20141125 bh report: world cup
DESCRIPTION
20141125 BH Report: World CupTRANSCRIPT
BH Report: World Cup 2014/11/25
Context
I'm your typical 'casual fan' of soccer/football. I don't follow regular seasons or care to remember
player names, but I watch world cup games once every four years. This year, I even entered into the
bracket, and actually came close to winning (just because I guessed Germany's victory right).
As somebody who hasn't really followed the trend closely, I had no idea which team was supposed to
be really strong vs. somewhat strong. It was also difficult to say whether the game was a "typical"
game, or "exciting" game with higher # of goals when compared to previous world cups.
In this report, I tried to explore the following:
• How long has world cup been going on? How has it changed over time?
• Which are "strong" countries? Is there any pattern?
• How many players are there in the world?
– What percentage of the population do they take up? is there any correlation with "strong"
countries?
There has been 20 world cups since 1930
3232323232
24242424
16161616161616
1315
16
13
0
10
20
30
40
#9 1970
#10 1974
#11 1978
#12 1982
#13 1986
#14 1990
#15 1994
#16 1998
#17 2002
#18 2006
#19 2010
#20 2014
# of teams in the world cup
#1 1930
#2 1934
#3 1938
1948
1942
#4 1950
#5 1954
#6 1958
#7 1962
#8 1966
No world cups
(WWII)
# participating teams have been increasing over time
(~every 20 years or so)
Source: Planet World Cup
Attendance has been more or less stable at ~50K attendees per match for the last 50 years
80
90
100
0
4,000
40
0
20
2,000
1,000
3,000
50
60
70
10
30
# of attendees (thousand) # of attendees per match (thousand)
1934 1938 1950
51
1,639
1930 1954 1958 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 1962 2014 1966 1970
25
2010
54
1974
448
1978
3,430
# of attendees
# of attendees per match
Was hosted in the USA – easier access for larger
population?
# attendees doubled in the last 50 years while attendees per
match remained flat
Source: Planet World Cup
Average # of goals used to be higher (3+) before 50's Has been stable at around 2.5 for the last 50 years
2.7
2.32.32.5
2.72.7
2.2
2.52.7
2.6
3.0
3.6
5.4
4.0
4.7
4.1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1986 1990 1994 1998 2002
# of average goals per match
2.8
1954 1950 1938 1934 1930 2014 2010 2006 1958 1962 1982
3.9
1974
2.8
1966 1978 1970
2.8
Source: Planet World Cup
Goal average introduced as ways to separate teams
World cup has been hosted in 16 countries
Source: Fifa.com
Countries hosted once
Countries hosted twice
Host region has changed almost every occurrence (Europe => Latin America/Asia/N. America/Africa => Europe)
Source: Fifa.com
Year Host region Host nation Winning nation # rank of the host
1930 Latain Ameria Uruguay Uruguay 1
1934 Europe Italy Italy 1
1938 Europe France Italy 6
1950 Latain Ameria Brazil Uruguay 2
1954 Europe Switzerland Germany 8
1958 Europe Sweden Brazil 2
1962 Latain Ameria Chile Brazil 3
1966 Europe England England 1
1970 Latain Ameria Mexico Brazil 6
1974 Europe Germany Germany 1
1978 Latain Ameria Argentina Argentina 1
1982 Europe Spain Italy 12
1986 Latain Ameria Mexico Argentina 6
1990 Europe Italy West Germany 3
1994 North America USA Brazil 14
1998 Europe France France 1
2002 Asia Korea/Japan Brazil 4/9
2006 Europe Germany Italy 3
2010 Africa South Africa Spain 20
2014 Latain Ameria Brazil Germany 6
Hosting nation used to rank higher in the early days of
world cup?
