2016 러시아리포트 - 한국외국어대학교 러시아연구소 · 2017-10-27 · 편집인...
TRANSCRIPT
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2 0 1 6RUSSIAREPORT
Issues & Analysis
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( HK)
2017 2 3
()
ISBN 978-89-97902-23-1 93340
Issues & Analysis
2009 () (NRF-362-2009-1-B00005).
2016 RUSSIA REPORT
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3
2016 1 . .
RUSSIA REPORT . , 1 12 2017 80 . 6 2016 2017 . , . . , , , , ,
2016 2017 ., 2016
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4 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
. , 7 . 2017 2018 . , 4 . , 2016 2 ()
. 2016 , , . 2017 . , , . , 2016
. , . , . , . , 2014 .
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5
. 2017 , . , 2016 ,
, . 2011~2020 , , . 2017 . /NATO . , 2016
. 4, 5 , (THAAD) . , , . 2017 , , () , . , 2016 120
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6 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
, 2015 , , 25 , , . , . 2017 100 . , . 2016 RUSSIA REPORT
, , , , , . , 12 . RUSSIA REPORT
, .
2017 1 31
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() () 9
3
(Muddling through) 41
87
115
() 147
169
1 : 2016 , 205
2 : 2016 : , : 213
Part I
Part II
Part III
Part IV
Part V
Part VI
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I.
2016 2011 , .
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10 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
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12 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
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14 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
. - , 225 5%
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16 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
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III.
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2. 3
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18 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
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22 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
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IV.
2016 500 , .
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24 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
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No. 374- , 6 2016 . No. 375- - .
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2016 12 NGO . - 2017 1 1 NGO
2 .
- 2015 12 NGO .
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- , 14 NGO , 90 .
12.01.1996 N 7- ( , 2016) 6 .
2017~2019 . - 2014
.
19.12.2016 N 415- 2017 2018 2019 .
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26 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
40 . 2013~14 91~93 .
2016 . - 1 2016 7 1 7,500 . - 2 2017 7 1 7,800 .
19. 06. 2000 N 82- ( , 2016).
. - 2016 4
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03. 07. 2016 N 237- ( , 2016).
12 21 , .
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2 19 , .
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V.
2016 12 1 , , , , .
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28 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
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2019~2020, 2017~2025 , IT () . .
.
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30 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
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VI.
1.
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, , .
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- ( ).
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. - , ,
. -
.
2.
1 .
( ) 2000 ( ) .
- 2001 (Henry Kissinger), (Jacob Rothschild) .
- 2014 , 2016 11 13 .
- .
-
-
32 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
, 1 .
() .
- 2016 - ( - ), ( ) .
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() .
: - 2016 http://rusrand.ru/analytics/socialnye-nastroeniya--itogi-2016-goda
[1] 1~2 , ?
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- .
.
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2015 11 2016 10 .
3.
, . . .
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, () . , .
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34 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
. . -
! . - ,
.
VII. : 2016
2017 2018 4 .
- , 2018 3 .
- , 1 .
- (2016 12 18 ) 85.8% .
- 2018 3 .
- 2008~2012 , 2012~2018 3 .
- 2008 1~2 , ,
-
PAR
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. -
, 3 , .
- , 4 .
- 2017 2018 4 .
2017 , 2016 .
- 3 .
- , , EU , .
- .
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36 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
.
- 3 .
- .
- 2016 12 23 (/) . , 58% .
15%, 7%, 6%, 2%, 3%, 2% .
- , .
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- , 2017~2025 , , .
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PAR
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- 2018 .
- . . , 7 .
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- .
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38 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
. -
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. - 2016
. -
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.
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I. 2016
2016 2 (-)
(muddling through) .
(IMF), (WB) 2015 3.7% (-) 1) 2016 0.6% 2 (-) . 12 -0.5% 9 (-0.6%) 0.1% .2)
1) 2016 12 30 2015 GDP () (-)3.7% (-)3.0% .
2) ,
(Muddling through)
( )
-
42 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
2008 9 7.8% (-) 2009 6 .
5.4% 2015 12.9% 1992 2016 .
2015 (stagation) 2016 .
2016 (IMF), (World Bank) (, ) .
