2015 march gray reports - student demand trends

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GRAYREPORTS Demand for Educational Programs www.GrayAssociates.com Results through March 2015

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GRAYREPORTS Demand for Educational Programs

www.GrayAssociates.com

Results through March 2015

617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 2

GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]

Who Is Gray?

GrayData

Completions and Enrollments IPEDS

Employment BLS/O*NET

Placement Rates Gray Research

Industry Inquiries GrayReports

Demographics US Census

Job Postings WANTED Analytics

Students Programs Strategy Locations §  Demographic

priorities §  Geo-priorities §  Market share

§  City selection §  Location selection §  Relocation analysis §  Consolidation

§  Program selection §  Program development §  Curriculum enhancement §  Market reports

§  Business strategy §  Strategy implementation §  Pricing §  Outcome improvement

Advanced Analytics Predictive Models

Geo-Analytics

Clients: Higher Education Institutions and Investors

Program Pricing: Coming in 2015

617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 3

GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]

What is GrayReports?

GrayReports tracks demand trends in higher education. §  Overall industry trend reports are a free monthly service, which includes these webinars. §  Custom reports on trends by market and programs, which we provide to our paid subscribers:

─  Monthly reports for their specific programs and markets ─  On-line access to detailed data for their programs and markets

Over 37 million qualified inquiries January 2012 to the present

Over 930,000 new inquiries in March 2015 Over 185 programs with over 10,000 inquiries

Over 300 cities with over 10,000 inquiries

617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 4

GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]

Agenda

1.  National Inquiry Trends

2.  Inquiries and Conversions: On-Line vs. On-Ground Programs

3.  Views by Program and Segment

4.  Geo-Targeting

5.  Summary

617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 5

GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]

Overall Student Inquiries

Overall, the “slowdown is slowing:” March inquiries dropped only 5% year-over-year. §  January dropped 12%. §  February fell 10%. §  March was the least-bad month this year.

-5% YOY

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

National Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels 2014 2015

617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 6

GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]

1.  Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.

3.3%

3.1%

3.6%

3.5%

3.5%

3.5%

3.7%

3.3%

3.4%

3.9%

2.9%

2.9%

2.7%

2.1%

1.6%

2.7%

2.3% 1.8%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Education Industry Inquiry Conversion Rates 2014 2015 Average Immature Conversion Rate

Inquiry to Application: Conversion Rates

The slowdown is slowing for conversion rates, too. §  Last year the close rate averaged 3.4%. §  December, the most recent mature month, closed at only 2.9%. §  January, February and March are at or just below norms for immature months.

Immature Months1

2014 Mature Average: 3.4%

617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 7

GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]

Number of Conversions

The total number of converted inquiries steadily declined in 2014. §  November and December, now mature months, were down significantly year-over-year.

─  November conversions fell 33%. ─  December conversions fell 20%.

§  January, still an immature month, has the best opportunity to match year-ago levels. §  February and March are likely to fall short; but it is too soon to be sure.

Immature Months1

1.  Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.

- 5,000

10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Education Industry Inquiry Conversions All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2013

Immature Months1

617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 8

GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]

Average Price for Pay-per-Lead Inquiries

The average price for external inquiries flat-lined in the first quarter of 2015. §  The average price settled at slightly above $44. §  As in February, inquiry prices were up 5% year-over-year in March.

$44.01 $44.21 $44.33

$42.13 $42.24 $42.13 $42.87 $41.59

$44.97 $44.67 $44.86 $46.15 $46.45 $45.94

$43.11

$30

$32

$34

$36

$38

$40

$42

$44

$46

$48

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Average Price per Pay-per-Lead Inquiry All Programs and Award Levels

2015 2014

Note: Inquiry price is the average price for pay-per-lead inquiries.

617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 9

GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]

Average Cost Per Converted Inquiry

The cost for a converted inquiry (inquiry-to-application) is likely to stay above $1,400. §  The most recent mature month, December closed at $1,464 up 6%. §  We estimate that January will mature just under $1,300. §  February and March are likely to mature above $1,400.