19 countries have ever made it to the 3rd place and above (only 8 champions)
Team Best finish # Participations % games won Average Goal deifferential1
#1 Brazil 1st 19 69% 1.3
#2 Germany 1st 17 61% 0.9
#3 Italy 1st 17 55% 0.7
#4 Argentina 1st 15 53% 0.6
#5 England 1st 13 44% 0.4
#6 Spain 1st 13 50% 0.5
#7 France 1st 13 46% 0.5
#8 Uruguay 1st 11 38% 0.2
#9 Netherlands 2nd 9 51% 0.6
#10 Sweden 2nd 11 35% 0.1
#11 Hungary 2nd 9 47% 0.9
#12 Czech Republic 2nd 9 36% (0.1)
#13 Poland 3rd 7 48% 0.1
#14 Austria 3rd 7 41% (0.1)
#15 Portugal 3rd 5 52% 0.7
#16 Chile 3rd 8 31% (0.4)
#17 United States 3rd 9 24% (0.8)
#18 Croatia 3rd 3 46% 0.3
#19 Turkey 3rd 2 50% 0.3
1. Defined as (# of goals scored by the team - # of goals scored against the team) / # of matches played by the game Note: Based on 1930-2010 world cups Source: Fifa.com
Should win 50%+ of the matches, and have ~0.5+ goal differential
Germany stands out to be the country with highest # of registered players (and high % of population)
0
2
4
6
8
10
10,000 1,000 100 10 1
Austria
China
Russia
Canada
Poland Spain
Ukraine
# registered players as % of population
Population (million, log scale)
Japan
Czech Netherlands
S. Africa
Brazil
USA
Norway
Greece
Germany
England
Italy
France
Sweden
Belgium
Iran
Chile
India
Slovakia
Australia
These 26 countries represent ~80% of the world's
registered players (~38 million)
Source: Fifa.com; WorldBank
Germany: Base population is large & high % of population
is registered player
Brazil: surprisingly low % of population is registered players
– they are more of stars
India/China: Football still a very small sport in the two countries
with most populations
# of registered players and the strength of the country somewhat correlate (if you squint)... the correlation is weak
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
10 10,000 1,000 100
# of registered players (thousand, log scale)
Average point per match1
Haiti
Jamaica
Ghana
N. Ireland
Uruguay
Ecuador
Cameroon
Slovenia
Israel
Cuba
El Salvador
Costa Rica
Bulgaria Tunisia
Bolivia
Nigeria
Honduras
Wales
Paraguay
New Zealand
Romania
Croatia
Scotland
Hungary
Serbia
Portugal
Morocco
Senegal
Turkey
Algeria
Switzerland
Ireland
Trinidad and Tobago
Angola
Iraq
Saudi Arabia
Peru
Norway
Greece
Slovakia
Australia
Belgium Chile
Sweden
Austria
Spain
Colombia
Poland
Czech
Ukraine
Canada
Japan
Netherlands
S. Africa
England
Italy
France
Brazil
USA
Germany
Denmark
Mexico
Argentina
1. Calculated by FIFA using a relatively complicated formula – at high level, it is based on M( was the match won, or did it end in a draw), I (how important was the match), T (strength of the opposition), C (strength of the confederation) Note: Based on 1930-2010 world cups Source: Fifa.com; WorldBank
R2 = 27%
Back-up: #1 Brazil World Cup performance
665
9
55
34
5
3
6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
19
42
19
94
19
96
19
98
19
30
19
38
20
06
19
44
19
36
19
34
19
32
19
50
20
02
20
12
20
04
20
08
20
14
20
00
19
46
20
10
19
48
19
54
19
52
19
86
19
84
19
92
19
88
19
78
19
82
19
76
19
74
19
72
19
68
19
66
19
64
19
62
19
58
19
56
19
90
19
70
19
80
19
60
19
40
2
Brazil
Rank
11
1 2
14
1 1 1 1
Source: Fifa.com
Has been consistently strong
Median 4.5 5 times champion
Back-up: #2 Germany World Cup performance
33
7
56
3
7
43
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
19
70
19
68
19
72
19
66
19
64
19
62
19
60
19
48
19
46
19
92
19
94
19
98
19
96
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
88
19
74
19
86
19
90
19
76
19
42
19
38
19
44
20
10
20
14
20
12
20
08
19
36
19
34
19
32
19
30
19
52
19
50
19
58
19
54
19
56
19
40
Rank
Germany 2 1 1
2
10
1 2 2
1
Source: Fifa.com
Even more consistent performance than Brazil