- 2016 IMF -0.6%, World Bank -0.7% , 40 (-)1.0% , 50 2016 0.5% -1.0% .
- 2016 , , 2016 . c. 7.
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- , .
(2012~2016)
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
GDP(%) 3.4 1.3 0.6 -3.7 -0.5
GDP (10 ) 62,218 66,755 71,406 80,804 82,815
(CPI) 6.6 6.5 11.4 12.9 5.4
3.4 0.4 1.7 -3.4 1.0
2.6 3.2
6.8 -0.2 -3.7 -8.4 -3.7
(%) 4.6 3.2 -0.7 -4.3 -5.8
(%) 8.4 4.8 1.3 -9.0 0.5
() 26,629 29,792 32,495 34,030 35,754*
(%) 5.7 5.7 5.2 5.9 5.4*
(%) 6.3 3.9 2.7 -10.0 -4.9
(%) 3.5 2.0 1.3 -2.0 -0.5
(10 ) 527.4 523.3 497.8 341.5 279.2
(10 ) 335.8 341.3 308.0 193.0 191.4
(10 ) 71.3 34.8 58.4 69.0 22.2
(. $/bbl) 110.5 107.9 97.6 51.2 41.8
(. /) 31.1 31.8 38.4 61.0 67.1
(%) 3.1 1.8 0.8 -3.2 -0.6
* : 11 : , .
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44 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
1. 2016
: 0.6% (-) - (World Bank),
(IMF) 2016 -0.5% -0.6% . 2015 (-) 2000 2 .
- 2010 4.5% 6 2000 .
(GDP)
GDP :
(%) (%) GDP :
(%) (%)
2015 2016 2016 2015 2016 2016
GDP -3.0 -0.6 100.0 GDP -3.0 -0.6 100.0
-5.4 -2.4 74.0 , . 3.1 1.1 3.9
- -5.1 -2.0 54.0 1.1 0.8 8.2
- -0.3 -0.3 19.6 -5.1 -0.4 12.7
-3.9 0.6 22.7 , , -1.4 0.0 2.5
- -1.6 -0.8 22.3 -7.4 -3.1 5.2
-1.8 1.3 0.4 -10.0 -2.3 14.2
6.4 1.1 5.3 -1.5 -0.9 6.7
- 1.0 -0.1 26.2 36.6
- 5.4 1.2 20.9 10.1
-2.0
: .
-
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2016 () () .
- () : 2015 2016
(-) 2015 3.8% 2% .
3.7% 0.8% .
(+) 1.1% . 2015 6.4% .
0.6% .
- () : (, )
1.1%, 0.8% (+) , -0.3%, .
, 10.0% 2016 4.9% (+) .
2014 12 20 8 , 4/4
-
46 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
. , .
2016 (-) - 2015
, , ( ) .
- : , EU .
(- ) - 2016 (GDP) 25%,
(1~11) 38%. (1~9) 55% . 2015 2016 - .
() 2015 - GDP 27%, 43%, 60% .
- 50%, (FDI) 75%,
80% (EU)
-
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EU . (APEC) .
- : .
- : (OPEC) 2016 .
- ,
- : (ination) .
2. (Ination)
2016 . 2015 (-) 2 2016 (-) 5.4% .
-
48 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
: . - -
. 9 (key rate) 10.5% , . 2016 ( . M1) 3.7% , 2015 48 6,669 2016 48 7,602 (-) .
- .
- . 5.4% (2015 10.2%) . 14.0% 5.5% . 6.5% 2015 2016 ( ) .
2017 5.0% . 6.2% 2012~2013(5.0%~5.5%) .
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2016 2015 (stagnation) (inflation) (stagflation) .
1) (misery index) 2016
GDP
() , . (Arthur Okun) , . .
( %)
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50 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
2015~2016 20(G20) 3 .
