Understanding market trends

Prof. Saša Petar, Ph.D.

Market trends - global - regional - local

Understanding

•Economics is best described as the study of humans behaving in response to having only limited resources to fulfill unlimited wants and needs. •Scarcity refers to the limited resources in an economy.

A market trend is a tendency of a market to move in particular directions over time. Market trends can be identify as a framework which characterizes price tendencies within the market when price reaches support and resistance levels, varying over time.

Information is all data we are recieveing from the market.

Information

How do we get the information on market trends?

Information

Market trend value

Knowledge is a filter which enable us to connect each information with it’s value.

Information Knowledge

What is knowledge?

Information Ignorance

Knowledge

Education Experience Knowledge Active listening

and thinking + + =

Understanding comes from filtering information through the knowledge.

Information Ignorance

What is understanding?

Information Knowledge Understanding

Misunderstanding

Market trends’ value can be recognized through the knowledge

Information Ignorance

Understanding market trends

Information Knowledge Trend value

Information

Understanding

Misunderstanding

A question for managers / leaders: •What are major trends in the world, in

your particular industry/sector and what are the implications for managing and leading?

18.12.2014.

Identify the key trends in:

• 1 Technology

• 2 Demographics

• 3 Politics

• 4 Energy

• 5 Climate

• 6 Business

Output to share: What are the top 3 trends? What challenges do these present? What opportunities do they present? What are the implications for regional and/or local trends? What are the implications for future business?

• Consolidation of mature markets

• Pressure on costs and Pressure on quality

• Increasing competition

• Emergence of new niche players (start-ups in IT sector)

• Corporations vs niche players (increased pressure on innovation)

• Global communication (global everything?)

• Increasingly educated / more sophisticated / more demanding customers/clients

• Middle class moving to China and India

Global trends

• Global trends are:

• Global resources and environment issues

• Green energy issues

• Transportation networks development

• Open markets

• Capital and labour migrations

• Social networks culture

• Conflicts between cultures and social values

• Wars inside the country limits (with no fights between the countries)

• Information in real time

Understand the trend

Listen to understand

Leaving customer(s) without regular direct contacts is a: “Ray Charles business” hoping that customer hears good things about us even if we are not in a contact “Hansel und Gretel business” hoping that customer made a trail of bread crumbs (memories / impression of our products / services quality) to find us again

To understand market and market trends, you must create and maintain the contact with the customer(s).

“dead business” when customer will not come back, “mistake business” when created customer needs provoke the competition or “zombie business” if customer will come back, asking for products / sevices we do not have, but our competition does

Selling “in the box” means that you do not know how your customer looks like. Customer without the face (information, that can give you idea what to do next) is either:

Therefore, if you do not recognize your customer next time you see him/her on the market, you might lose the idea of next trend and lose the market.

Threats in understanding market trends

1. Presuming, not asking 2. Presuming, not listening 3. One way conversation, with no feedback 4. Ignoring the information

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You/your business can a) Ignore market trend(s) b) Follow market trend(s) or c) Create market trend(s)

Markets

2011-2020 U.S.A.

China

EU

Russia and stan-countries

India / Pakistan

Middle East

South America

Africa

South-East Asia

GDP 2010: 10.700 billion USD GDP 2012: 22.539 billion USD (25% of world GDP-a) China: $12,405 billion India: $4,684 billion Russia: $2,513 billion Brazil: $2,355 billion South Africa: $582 billion

Area: 38,5 million m2 Population 2013: 2,9 milijardi (40% of world population) Next 10: Bangladesh, Indonesia, Iran, South Koreja, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philipines, Turkey and Vietnam

BRICS Brasil, India, China, Russia, South Africa

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How to capture a trend idea?

- adopt, adapt and improve -

• be sure that actual trend(s) is (are) in line with your

core business

• share ideas and knowledge in real time (internet,

social networks, etc.)

• be different and innovative • know upfront it won’t last forever

How to think “out of the box”

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CREATE MARKET TRENDS, CREATE PARTNERSHIPS WITH CUSTOMERS

• Partnerships are needed for market trends development.

• Only local competivity usually is not enough for growth and development.

• Modern technologies enable companies for cooperation in B2B and B2C markets.

Final

Thanks for your attention.

Questions?