2013 producer meeting
DESCRIPTION
TRANSCRIPT
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2013 Producer Meeting
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Risk Management In An Uncertain Environment
January 25th 2013 HLC/ AgQuest Producer Meeting
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Todays agenda includes: 8:50-9:00- Ben Fast-County Executive Director-Disaster Payment 9:00-9:25-Kurt Legred- CHS- broad range of markets 9:25-9:35-Dennis Schreier-General Manager 9:35-10:50-Kevin, Joel, Mark, Steve- Scenarios, Matrix, Marketing prices & local Yields-Bull, Neutral, & Bearish Scenarios 10:50-11:10- Lynn Button- Insurance Quoting Software continuing on from Joel’s examples & numbers on how insurance minimizes lost members including insurance cost, insurance indemnity during the bull, neutral, & bearish scenarios 11:10-11:40- Marty Bonnell- Petroleum- Brams Engineering LLC-Senior Civil Engineer 11:40-12:00-Tim Lewis-Agribusiness Farm Insurance Specialist, Certified Insurance Counselor, Master Farm Certified
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Ben Fast-FSA County Executive Director (CED)
USDA Farm Service Agency
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This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
CHS Hedging
January 25th, 2013
Harvest Land
Kurt Legred
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This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Grain Trade has become a Global Exercise
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This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
CRB- old and new
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This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Reuters CRB Index
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This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Weekly Continuous Commodity Index
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This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Weekly Baltic Dry Freight Index
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This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Weekly U.S. Dollar Index
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This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Monthly U.S. Dollar Index
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This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Weekly Crude Oil Futures on CME
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This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Monthly Crude Oil Futures on the CME
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This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
US Corn
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This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
• USDA raised the planted acres……lowered harvested acres slightly
• The yield was raised 1.1 bushel per acre…..
• Feed & Residual saw a healthy 300 million bushel increase while exports were reduced 200 million bushels
• 2012-13 exports are down 593 million bushels from 2011-12 marketing year
• Ending stocks are at 602 million bushels, down 45 million bushels
Corn Outlook
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This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Estimate
00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13
Planted Acres 79.6 75.7 78.9 78.6 80.9 81.8 78.3 93.5 86.0 86.4 88.2 91.9 97.2
Harvested Acres 72.4 68.8 69.3 70.9 73.6 75.1 70.6 86.5 78.6 79.5 81.4 84.0 87.4
Yield 136.9 138.2 129.3 142.2 160.4 148.0 149.1 150.7 153.9 164.7 152.8 147.2 123.4
Sep 1 Stocks 1,718 1,899 1,596 1,087 958 2,114 1,967 1,304 1,624 1,673 1,708 1,128 989
Production 9,915 9,503 8,967 10,089 11,807 11,114 10,535 13,038 12,092 13,092 12,447 12,360 10,780
Imports 7 10 14 14 11 9 12 20 14 8 28 29 100
Total Supply 11,639 11,412 10,578 11,190 12,776 13,237 12,514 14,362 13,729 14,774 14,182 13,516 11,869
Domestic Use 7,799 7,911 7,903 8,332 8,444 9,122 9,086 10,302 10,198 11,079 11,220 10,985 10,317
Exports 1,941 1,905 1,588 1,900 1,818 2,147 2,125 2,436 1,858 1,987 1,835 1,543 950
Ethanol 628 706 996 1,168 1,323 1,603 2,117 3,026 3,677 4,568 5,021 5,011 4,500
Total Use 9,740 9,815 9,491 10,232 10,662 11,270 11,210 12,737 12,056 13,066 13,055 12,527 11,267
Aug 31 Carryout 1,899 1,596 1,087 958 2,114 1,967 1,304 1,624 1,673 1,708 1,128 989 602
Stocks to Use 19.5% 16.3% 11.5% 9.4% 19.8% 17.5% 11.6% 12.8% 13.9% 13.1% 8.6% 7.9% 5.3%
US Corn Supply/Demand Balance Table
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This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