(never ranked below #10)
Median 3.0 4 times champion
Back-up: #3 Italy World Cup performance
11
5
34
9910
7
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
19
40
19
38
19
36
19
34
19
32
19
30
20
04
19
90
20
02
20
00
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
98
19
88
19
86
19
84
19
82
19
80
19
78
19
76
19
74
19
72
19
70
19
68
19
66
19
64
19
62
19
60
19
58
19
56
19
54
19
52
19
50
19
48
19
46
19
44
19
42
20
14
20
12
20
10
20
08
20
06
12
10
1
Italy
Rank
2
26
2 1
15
1 1
Source: Fifa.com
Very volatile performance
(e.g., #15 in 2002 => #1 in 2006 => #26 in 2010)
Median 6.0 4 times champion
Back-up: #4 Argentina World Cup performance
566
8
5
10
13
9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
20
04
20
14
20
12
20
10
20
08
20
06
20
00
20
02
19
36
19
34
19
32
19
30
19
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
19
88
19
86
19
84
19
82
19
80
19
78
19
76
19
74
19
72
19
70
19
68
19
66
19
64
19
62
19
60
19
58
19
56
19
54
19
52
19
50
19
48
19
46
19
44
19
42
19
40
19
38
1
11
1
Rank
2 2
Argentina
18
10
2
Source: Fifa.com
Back and forth between middling to high ranking
Median 6.0 2 times champion
Back-up: #5 England World Cup performance
76
9
4
8
6
88
6
8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
19
98
20
10
20
04
20
02
20
00
19
86
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
19
88
20
08
19
84
19
82
19
80
19
78
19
76
19
74
19
72
19
70
19
68
19
66
19
64
19
62
19
60
19
58
19
56
19
54
19
52
19
50
19
48
19
46
19
44
19
42
19
40
19
38
19
36
19
34
19
32
19
30
20
06
20
14
20
12
20
11
England
1
13
Rank
Source: Fifa.com
Consistently upper single digit with an exception of 1966
(has been worth lately)
Median 8.0 1 time champion
Back-up: #6 Spain World Cup performance
9
12
5
8
10
7
1010
13
45
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
20
02
19
34
19
32
20
14
20
12
20
10
19
76
19
30
19
38
20
08
20
06
20
04
20
00
19
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
19
88
19
86
19
84
19
82
19
80
19
78
19
50
19
74
19
72
19
70
19
68
19
66
19
64
19
62
19
60
19
58
19
56
19
54
19
52
19
48
19
46
19
44
19
42
19
40
19
36
Rank
10
1
Spain
17
Source: Fifa.com
Similar (or worth) compared to England with an exception
of 2010 championship
Median 9.5 1 time champion
Back-up: #7 France World Cup performance
67
34
13
3
9
7
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
19
38
19
68
19
66
19
64
19
54
19
62
19
60
19
58
19
56
19
30
20
14
20
12
20
10
20
08
20
06
20
04
20
02
20
00
19
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
19
88
19
86
19
84
19
82
19
80
19
78
19
76
19
74
19
72
19
70
19
44
19
46
19
52
19
48
19
50
19
42
19
40
19
36
19
34
19
32
Rank
France
11 12
1
28
2
29
Source: Fifa.com
The most volatile team among the top countries
Median 7.0 1 time champion
Back-up: #8 Uruguay World Cup performance
4
1616
4
7
12
4
8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
20
14
19
36
19
34
19
32
19
30
19
40
20
02
20
12
20
10
20
08
20
06
20
04
19
96
20
00
19
98
19
94
19
92
19
90
19
88
19
86
19
84
19
82
19
80
19
78
19
76
19
74
19
72
19
70
19
68
19
66
19
64
19
62
19
60
19
58
19
56
19
54
19
50
19
48
19
46
19
44
19
42
19
52
19
38
1 1
13
26
Rank
Uruguay
Source: Fifa.com
Past glory... partially re-gained in 2010/2014?
Median 7.5 2 time champion
Disclaimer
This document is provided for general information only and nothing contained in the material constitutes a recommendation for the purchase or sale of any security. Although the statements of fact in this report are obtained from sources that I consider reliable, I do not guarantee their accuracy and any such information may be incomplete or condensed. Views are subject to change on the basis of additional or new research, new facts or developments.