FAMtasy 1st Base Rankings

1. Miguel Cabrera

The perennial MVP candidate had a “down” year in 2014. However, 99.9% of baseball would have called it a career year (.313, 25 HRs, 109 RBIs). This 12 year veteran has a ton of miles on those legs (turns 32 in April) and there is a bevy of young talent at 1B gunning for the title of #1 First Baseman in the game… but Cabrera hangs onto it for 2015. He should go in the first half of the 1st round in all fantasy drafts.

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Cabrera OPS Vs. League Average OPS

Miguel Cabrera OPS League Average OPS

2. Paul Goldschmidt

Goldschmidt’s 2014 campaign was cut short after taking a fastball to his left hand in early August. He was on pace for another MVP quality season and has developed into one of the premier 1st basemen in the game today. It’s fair to expect .290+, 25+ HRs, 100+ RBI’s, and double digit steals out of Goldschmidt in 2015. It wouldn’t be a reach to take him in the first round.

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0.437

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Deadly Early in the Count

Career Batting Average by Count

3. Jose AbreuAbreu came into the majors swinging in 2014. He lead all of MLB with 25 homers through June. After June the power numbers slowed down (11 HRs after July 1st), but the contact picked up (.352 BA after July 1st). At 28 years old, there is a very real chance this just the beginning of Abreu’s prime. 2015 should be another monster year for the White Sox slugger as the team spent the offseason surrounding him with more talent. The acquisitions of Melky Cabrera and Adam LaRoche should help boost Abreu’s RBI numbers and give him some protection in the heart of the lineup.

April/March.270 BA10 HR32 RBI

May.241 BA

5 HR10 RBI

June.313 BA10 HR22 RBI

July.374 BA

6 HR19 RBI

August.376 BA

2 HR16 RBI

Sept/Oct.298 BA

3 HR8 RBI

4. Edwin EncarnacionEncarnacion has earned a reputation for being a bit injury prone. Even though he missed 34 games in 2014 he still managed to hit 34 HRs and drive in 98 runs for the Blue Jays. The arrival of Justin Smoak in Toronto will almost certainly mean more DH time for Encarnacion (provided Smoak hits well enough to stay in the lineup). As long as he plays enough 1B to retain eligibility, this shouldn’t concern potentially fantasy owners as it should help to keep him healthier in 2015.

I would look for Edwin’s 2015 numbers to resemble his 2014 stat line with a chance to improve if he can stay healthy.

2012

.280 BA42 HR110 RBI

2013

.272 BA36 HR104 RBI

2014

.268 BA34 HR98 RBI

5. Anthony Rizzo

.274 BA

.369 OBP

.476 SLG

.845 OPS

.233 BA

.320 OBP

.423 SLG

.743 OPS

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Career on the Road

At 25, Rizzo may actually find himself being one of the veterans in the suddenly exciting Cubs lineup in 2015.

The Cubs would love to see Rizzo become more consistent with his Home/Road splits and really be the guy to count on every day in the middle of a very young lineup. He certainly seems to have the talent to take that next step.

As far as 2015 stats go, I don’t believe another 30+ HR, .280+ BA season is far fetched. His RBI total will depend on how the young talent around him performs. Rizzo should be a very strong fantasy option in 2015.

6. Adrian Gonzalez

2006-2008(Average Season)

.288 BA30 HR

100 RBI

2009-2011(Average Season)

.306 BA33 HR

106 RBI

2012-2014(Average Season)

.29022 HR

108 RBI

Gonzalez has been one of the better first basemen in the game for the past decade. His power numbers have declined slightly since leaving Boston for the Chavez Ravine, but he has remained an RBI machine. Gonzalez has also been one of the more durable players in the game throughout his career.

He is a safe bet for another .280 BA, 20+ HR, 100+ RBI campaign in 2015.

7. Albert PujolsPujols isn’t quite the feared hitter that he was in St. Louis, but he quietly put together a really strong 2014 season:

.272 BA, 37 doubles, 28 HR, 105 RBI

I see no reason that Pujols couldn’t put up similar numbers in 2015. He remains a very solid fantasy option even if he is no longer the elite 1B he used to be.

8. Prince FielderIt seems that many have already forgotten about Fielder, but prior to 2014’s injury shortened season he was remarkably healthy and consistent. From 2006-2013 Fielder had 8 consecutive seasons of 157+ games played, 25+ HRs, and 100+ RBIs. Prince was given a clean bill of health and appears to be 100% heading into 2015.

If your league is sleeping on the Rangers’ slugger, take advantage. I think there is a great chance Fielder greatly outperforms his ADP this season. I’d look for a return to his normal numbers in 2015 (.285 BA, 30 HRs, 100+ RBIs).

Prince Fielder Average Season 2006-2013

Batting Average Home Runs RBI .OPS

.286 35 108 .919

9. Freddie FreemanFreeman took a step back offensively in 2014. He still had a very respectable year (.288 BA, 18 HR, 78 RBI) for a team that really struggled to score runs.

On paper, the Braves didn’t do Freeman any favors going into 2015 as they traded away Evan Gattis, Justin Upton, and Jason Heyward over the winter. The Braves will be counting on Freeman to return to his 2013 form (.319 BA, 23 HR, 109 RBI) in 2015. Even if he does, I believe he will struggle to match the RBI totals as the lineup around him just doesn’t seem to be very strong.

Freeman is a riskier pick in 2015 than he has been the past few years.

10. Victor MartinezMartinez has strung together 2 healthy seasons in a row after sitting out all of 2012 with a torn ACL. Health hasn’t always been a given for the 36 year old, but when healthy Martinez is one of the best left-handed hitters in the game. He had his power stroke working in 2014 (career high 32 HRs) and his patience at the plate lead to a league leading .409 OBP.

A healthy Victor Martinez is a borderline elite option at 1st base, but another offseason knee surgery makes projecting his 2015 a little murky. If his knees are healthy enough to allow him to gain eligibility at Catcher during inter-league play, Martinez suddenly becomes an even more valuable asset… but as of now that appears to be unlikely.