20(G20) (misery index)
(A) (B)
(C) (A+B-C) 2015
2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016 2015 2016
1.69 1.57 6.08 5.71 2.44 2.87 5.32 4.41 9.73 -0.91
10.67 7.25 8.53 11.21 -3.85 -3.27 23.05 21.73 44.77 -1.32
1.30 1.84 6.89 7.04 1.08 1.16 7.11 7.72 14.84 0.61
1.60 2.30 4.05 4.05 6.90 6.59 -1.25 -0.24 -1.49 1.01
0.27 0.00 10.38 9.84 1.27 1.33 9.38 8.51 17.89 -0.87
0.30 1.17 4.63 4.29 1.48 1.75 3.45 3.71 7.16 0.26
5.26 5.29 - - 7.56 7.62 -2.30 -2.33 -4.63 -0.02
3.35 3.41 6.18 5.60 4.79 4.94 4.74 4.08 8.82 -0.66
0.10 -0.57 11.91 11.46 0.76 0.76 11.25 10.13 21.38 -1.12
0.20 -0.14 3.37 3.18 0.54 0.51 3.02 2.54 5.56 -0.49
1.28 1.34 3.64 3.62 2.61 2.72 2.31 2.24 4.55 -0.07
2.13 3.16 4.35 4.05 2.47 2.09 4.02 5.12 9.14 1.10
12.91 5.95 5.58 5.84 -3.73 -0.76 22.21 12.55 34.76 -9.66
2.27 4.02 5.59 5.59 3.49 1.19 4.38 8.42 12.80 4.05
5.23 6.70 25.37 26.32 1.27 0.12 29.33 32.90 62.23 3.58
8.81 9.09 10.28 10.17 3.99 3.28 15.10 15.98 31.09 0.88
0.10 1.50 5.40 4.96 2.25 1.84 3.26 4.63 7.88 1.37
0.74 1.82 5.28 4.90 2.60 1.58 3.42 5.14 8.56 1.72
: IMF World Economic Outlook Database . 2016 .
3 20 2016 12.55 2015 22.21
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. 2 34.76 (62.23) (44.77) 3 . G20 .
3.
1) :
60%(2015 ) (, , ) 2016 . 2016 41.8 , (51.2) 18.4% . 1,000 2015 225.62 2016 3/4 149.5 .
(1~9 ) 5.5%, 6.1% 2016 (3,415 ) 18.2%, 623 2,792 . 1,930 1,914 16 (0.8%) . 2016 2015 1,485 878 .
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52 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
(: )
2013 2014 20152016
1/4 2/4 3/4 4/4
1,806 1,889 1,485 222 221 185 250 878
5,218 4,968 3,415 603 678 711 800 2,792
* 3,566 3,316 2,054 352 396 406 444 1,598
3,416 3,079 1,930 381 457 526 551 1,914
-583 -553 -369 -49 -60 -73 -61 -243
-132 -101 -51 -4 -4 -6 -10 -25
-665 -580 -319 -34 -129 -79 -83 -325
-93 -82 -56 -12 -12 -23 -17 -64
334 575 690 123 17 4 78 222
* : , , :
2016 2005 2,400 11 . -7.8% 2009 2,972 . 1,000 2004 836 . 2012 , . . .
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2) :
2016 690 1/3 222 . 2000 . . 2016 878 . , , .
(2014.01~2016.11)
1,000 , ()
-
54 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
. 2016 154 2015 575 . .
3) :
2016 12 31 3,777 2015 3,855 93 . 3,080 (81.5%), 602 (15.9%) SDR 65 (1.7%), IMF 30 (0.8%) .
2016 11 6 .
10
(2016 11 . : )
1 30,516 (-2,788) 6 3,853 (+169)
2 12,193 (-139) 7 3,850 (+263)
3 6,858 (+790) 8 3,720 (+40)
4 5,383 (-776) 9 3,656 (+91)
5 4,343 (+83) 10 3,611 (+107)
: ( ) 2015 : IMF,
2014 2015
-
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2016 , . 82 . () 2014 789.2 56.5 , 2015 23.4 .
2014 3,500 . , , 3,500 .
4.
1)
: - 2016 11
512.3 , 117.3 . 19 6.64 , () 3.4 , 8.36 .
:
-
56 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
- 2016 9 5,194 2015 10 .
- , 2010 6 . 2015 3,500 . 2014 , .
- . 2016 9 504 9.7% . GDP 4.0% . GDP 37% , , , .
- . 2016 11 74% (75%) (95%) .
