2014 igap - assumptions and experiments

January 2014

Experiments BootcampTechniques for collaborative teams at innovative companies.

Janice Fraser

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@clevergirl

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My assumption:

You don’t want to waste your time, your career, your patience, or your friendship building something that has little chance of success.

Assumptions

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Identify assumptionsUse a sharpie and sticky notes

Work independently,

Write one idea per sticky.

Come up with 10 assumptions you have about your company.


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Divide into 2 pilesWill kill the company in the next 6 months

if we’re wrong

Everything else


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To the wall.Review & de-dupe


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Stack rank the urgents

“Which must we validate first?”


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Pick the top one

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Examples1. Many people will pay to have someone get dogfood or have odd jobs

done.

2. People want to run errands like getting dogfood.

3. We believe it is legal in the country of operation

4. This service is useful for disorganized people.

5. This service is useful to time-poor people.

6.

7.

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Things To Note Broad ideation helps us find the best thoughts.

For fast ideation have a specific prompt, work independently, use paper and pen, set a time limit, and define a number of ideas to create.

Ideation applies to many logical thought processes, not just identifying features.

Ideation must be followed by efficient decision-making.

Arbitrary decisions are necessary when you have little or no data.

For best results, do ideation with multiple people.

Multi-person ideation relieves pressure for anyone to be a “genius”.

Independent ideation, followed by group understanding, followed by fast decision-making is a uniquely efficient pattern of work.

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Experiment Framework

3 parts: 1. Hypothesis that is provable/disprovable2. The experiment itself; the thing you build 3. An indicator of result

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Experiment FrameworkEvery experiment has three parts:

1. A hypothesis that is provable/disprovable2. The experiment itself; the thing you build 3. An indicator of result

For Example:

We believe people like [customer type] have a need for [need/action/behavior].

The smallest thing we can do to prove that need is [experiment].

We will know we have succeeded when [quantitative/measurable outcome] or [qualitative/observable outcome].


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State the assumption as a hypothesis

You must be able to prove or disprove this.


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Design an experiment to learn if this is true.

Briefly describe it, using the three parts.

State how you will know if the hypothesis is valid or invalid. This can be quantitative evidence or qualitative. How much time/money/effort will it take?


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On a fresh sheet,redesign the experimentWhat would you do to get approximately the same learning...IN 2 DAYS?IN 2 WEEKS?IN 2 MONTHS?


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Discuss, then pick the experiment to run.

we believe that ________________

__________________________________

__________________________________

__________________________________

__________________________________

__________________________________

__________________________________

____________ in 2 days.


__________________________________

__________________________________

__________________________________

__________________________________

__________________________________

__________________________________

____________ in 2 weeks.


__________________________________

__________________________________

__________________________________

__________________________________

__________________________________

__________________________________

____________ in 2 months.

✔

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More Things To NoteProgress not a function of the quality, size, or # of releases.

Smallification can be done by adjusting scope or fidelity.

Smaller/faster experiments are usually better. Behavioral experiments are usually better. Small, behavioral experiments are usually best.

Founders must balance size/quality and speed of learning.

The best option is often not obvious.

There is usually insufficient data to make a rational decision The decision-maker is therefore often going to be wrong. Wrong decisions are expected and usually not fatal.

Progress is measured in sequential cycles of learning.

2014 igap - assumptions and experiments

Business