 3.0 billion pounds this year.
Cattle Prices Forecast Lower In 2018
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
$130
$140
$150
$16020
08
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
*
$/CW
T
5-area steer price
-1.9%
Hog Inventories, Breeding Herd Higher On December 1, 2017
• All hogs and pigs estimated at 73.2 million head, up 2.4 percent.
• Breeding herd continues to expand. Up 1.1 percent year over year.
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
50.0
55.0
60.0
65.0
70.0
75.0
1990
1991
1992
1993
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1996
1997
1998
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2002
2003
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2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Mill
ion
Hea
d
Hog Inventory Dec 1 Breeding Herd
Dec 1 Hog Inventory Breeding Herd
Producers Intend To Farrow More Sows
2.7
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.9
3.0
3.0
3.1
3.1
3.2
QI QII QIII QIV
Mill
ion
Head
2015 2016 2017 2018*
+2.8% +2.3%
*Forecast - 2018 Q1 & Q2 reported intentions. Q3 & Q4 forecasts.
Productivity Growth Increasing
8.5
9
9.5
10
10.5
1120
11 II III IV20
12 II III IV20
13 II III IV20
14 II III IV20
15 II III IV20
16 II III IV20
17 II III IV20
18* II III IV
Head
Pork Production Forecast Record High in 2018
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
2820
08
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
*
Billi
on P
ound
s
+5.1%
• Pork production is forecast to reach 26.9 billion pounds in 2018.
Strong Pork Exports Expected in 2018
• Pork exports are forecast at 5.9 billion pounds, up 4.8 percent year over.
• Lower pork prices, weaker U.S. dollar, and strong global demand to underpin U.S. pork exports.
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.020
08
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
*
Billi
on P
ound
s
+4.8%
Hog Prices Forecast Lower in 2018
$30 $35 $40 $45 $50 $55 $60 $65 $70 $75 $80
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
*
$/CW
T
National Base, Live equiv 51-52% lean
-4.9%
Broiler Laying Flock Above 2016 Levels
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mill
ion
Bird
s
2014 2015 2016 2017
• U.S. laying flock above 2016 levels.
• Increasing broiler laying birds are partially offsetting declines in egg laying rates and chick placements.
Chick Placements Declining in early 2018
160
165
170
175
180
185
190
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51
Mill
ion
Bird
s
U.S. Total Chicks Placed
2015 2016 2017 2018
Heavier Bird Weights Supporting Higher Production in 2018
• Higher proportion of heavier weight birds, supporting increase in average bird weights.
5.6
5.7
5.8
5.9
6.0
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.4
6.5
2016 2017 2018
Poun
ds, L
ivew
eigh
t
Broiler Production Forecast Record High in 2018
+2.3%
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
4420
08
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
*
Billi
on P
ound
s
• Broiler production is forecast to reach 42.6 billion pounds this year.
Broiler Exports Forecast To Reach 7.0 Billion pounds in 2018
5.8
6.0
6.2
6.4
6.6
6.8
7.0
7.2
7.4
7.620
08
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
*
Billi
on P
ound
s
+2.5%
• Exports continuing to make progress from 2015 HPAI disruptions in trade.
• 2018 exports are forecast to increase 2.5 percent year-over.
• Improved shipments to developing markets in Sub-Saharan Africa, Caribbean, and Central America.
Broiler Prices Forecast Lower In 2018
6065707580859095
100105110
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
*
Cent
s Pe
r Pou
nd
National composite weighted avg.
-3.0%
Turkey Poult Placements Below Year-Ago
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mill
ion
Bird
s
2015 2016 2017 2018
Turkey Eggs In Incubators Below Year-Ago
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Mill
ion
Eggs
2015 2016 2017 2018
Turkey Production Fractionally Lower in 2018
5.3
5.4
5.5
5.6
5.7
5.8
5.9
6.0
6.1
6.2
6.320
08
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
*
Billi
on P
ound
s
-0.2% • Turkey production is forecast to decline below 2017 in Q1 and Q2.
• Production is expected to recover in the last half of the year as supplies and demand move into balance.
Turkey Exports Silver Lining in 2018
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.920
08
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
*
Billi
on P
ound
s
+3.9%
• Exports to Mexico expected to remain firm in 2018.
Turkey Prices Forecast Lower In 2018
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*
Cent
s Pe
r Pou
nd
National turkey hen price
-5.0%
Egg Production Forecast Higher In 2018
0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0
10.020
08
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
*
Billi
on D
ozen
Table Hatching
+2.1%
• Favorable margins to support producer intentions to expand egg production in 2018.
Strong Demand Underpins Higher Egg Price Forecast in 2018
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*
Cent
s Pe
r Doz
en
New York wholesale egg price
+16.2%
Additional information about USDA outlook is available at the following websites:
• World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB)World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
• www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/index.htm
• Economic Research Service (ERS)Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Situation and Outlook
• http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1350
• Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS)Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade
• http://www.fas.usda.gov/data/livestock-and-poultry-world-markets-and-trade