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2) :
2016 11 2015 (7 3,076 ) 2,947 7 6,024 . 1 6,080
(: )
2011.12 2012.12 2013.12 2014.12 2015.12 2016.06 2016.09
538,884 636,421 728,864 599,901 518,418 523,906 519,436
- 34,732 54,411 61,743 41,606 30,551 35,984 40,393
- 11,547 15,639 15,963 10,599 11,033 9,818 9,980
- 162,764 201,567 214,394 171,450 131,733 127,734 123,586
- 329,842 364,803 436,764 376,246 345,100 350,369 345,478
:
-
58 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
. GDP(2016 ) 8.8% . 2017 5,856 2020 2 2,130 29% .
2016 11 2 5,490 GDP 3.1% . 85 2 2,084 , 3,404 .
(IMF) Historical Public Debt Database(HPDD) (public debt) GDP 16.4% G20 (5.0%)
-
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.3)
(G20) (Public debt to GDP ratio) .
- G7: (105.2%), (248.0%), (71.0%), (89.0%),
(96.1%), (132.7%), (91.5%) - : (73.7%), (16.4%), (69.1%), (42.9%),
(49.8%)
- : (37.9%), (27.3%), (32.9%),
(54.0%), (52.1%), (37.6%), (5.0%)
5.
2016 (scal rule)4) . 2016 . 2016 1~11 - 19.6% . (59.9R/$ 67.3R/$ 12.2% ) (52.6 41.0 22.4%) .
3) IMF, eLibrary Data. Historical Public Debt Database. 2015. http://data.imf.org/?sk=806ED027-520D-497F-9052-63EC199F5E63
4) , , , .
-
60 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
4.7% ( 8.2%, 10.0%) (19.8%) . 2016 1~11 GDP 15.2% 11 4,350 6.1%.
(10%) (7.0%) 1.2% 13 2,230 . 1 7,880 . 2016 GDP 3.7% .
. . .
2013 . GDP 2013 -1.19% 2014 -1.09% -1% 2015 -3.48% 2016 -3.93% . IMF 2016 13 GDP ,
-
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-
62 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
, 4 . 2015 2016 .
6.
1) (key rate)
(Key rate) : - . key rate 2013 9
(2016. 1~11)
2016
2015 1~11 2016 1~11
10 %* 10 %* 10 %* (%)
13,369 16.1 12,175 16.8 11,435 15.2 -6.1
- 4,778 5.8 5,411 7.5 4,350 5.8 -19.6
- 8,591 10.4 6,764 9.3 7,085 9.4 4.7
16,403 19.8 13,071 18.0 13,223 17.6 1.2
-3,034 -3.7 -897 -1.2 -1,788 -2.4
3,034 1,788
- 500 396
- 1,200 861
- -700 -465
- -7 98
- 2,541 1,294
%* : GDP(1~11) : .
-
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. 2013 9 key rate 1~6/1 (Repo) ( ) .
2014 OPEC 2015 2015 1 17% . 2015 5 . 8 11.0% .
2016 ,
-
64 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
6 14 9 19 2 0.25% 10% .
9 . 2016 2017 1/4~2/4 .
2016 12 .
- G20 13.75%. - . 1
4.35%, 1.50%, (Repo ) 5.75%, 6.50%, 5.25%, 7.0%,
CDS
-
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8.0% .5)
2) (CDS)
2016 (sovereign risk) 2015 . 5 (CDS) 2016 179 bp 2015 125bp . . 278bp, 276bp, 214bp 154bp, 154bp, 117bp .6)
5) . " - ", No. 4 (16), 2016. c. 51.
6) , " ", 09 2017 . c.18
-
66 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
3)
2015 5, 2016 2 . 12% 12 10%, 10 (OFZ) 11% 8% .
(MIACR) (1 ) 5 11.06% 11.02% 11 9% 10.02% .
. .
- 1 ( ) 1 8.2% 10 6.01% . 9.79% 8.89% . 25.43% 23.23% , 13.37% 12.07% . 17~18% , 3% . (credit history) . 10% . 11~13% .
-
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4) (2016.01.01 ~ 2016.12.31.)
2016 . , , 1 . 1 28.8 1 80 . 1 2, 3 70 . 10 62 .
(MOEX) (US$) 2015 72.8827 2016 12 31 60.6569 16.8%. () 79.6972 63.8111 20% ( ).