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2014 1261.488 1367.238 1184.523 1239.777 1181.089 1279.695 1194.133 1369.375 1364.959 1177.324 1565.561 1464.060 2015 1625.828 2111.399 2747.813 2013 1368.131 1522.057 1327.552 1388.356 1377.617 1136.420 1268.198 1323.551 1456.435 1407.252 1381.354 1379.051

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000 Cost Per Converted Inquiry All Programs and Award Levels

Immature Months

617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 10

GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]

Agenda

1.  National Inquiry Trends

2.  Inquiries and Conversions: On-Line vs. On-Ground Programs

3.  Views by Program and Segment

4.  Geo-Targeting

5.  Summary

617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 11

GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]

Inquiries for On-Line Programs Education Industry Inquiries: YOY Percent Change On-line inquiry volumes took a step back in March, falling 8% year-over-year. §  Inquiry volumes are down 11% in the first three months of 2015.

─  January was dropped 17%. ─  February fell 5%.

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Inquiries

Inquiries for On-Line Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015

-8% YOY

617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 12

GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]

Student Inquiry Conversions for On-Line Programs

December conversions finished down 33% year-over-year. §  With all of 2014 now mature, year-over-year conversions were down 20%. §  January and February should mature at or above last year. §  March is off to a slow start.

1.  Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Inquiry Conversions for On-Line Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2013

Immature Months1

617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 13

GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]

Inquiries for On-Ground Programs

Inquiries for On-Ground programs almost matched 2014 in February. But, March fell 15%. §  Thanks to a healthy start, in the first quarter of 2015, on-ground inquiry volumes were down just 8%.

─  February fell 1%. ─  January fell 7%.

2012

0 50,000

100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Inquiries

Inquiries for On-Ground Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015

-15% YOY

617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 14

GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]

After October of 2014, conversions for on-ground programs plummeted. §  December finished 27% behind 2013.

─  November was 34% behind 2013.

§  This year is off to a slow start. When Q1 matures, it is likely to be down 10% or more.

- 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000

10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Inquiry Conversions for On-Ground Programs All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2013

Immature Months1

Student Inquiry Conversions for On-Ground Programs

1.  Applications are counted in the month in which the inquiry was received (i.e., an inquiry that is received in January and converts in March will be counted as a January inquiry). Typically, the application rate will rise for at least three months after the month in which the inquiries were received.

617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 15

GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Conversions of External Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2013

Conversions of External Inquiries

The number of conversions from external inquiries has been on the decline.

§  Now mature, December closed 19% behind 2013. §  Our estimates suggest that the first quarter will mature 15-20% below last year.

Immature Months

617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 16

GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]

Conversions of Internal Inquiries

Conversions of internal inquiries held their own in 2104, except in November and December. §  November conversion volumes fell 37% while December followed with a 22% decline. §  In Q1 2015, the January and February got off to a good start. §  March is likely to mature well-below last year.

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Conversions of Internal Inquiries All Programs and Award Levels

2014 2015 2013

Immature Months

617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 17

GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]

Agenda

1.  National Inquiry Trends

2.  Inquiries and Conversions: On-Line vs. On-Ground Programs

3.  Views by Program and Segment

4.  Geo-Targeting

5.  Summary

617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 18

GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]

Largest Programs: March Growth

Three of the five largest programs grew year-over-year.

§  Health Care Administration inquiry volumes jumped 28%. §  Accounting and Business Administration were up slightly. §  Medical Assisting dropped 17%. §  Criminal Justice collapsed, losing 70% year-over-year.

-26% -19%

-5%

2%

-23%

28%

2% 1%

-17%

-72% -80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

Health Care Admin/Management

Accounting Business Admin and Management

Medical Assisting Criminal Justice/Police Science

Year-over-Year Change in March Inquiries Five Largest Programs

2014 YoY % Change 2015 YoY % Change

617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 19

GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]

-52% -47%

33% 38%

-1%

316%

115% 75% 66% 59%

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

300%

350%

Curriculum and Instruction

Educational Leadership and Administration

Welding Tech Registered Nursing Nursing Science

Year-over-Year Change in March Inquiries Five Fastest-Growing Programs

2014 YoY % Change 2015 YoY % Change

Top 5 Fastest-Growing Programs in March

The 5 fastest-growing programs grew at least 50% in March. §  Curriculum and Instruction unseated Welding Tech as the fastest-growing program.

─  Welding Tech was the fastest growing program for six consecutive months.

§  Educational Leadership and Administration, Curriculum and Instruction, and Nursing Science are new to the list of fastest-growing programs in March.

1.  Includes only the top 75 programs (based on inquiry volume since January 2012)

617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 20

GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]

Largest Cities for Inquiries

All five of the largest markets experienced a decline in March. §  New York and Atlanta declined under 4%. §  In March, Los Angeles replaced Chicago as the worst-performing market, declining 26%.

