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  • 2017 DEMA PREPAREDNESS SYMPOSIUM

    ECONOMIC RECOVERYHow can we recover our economic base following a crisis and how can you support the community?

  • DISCUSSION LEADERS

  • Alan MaguirePresidentThe Maguire Company Chief Deputy, Office of the State Treasurer Economic Advisor to the Arizona State Senate

    President, Arizona Economic Forum Board of Directors, Greater Phoenix Chamber of Commerce

    Ken BurnsChief Financial OfficerArizona Commerce Authority

    Jim RoundsPresidentRounds Consulting Group Senior Economist & Budget Analyst, Arizona State Joint Legislative Budget Committee Senior Vice President, Elliott D. Pollack & Company

    Board of Directors, Arizona Association of Economic Developers

  • Agenda

    What Makes an Economy Tick? What are the risks in Arizona? DISCUSSION

    Risks, Recovery, Preparedness, and Resources Summarize & Feedback Adjourn

  • What Makes an Economy Tick?a.k.a. Where is the Risk?

  • Fundamentals:

    What makes the economy tick? Thus, what can be damaged?

    ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP

  • How a Dollar Moves:

    Value is added through the production process.

    A dollar is imported through outside sales activity. LT

    The dollar is spent within the local economy. ST

    Eventually leakage stops the process.

    ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP

  • The health of an economy is a function of its export, or

    base industries.Long Term Damage Issue

    ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP

  • Without base industries, there is no means of supporting the

    local market employees.

    Short Term Damage Issue

    ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP

  • Base Industries:

    Manufacturing Tourism Advanced Business Services Federal Government Retirement Others

    ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP

  • Why do ghost towns exist?

    ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP

  • Base industries also tend to be more capital intensive and utilize more skilled labor (&

    distribution).

    (exceptions exist tourism)

    ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP

  • In general, the larger urban communities will produce greater multipliers than the smaller rural areas.

    ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP

  • Example:

    Within Arizona, the employment multiplier for truck

    transportation activities is 2.2 in Maricopa County but is only 1.7 in Apache County. Why? Risk?

    ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP

  • Average Annual Wages v. Multiplier Effects

    Industry

    Average Annual Wages

    Job Multiplier

    Base IndustriesComputer & other electronic equipment $111,524 3.2Chemical manufacturing $105,340 4.7Federal government $78,820 1.6Machinery manufacturing $69,197 2.7Advanced business services $69,539 2.1

    Local IndustriesEducational services $33,643 1.4Health care $33,491 1.4Retail sales stores $29,381 1.4Real estate $26,451 1.8

    Source: Implan 2009ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP

  • What inputs drive the economy and can be damaged?

    www.roundsconsulting.comROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP

  • Businesses Need Stuff

    Quality workforce, Quality roads, Competitive costs, Consistent government, etc. etc. etc.

    www.roundsconsulting.comROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP

  • People need stuff

    Jobs, Amenities, Affordable housing, Available financing, Better balance sheets, etc. etc. etc.

    ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP www.roundsconsulting.com

  • Tax Rates? Econ Development Programs? Workforce (quality/avail/cost)? Transportation Infrastructure? Balanced Budget? Marketing? Other Things?

    www.roundsconsulting.com

    What Matters? Interrelated

    ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP

  • Again:Why do ghost towns

    exist?

    ROUNDS CONSULTING GROUP

  • What are the risks in Arizona?

  • Natural Disasters

    Damaging Winds Haboobs Micro-Boost Extreme Heat Floods and Flash Floods Lightning Storms Wildfires Earthquakes

  • Man-Made Disasters

    Nuclear Power Plant Airplane Crash Explosions Power Outage Terrorist Attack Civil Unrest Cyber Attack

  • DISCUSSIONRisks, Recovery, Preparedness, and Resources

  • Discussion Overview What are the top five essentials for your Business Continuity? How are each of these essentials effected by different emergencies / crisis? Who / what can you rely on to supply (backup) each of your top essentials

    for Business Continuity? What physical alternatives do you have, if your operations location is

    unreachable or completely inoperative? What are the impacts of your business not operating? How can your business assist other businesses in the area to continue to

    operate / recover? Individuals? What resources are you aware of to assist your business following a crisis /

    disaster?

  • What are the top five essentials for your Business Continuity?

    What can you absolutely NOT operate without?

    Are there things you can do without for 1 day, 3 days, 1 week, 2 weeks?, but not longer?

  • How are each of these essentials affected by different emergencies / crisis?

    Consider fire, flood, wind damage, cyber attack, other.Consider urban, suburban or rural locations.

  • Who / what can you rely on to supply (backup) each of your top essentials for Business Continuity?

    Which essentials can / have you prepared for in advance?

    Which essentials do you have an alternative source? If so, what is the source?

  • What physical alternatives do you have, if your operations location is unreachable or completely inoperative?

    Can your business operate remotely? For ALL functions? Some functions? Not at all?

    Consider access to Suppliers, Customers, Employees.

  • What are the impacts of your business not operating?

    Consider Customers, Suppliers, Employees, Others.

  • How can your business assist other businesses in the area to continue to operate / recover? Individuals?

  • What resources are you aware of to assist your business following a crisis / disaster?

    Consider Local, State, Federal, Public and Private.

  • Resources for Developing Recovery Strategies

    https://www.ready.gov/business/implementation/continuity

    https://www.ready.gov/business-continuity-planning-suite

    https://www.drii.org/educationProfessional Practices for Business Continuity ProfessionalsDRI International (non-profit business continuity education and certification body)

    https://www.ready.gov/business/implementation/continuityhttps://www.ready.gov/business-continuity-planning-suitehttps://www.drii.org/education

  • Summarize & Feedback

  • Thank You!Alan Maguire

    The Maguire Companywww.AEMaguire.com

    Jim RoundsRounds Consulting Group

    www.roundsconsulting.com

    Ken BurnsArizona Commerce Authority

    www.azcommerce.com

    2017 DEMA PREPAREDNESS SYMPOSIUMDISCUSSION LEADERSSlide Number 3AgendaWhat Makes an Economy Tick?a.k.a. Where is the Risk?Slide Number 6Slide Number 7Slide Number 8Slide Number 9Slide Number 10Slide Number 11Slide Number 12Slide Number 13Slide Number 14Slide Number 15What inputs drive the economy and can be damaged?Businesses Need StuffPeople need stuffSlide Number 19Slide Number 20What are the risks in Arizona?Natural DisastersMan-Made DisastersDISCUSSIONRisks, Recovery, Preparedness, and ResourcesDiscussion OverviewSlide Number 26Slide Number 27Slide Number 28Slide Number 29Slide Number 30Slide Number 31Slide Number 32Slide Number 33Summarize & FeedbackSlide Number 35