-
68 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
- (real exchange rate) 2016 1~11 11.0%, (real effective exchange rate) 13.4% .
.
- (2000 1 ~ 2008 8) - -0.86, (2008 9 ~ 2016 12) -0.72 (-) .
- 2014 1 2016 12 -0.98 (-) . 2014 2014 8 11 .
5)
(MOEX) RTS Index MICEX Index . 2015 RTS MICEX 2016 .
- RTS Index 2015 12 30 757.04 2016 12 30 1152.33 52.2% 2013 3 .
-
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(OPEC) .
- MICEX Index 1761.36 2232.72 26.8% .
- RTS Index MICEX Index () .
(RTSI) (2014~2016)
RTS Index 50 2015 3,454.5 2016 5,519.2 2,064.5
(59.8%) , MICEX Index 50 25 3,200 33 6,879 33.0% .
-
70 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
. - 16(2000~2016)
(RTSI) 0.84 .
- (2000 1 ~ 2008 8) (RTSI) 0.91 (+) , 0.82 . 2014 2016 0.89 3 . 50% .
7.
2016 15 65 8,372 2015(8,484 ) 111.4 . 2015 7,270 2016 7,265 5 , 6,839 3 . 462.5 .
2016 (ILO ) 5.9% 2005 . 2014 5.2%
-
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0.7%
1 35,754 2015 34,030 5.1% . 0.5% . 2015 -4.3% 2016 -5.8% .
II. 2017
2017 : 2 (-) .
1. 2017
2017 2 (-) . 2015~2016 (, ) .
2017 -
-
72 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
(inflation targeting) , .
, , , .
, (EU) () 7) , , .
2016 11 (OPEC) 2017 (+) .
7) 2015 3 12 3 2015 7% () . . '()' 2015 6.9% () , 2016 6.7% 1990 26 () .
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2015 2016(e) 2017(f) 2018(f)
GDP %
() -3.0 -0.6 1.1 1.8
(IMF) -3.7 -0.6 1.1 1.2
(WB) -3.7 -0.6 1.5 1.7
OECD -3.7 -0.8 0.8 1.0
EU -3.7 -1.0 0.6 0.8
() -3.7 -0.6 1.2~1.7 2.0~2.5
% ()
() 12.9 5.8 4.5 4.3
12.9 5.8 4.5 4.3
IMF 12.9 5.9 4.9 4.0
% () -10.0 -4.6 2.0 2.7
% () -9.0 0.3 1.7 3.1
% () -4.3 -5.6 1.2 1.8
% () -8.4 -3.7 1.5 2.8
% World Bank -18.7 1.9 6.0 4.9
%(GDP)
IMF -3.5 -3.9 -1.5 -0.8
World Bank -3.5 -4.2 -2.5 -0.5
10 () 341.5 279.0 314.9 344.1
10 () 193.0 186.7 206.6 223.5
%(GDP)
() 5.2 2.6 2.7 2.9
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10 () -58 -18 -15 -15
% () 59 59 58 58
% () -3.2 -0.6 1.4 2.3
. RUB/US$ () 61.0 67.5 63.3 62.1
US$/bbl* 51.2 41 48 52
* 51.9 43.3 55.2 59.9
* : , Dubai, Brent, West Texas Intermediate 3 . : IMF, World Bank, OECD, .
-
74 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
2017 2016 . .
1) : 2 (+)
2016 11 (OPEC) 8 (turning point) .
2017 . +0.6% +1.5% . 6 2017 1.1% . .
- 8) : 2016 11 48 2017 1.1% . 40 0.6% .
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PAR
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- (IMF) 2017 1 (The World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update) 2017 1.1% . 2016 10 .
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, (barometer) .
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2016 2017
10) World Bank, "Russia Economic Report : The Russian Economy Inches Forward: Will that suce to turn the tide?", No. 36. I November 2016.
-
76 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
. 2017 4% . 2017 4% .
2016 9 0.25% 2017 .
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2017 GDP 1.5~2.5% 2016 . (scal rule) .
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-
78 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
(barometer) . 2017 . .
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2016 9 28 (OPEC) 2017 . 2017 () 4 .