![Page 22: 2013 producer meeting](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051816/5464572eb4af9f3f3f8b493a/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
![Page 23: 2013 producer meeting](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051816/5464572eb4af9f3f3f8b493a/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
79.6 75.7
78.9 78.6 80.9 81.8
78.3
93.5
86.0 86.4 88.291.9
97.2
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10/11 11-12 12-13
Mil
ion
Ac
res
Year
US Corn Planted Acres
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This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
72.4 68.8 69.3 70.9
73.6 75.1 70.6
86.5
78.6 79.5
81.4 84.0
87.4
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10/11 11-12 12-13 E
Mil
lio
n A
cre
s
Year
US Corn Harvested Acres
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This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
136.9
138.2
129.3
142.2
160.4
148.0
149.1
150.7
153.9
164.7
152.8
147.2
123.4
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10/11 11-12 12-13 E
Bu
sh
els
Pe
r A
cre
Year
US Corn Yield
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This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
9915 9503 8967 10089
11807 11114
10535
13038
12092
13092 12447 12360
10780
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10/11 11-12 12-13 E
Mil
lio
n B
us
he
ls
Year
US Corn Production
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This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
1957 2047 2340
2537 2686
2981
3488
4363
4953
5939
6428 6437
5867
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10/11 11-12 12-13 E
Mil
lio
n B
us
he
ls
Year
US Corn FSI Usage
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This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
5842 5864 5563
5795 6158 6141
5598
5938
5246 5140 4793
4548 4450
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10/11 11-12 12-13 E
Mil
lio
n B
us
he
ls
Year
US Corn Feed Usage
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This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
7799 7911 7903 8332
8844 9122 9086
10302 10198
11079 11220 10985
10317
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10/11 11-12 12-13 E
Mil
lio
n B
us
he
ls
Year
US Corn Domestic Use
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This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
1941 1905
1588
1900 1818
2147 2125
2436
1858 1987
1835
1543
950
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10/11 11-12E 12-13 E
Mil
lio
n B
us
he
ls
Year
US Corn Exports
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This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
628 706
995 1168 1323
1603
2117
3026
3677
4568
5021 5011
4500
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10/11 11-12 12-13 E
Mil
lio
n B
us
he
ls
Year
US Corn Used For Ethanol
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This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
1899
1596
1087 958
2114
1967
1304
1624 1673 1708
1128
989
602
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10/11 11-12 12-13 E
Mil
lio
n B
us
he
ls
Year
US Corn Ending Stocks
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This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
19.5%
16.3%
11.5%
9.4%
19.8%
17.5%
11.6%12.8%
13.9%
13.1%
8.6%7.9%
5.3%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10/11 11-12 12-13 E
Pe
rce
nt
Year
US Corn Stocks To Use Ratio
![Page 34: 2013 producer meeting](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051816/5464572eb4af9f3f3f8b493a/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
• World production was increased 3.21 million tonnes to 852.30 million tonnes
• Brazil production was increased 1.0 million tonnes to 71.0 million tonnes
• FSU corn production was reduced ½ a million to 31.76 million tonnes
• World ending stocks were lowered 1.62 million tonnes
World Corn Outlook
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This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
589 599 602623
713 697 712
792 799819 832
884
852
171148
125104
131 125 109130 149 144 127 132 116
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 E
Millio
n T
on
ne
s
Year
World Corn Production & Ending Stocks
![Page 36: 2013 producer meeting](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051816/5464572eb4af9f3f3f8b493a/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
19%
18%
15% 15%13%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 E
World Corn Stocks to Use
