2015-05-08 drd asp talk final
TRANSCRIPT
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Seizing Global Markets by Predicting and Profiting from Disruptive Innovation
Dr David Ellison Association for Strategic Planning 2015 National Conference
2015/05/08
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How do you predict the future?
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“The best way to predict the future is to invent it.
Alan Kay
(inventor of Object Oriented Programming)
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“To hell with circumstances;I create opportunities.
Bruce Lee
(Hong Kong action film actor, philosopher)
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How do you invent the future?
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“How do you invent the future?Like everything else.
Dr David Ellison
(international trade consultant, self-quoter)
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How to invent in science
Fundamental Research
Understand
Translational Research
Apply
vs
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If only I knew...
magic“one hit wonder”
breakthrough“you just got lucky”
hobby“waste of time”
thought-provoking“speculative”T
ran
sla
tio
na
l Re
sea
rch
Lo
w
Hig
h
Low HighFundamental Research
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How to invent anything
Principles
GeneralLong-term
Techniques
SpecificShort-term
vs
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“The point of poweris always in thepresent momentLouise L Hay
American motivational author
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How to lead
Character
GeneralLong-term
Techniques
SpecificShort-term
vs
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Character leadership
Which characteristics are necessary in a leader?
Is it situational?
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Leadership Techniques
How important are techniques to leaders?
What techniques are most necessary for leaders today?
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How to invent in business
Long-term
Management paradigms
Competitive Advantage
Market shifts
Short-term
Management practices
Competitive Edge
Market trends
vs
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“Trends foretell the future.
Dr David Ellison
(business coach, self quoter x2)
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“Ideas shape the course of history.
John Maynard Keynes
(British economist)
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How can trends change the business world?
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High-profile examples
Western Union - No to telephoneAT&T - No to cell phones (till 1990’s)
Digital - No to PCsSony - No to MP3/iPod
American Auto Industry - No to small carsKodak - No to digital cameras
(from Using Theories of Innovation to See What’s Next)
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“I intend to live forever.So far, so good.Steven Wright
(American Comedian)
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How do you see trends?
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“You can’t wait for inspiration; you have to go after it with a club.
Jack London
(American author, Call of the Wild)
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Trend principles
Explorer
Seed
Be an:
Look for:
Simplifier
Growth
Curator
Impact
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What is groundswell?
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How do you see international trends?
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THINK: Prioritize Risk
3
4
21
BrandCyber
Supply Chain
Regulatory
PLACE YOUR BUSINESS STRATEGY IN THE CONTEXT OF KNOWN HISTORICAL AND CURRENT RISKS
?
?
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PLAN: Anticipate Change
China
20%
25%Germany
40%United States
15%Brasil
BASELINE RISKS TO ANTICIPATE CHANGE
Geo
grap
hy
Time
RISK
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ACT: Intelligence-Driven Mitigation Strategies
CONTINUOUS MONITORING OF INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL
RISKS
STRATEGY
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What trends will change your business?
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Rules of the Game
You have to know the industry so I can ask good questions
You have to be willing and able to take actionYou have to accept me making stupid
suggestionsEveryone is here to help, this in not the
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Thank you
Dr David Ellison703-644-4557
[email protected]://gov-relations.com
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