2016 43
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(Muddling through) 79
2017 55 . , OPEC . 2017 2018 (-) .11)
. 2014 , 3 . ((CIS)) 2014 1,000 346 2015 245 100 , 2016 165 . 2017 1,000 185.6, 2018 205 . ,
11) World Bank, "Russia Economic Report : The Russian Economy Inches Forward: Will that suffice to turn the tide?", No. 36. I November 2016. http://www.worldbank.org/en/country/russia/publication/rer
-
80 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
, .
(2) (EU) 2016 12 15 EU 2014 2017 7 6 .
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. 2017 1 18 . . . .
5 GDP 18% , 1/2 2/3 . 2017 2018 17% . 2011 6 2015 -3.4% , 2016 -0.6% . 2017
-
82 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
1.4% .
. (15 65 ) 2016 8,372 2017 8,276 , 2018 8,189 , 2019 8,117 2015
(8,484 ) 4 366 , 7,270 7,154 116 . 2017 .
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2014 OPEC . . .
2010 .
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PAR
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-
84 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
III.
2000 10 2010 . , 1, 2(2000~2008) . , . .
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88 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
.
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89
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90 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
II.
( 2016 ) 3 9 .
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91
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92 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
, 2016 10 , , . , 12 (uklad) .
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-
PAR
T
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93
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-
94 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
. .
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- , 2016 5 3 . 72 , , ,
-
PAR
T
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95
. 73 , MD . . 2013 , MD . 74 .
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-
96 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
. EAEU , , 2016 6 , , 32 . , 2013 , . , ASEAN . , 89 .
2012 2 .
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PAR
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III
97
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1.
.
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98 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
- 2015 2 , . 2016 1 8, 10 . , .
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99
. 5 30 .
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100 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
. 2015 6 , , 3 2 . 4 21 2014 1 , 1991 . 8 17 , .
. - 2016 1 29
2016 100 . , 6 2015 3 IMF 400 (175 IMF, EU ) 10 5 . 2014 5 2015 5 20 . 6 15 12 2 2,000 . 7 7
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PAR
T
III
101
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102 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
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103
, 2016 1 1 . , 2016 2 4 . 2 9 , , , .
6~7 .
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104 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
, (Rosatom) 200 (Akkuyu) 2014 . . 7 1 , 8 28 . , 11 7 , S-300, S-400 . 12 1 ( ) , 2019 157 2 .
.
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105
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106 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
, 2017 1 , .
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107
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108 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
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109
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110 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
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112 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
. . .
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113
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115
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116 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
, , (41%) (58.3%). , , , , .
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117
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-
118 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
107, 2000 298 2010 852 . 61% . NATO 1.5 .
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119
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120 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
. - 11 22 - .
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PAR
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121
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122 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
. , 2018 .
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.
2013 2014 2015 2016 2020()
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123
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: Gaidar institute, Russian Economy in 2012: trends and outlook(Moscow: Gaidar Institute, 2013), p.512.
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-
124 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
(%) 19 26 30 41 48 59 64 70
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125
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-
126 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
-DM(-) 2017 . , , .
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PAR
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127
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128 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
. , , ( , ) , .
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2016 . 2015 9 30 () IS
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PAR
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129
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130 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
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PAR
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131
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132 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
3. (Army-2016)
. , , , 7 30 8 13 2 .
20 19 82,000( 3,500 ) 23 ( 13 ) . NATO . , , , , , , , . 20, 2, 1 .
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133
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-
134 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
1,000, , 20 . Tu-22 . 2016 CSTO , , , .
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135
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136 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
(, -2016) - 2008 8.29~9.7
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138 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
. - 11.2~15 , , 3
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140 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
- 2015 145 . 2016
8 80 , 50 . 560 . , , , , , , , , , .
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142 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
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144 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
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148 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
.
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1) Georgy Toloraya, UNSCR 2270: A Conundrum for Russia, 38 North (05 March 2016). http://38north.org/2016/03/gtoloraya030516/ (: 2016.12.21.).
2) 2015 8400 . 2014 9 7% , . 2013 ( 65 ) 90% . .
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150 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
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152 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
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154 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
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156 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
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158 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
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160 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
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162 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
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164 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
18 19 7.31 .
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214 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
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216 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
213,347 50,642
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218 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
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222 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
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224 2016 RUSSIA REPORT : Issues & Analysis
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