![Page 37: 2013 producer meeting](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051816/5464572eb4af9f3f3f8b493a/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
106.0 114.0
121.3 115.8
130.3 139.4
151.6 152.3
165.9 164.0
177.3
192.8
208.0
7.3 8.6 15.2
7.6 7.6 3.7 5.3 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 E
Millio
n T
on
nes
Year
China Corn Production & Exports
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15.4 14.7
15.5 15.0
20.5
15.8
22.5 22.0
15.5
23.3
25.2
21.0
28.0
9.7 10.8 11.2 10.9
14.6
9.5
15.3 14.8
10.3
16.5 16.4 17.5
19.5
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 E
Mil
lio
n T
on
ne
s
Year
Argentine Corn Production & Exports
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41.5
35.5
47.6
42.8
35.0
41.7
51.0
58.6
51.0
56.1 57.4
73.0 71.0
6.5
1.9 5.2 4.1
0.7
4.5
10.8 7.8 7.1
11.6 8.4
21.5
17.5
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 E
Mil
lio
n T
on
ne
s
Year
Brazil Corn Production & Exports
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8.0
10.1 9.7 9.7
11.7
6.9 7.3
13.2 12.6
13.4
10.9
12.4
13.5
1.3 1.1 1.1 0.7
2.1
0.6 0.5
2.2 1.7
2.1 2.5
2.0 2.5
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
00-01 01-02 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 07-08 08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 E
Millio
n T
on
nes
Year
South Africa Corn Production & Exports
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4420
4440
4460
4480
4500
4520
4540
4560
4580
4600
4620Se
p 0
7
Sep
14
Sep
21
Sep
28
Oct
05
Oct
12
Oct
19
Oct
26
No
v 0
2
No
v 0
9
No
v 1
6
No
v 2
3
No
v 3
0
De
c 0
7
De
c 1
4
De
c 2
1
De
c 2
8
Jan
04
mb
co
rn u
se
USDA est.
Annual Corn Use Implied by Weekly Ethanol Production
Cumulative average is at 4541 mb.
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CBOT July 1996 Corn Futures versus CBOT December 1996 Corn Futures
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CME July 2013 Corn Futures versus Dec. 2013 Corn Futures
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CME Nearby Monthly Corn Futures
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CME March 2013 Corn Futures
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CME July 2013 Corn Futures
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CME December 2013 Corn Futures
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Soybeans
• WORLD SUPPLY/DEMAND
• US BALANCE SHEET
• PRICES
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World Situation
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Local Marketing Years
April 1, 2013
March 31, 2014
September 1, 2012
August 31, 2013
Feb. 1, 2013
Jan. 31, 2014
U.S.
Argentina
Brazil
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World Soybean Stocks
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
mm
t
Exporter Stocks- LocalMarketing Years
World Stocks
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Brazil & Argentina Ending Stocks Local Marketing Years
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
mm
t
Argentina
Brazil Local marketing years ending
early 2013
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Stocks/Use
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%Exporters Stocks/Use- Local World Aggregate
MY ended fall 2013 U.S.,
and spring 2014 S.A.
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Stocks-to-Use Ratio Local Marketing Year
Any additional production losses will come
out of use in Brazil; Argentina could maintain
current export projection without making a
new low in the ratio.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%Argentina Brazil
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Area Harvested
13.0 12.9 13.6 13.9
16.4
18.4
21.522.9 22.2
20.7 21.3 21.723.5 24.2
25.0
27.5
7.08.2 8.6
10.411.4
12.614.0 14.4
15.216.3 16.4 16.0
18.6 18.3 17.619.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
mill
ion
ha
Brazil Argentina
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Soybean Yield
36.035.2
34.434.1
32.6
31.0
26.9
41.7
36.436.7
39.739.1
41.9
35.1
40.339.6
44.5
42.0
29.7
43.6
39.8
33.9
41.2
24.0
29.6
31.532.1
33.032.8
34.4
37.236.1
37.9
42.2
39.6
41.9
35.234.4
38.1
42.442.6
39.6
43.7
46.3
39.6
44.6
24
29
34
39
44
491
990
/91
19
91/9
2
19
92/9
3
19
93/9
4
19
94/9
5
19
95/9
6
19
96/9
7
19
97/9
8
19
98/9
9
19
99/0
0
20
00/0
1
20
01/0
2
20
02/0
3
20
03/0
4
20
04/0
5
20
05/0
6
20
06/0
7
20
07/0
8
20
08/0
9
20
09/1
0
20
10/1
1
20
11/1
2
20
12/1
3
bp
a
Argentina Brazil Linear (Argentina) Linear (Brazil)
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Production: Brazil & Argentina
Crop estimates are coming in as low as
45 mmt for Argentina and 65 mmt for
Brazil.