-14% -17%

-13%

-1%

-6% -3%

-4%

-11% -14%

-26% -30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

New York Atlanta Chicago Philadelphia Los Angeles

Year-over-Year Change in March Inquiries Top Five Cities for Inquiries

2014 YoY % Change 2015 YoY % Change

Note: The market for each city is defined as a 15-mile radius around the population center of its CBSA.

617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 21

GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]

Fastest-Growing Cities for All Inquiries

Three new cities joined the list of fastest-growers in March. §  Oklahoma City followed 35% growth in February with 56% growth in March. §  Wichita, KS and Bridgeport, CT are new to the list in March. §  Jacksonville, FL and Hartford, CT fell off the list of fastest-growing cities.

-10% -5%

-13% -9% -7%

56%

18% 14% 12% 10%

-15%

-5%

5%

15%

25%

35%

45%

55%

Oklahoma City, OK Wichita, KS Kansas City, MO/KS Bridgeport, CT Indianapolis, IN

Year-over-Year Change in March Inquiries Five Fastest-Growing Cities for All Inquiries

2014 YoY % Change 2015 YoY % Change

1. Includes only the top 75 cities by inquiry volume since January 2012. Data includes a 15-mile radius from the center of the CBSA.

617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 22

GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]

Sustainers vs. Strugglers: Inquiry Volume

The Sustainers grew in March!

-12% -15% -15% -12%

0%

-3% -13% -16%

-31% -44% -46%

-27%

47% 44%

28%

10% 9% 7%

-6% -13%

-7% -7% -11% -9%

-50%

-30%

-10%

10%

30%

50%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Sustainers vs. Strugglers Year-over-Year Change in Inquiry Volumes 2014

-15% -11% -8% -6% -8%

2%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Year-over-Year Change in Inquiry Volumes 2015

Strugglers

Sustainers

617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 23

GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]

Agenda

1.  National Inquiry Trends

2.  Inquiries and Conversions: On-Line vs. On-Ground Programs

3.  Views by Program and Segment

4.  Geo-Targeting

5.  Summary

617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 24

GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]

Quarterly Change in Inquiry Volumes by State

The GrayReports service allows you to see where the growth is. §  In March, the mid-west, Florida and Massachusetts did well.

617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 25

GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]

% Change in Inquiry Volumes by County

The fastest growth in Massachusetts took place west and south of Boston

617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 26

GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]

% Change in Inquiry Volumes by Census Tract

Let’s take a closer look, by tract.

617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 27

GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]

% Change in Inquiry Volumes by Census Tract

In Boston, demand was strong just south of the city center

617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 28

GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]

% Change in Inquiry Volumes by Census Tract

While inquiries were strong in this tract, so far in Q1, conversions are not keeping pace.

617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 29

GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]

Agenda

1.  National Inquiry Trends

2.  Inquiries and Conversions: On-Line vs. On-Ground Programs

3.  Views by Program and Segment

4.  Geo-Targeting

5.  Quarterly Summary

617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 30

GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]

The first quarter of 2015 compared to the first quarter of 2014.

% Change in Inquiry Volumes by Inquiry Source and Campus Type

18.3%

-15.5%

-7.9%

-8.6%

-10.7%

-20.0% -10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 20.0%

Internal

External

Ground Programs

Unknown (CT)

Online Programs Q1 2015 / Q1 2014

All Programs and Award

Levels

617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 31

GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]

The first quarter of 2015 compared to the first quarter of 2014.

% Change in Inquiry Volumes by Degree Level and Inquiry Source

-40.0%

-20.0%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

120.0%

140.0%

- 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000

Q1 YoY Change

Inquiries

Internal External Total

C

A

B

D

M

C A

B D M C

A B

D M

C: Certificate A: Associate’s B: Bachelor’s M: Master’s D: Doctorate

617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 32

GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]

Upcoming Gray Associates’ Webinars

Please join us next month!

May Webinar (April Results)

Thursday, May 21st at 1:00 p.m. Eastern Time

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617.401.7662 www.GrayAssociates.com 39

GRAY For more information please contact Bob Atkins. Email: [email protected]

Questions and Contacts

Please feel free to contact:

Bob Atkins CEO

Gray Associates, Inc.

[email protected] 617-366-2836

***

George Kobakov Business Development

SocialHP

[email protected] 416-999-3397