39.5 43.5 52.0 51.0 53.0 57.0 59.0 61.0 57.869.0 75.3 66.5
82.527.8
30.035.5 33.0
39.0 40.548.8 46.2
32.0
54.5 49.0
40.1
54.0
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
mm
t
Brazil Argentina
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World Import Demand
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
19
90/9
1
19
91/9
2
19
92/9
3
19
93/9
4
19
94/9
5
19
95/9
6
19
96/9
7
19
97/9
8
19
98/9
9
19
99/0
0
20
00/0
1
20
01/0
2
20
02/0
3
20
03/0
4
20
04/0
5
20
05/0
6
20
06/0
7
20
07/0
8
20
08/0
9
20
09/1
0
20
10/1
1
20
11/1
2
20
12/1
3
mm
tr
Rest of World China
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Chinese Crush Margins
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
CN
Y/t
on
ne
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Chinese Soybean Imports
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
mm
t
2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
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Brazil Soybean Exports
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
mm
t
2011
2012
2013
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U.S. Balance Sheet
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100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170m
b2009/10 2010/11
2011/12 2012/13
NOPA Crush
Unadjusted for April 2011
membership change
December was up 10% y/y.
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Quarterly Crush
442459 467
420445 443
412
451
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13
mb
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Y/Y Assumptions:
Q1 +10%
Q2+2%
Q3 -7%
Q4 -28%
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0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
mill
ion
bu
she
ls
2008/09 2009/102010/11 2011/122012/13
U.S. Bean Export Commitments
12/13 exports were unchanged at
1,345 mb.
![Page 68: 2013 producer meeting](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051816/5464572eb4af9f3f3f8b493a/html5/thumbnails/68.jpg)
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%2012/13
5-yr average
Export Commitments: % of Final Soybeans
1,345 is consistent with the pace from
2010/11.
![Page 69: 2013 producer meeting](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051816/5464572eb4af9f3f3f8b493a/html5/thumbnails/69.jpg)
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
2012/13 5-yr avg.
Export Commitments: % of Final Soybean Oil
Oil exports were raised by 350 million
pounds. Commitments are now 69% of
the projected total, ahead of the average
of 39% for this date.
![Page 70: 2013 producer meeting](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051816/5464572eb4af9f3f3f8b493a/html5/thumbnails/70.jpg)
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
2012/13 5-yr avg
Export Commitments: % of Final Soybean Meal
Meal export s were unchanged on the
January report.
![Page 71: 2013 producer meeting](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051816/5464572eb4af9f3f3f8b493a/html5/thumbnails/71.jpg)
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Source: U of Illinois
![Page 72: 2013 producer meeting](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051816/5464572eb4af9f3f3f8b493a/html5/thumbnails/72.jpg)
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Source: U of Illinois, OPIS
![Page 73: 2013 producer meeting](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051816/5464572eb4af9f3f3f8b493a/html5/thumbnails/73.jpg)
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
mill
ion
po
un
ds
Soyoil use for biodiesel
Estimate of soyoil use required to meet RFS2 biodiesel mandate (calendaryear)
Soy Oil Use
If biodiesel production is 1.83
billion gallons, calendar 2013 soy
oil use is estimated at 6,241
![Page 74: 2013 producer meeting](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051816/5464572eb4af9f3f3f8b493a/html5/thumbnails/74.jpg)
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Soy Oil 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13
Beginning Stocks 3009 3084 2485 2862 3406 2425 2542
Production 20490 20580 18746 19615 18887 19740 18700
Imports 37 66 90 104 159 150 351
Total Supply 23537 23731 21321 22580 22452 22315 21592
Exports 1876 2910 2194 3360 3232 1464 2150
Soyoil use for biodiesel 2762 3245 2022 1680 2736 4901 4901
Food Use 15814 15091 14244 14134 14059 13409 13001Total Domestic Use 18576 18336 16266 15814 16795 18309 17902
Ending Stocks 3084 2485 2862 3406 2425 2542 1541Stocks/Use 17% 14% 18% 22% 14% 14% 9%
Limited room for an 2000 million lb.
increase in bio. use
![Page 75: 2013 producer meeting](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051816/5464572eb4af9f3f3f8b493a/html5/thumbnails/75.jpg)
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
October to March Soybean/Corn Ratio
1.75
1.85
1.95
2.05
2.15
2.25
2.35
2.45
2.55
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
![Page 76: 2013 producer meeting](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051816/5464572eb4af9f3f3f8b493a/html5/thumbnails/76.jpg)
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
New-Crop Soybean/Corn Ratio
1.9
2
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
October November December January February March
2012
2013
2008-2012 avg
![Page 77: 2013 producer meeting](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051816/5464572eb4af9f3f3f8b493a/html5/thumbnails/77.jpg)
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Price and Acre Ratios
2004
2008
2006
2007
20052009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0.5
0.55
0.6
0.65
0.7
0.75
0.8
0.85
0.9
0.95
1
1.8 1.9 2 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5
soy/
corn
acr
es
soy/corn price
2013 at 98 corn and
78 beans
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This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
U.S. Soybean Supply/Demand Jan. 11 USDA Jan. 11 USDA Jan. est. Jan. est.
2011/12 2012/13 2012/13 2013/14
Planted Acres 75.0 77.2 77.2 78.0
Harvested Acres 73.8 76.1 76.1 76.4
Yield 41.9 39.6 39.6 43.4
Beginning Stocks 215 169 169 135
Production 3,094 3,015 3,015 3,317
Imports 16 20 20 15
Total Supply 3,325 3,204 3,204 3,467
Crush 1,703 1,605 1,606 1,675
Exports 1,362 1,345 1,370 1,450
Seed 90 89 89 89
Residual 1 30 5 25
Total Usage 3,155 3,070 3,070 3,239
Ending Stocks 169 135 135 228
Stocks/Use Ratio 5.4% 4.4% 4.4% 7.0%
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This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Prices
![Page 80: 2013 producer meeting](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051816/5464572eb4af9f3f3f8b493a/html5/thumbnails/80.jpg)
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
CME March 2013 Soybeans Weekly
![Page 81: 2013 producer meeting](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051816/5464572eb4af9f3f3f8b493a/html5/thumbnails/81.jpg)
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
CME Nov 2013 Soybeans Weekly
![Page 82: 2013 producer meeting](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051816/5464572eb4af9f3f3f8b493a/html5/thumbnails/82.jpg)
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
CME Nearby Monthly CME Soybean Futures
![Page 83: 2013 producer meeting](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051816/5464572eb4af9f3f3f8b493a/html5/thumbnails/83.jpg)
This material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Hedging Inc. and should be considered a solicitation. The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options. CHS Hedging Inc. bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Hedging Inc. personnel.
Dec. 1 Soybean Stocks % On-Farm
46%
48%
44%
47% 47%
51%52%
54%
53%
54% 54%55%
49%
56%
54% 54%
48%
52% 53%
48% 48%
46%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
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Marketing Scenarios
• Kevin Deberg-Grain Manger
• Joel Heiling-Account Manager
• Steve Bach-Business Relationship Manger
• Mark Kubesh-Business Relationship Manger
• Lynn Button-VP of AgQuest Insurance
The following information is subject to change at anytime. Harvest Land Cooperative makes no representation or warranty regarding the correctness of any information contained herein, or the appropriateness of any transaction for any person. There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options.
![Page 85: 2013 producer meeting](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051816/5464572eb4af9f3f3f8b493a/html5/thumbnails/85.jpg)
Jan 8, 2013
CORN YIELD AFFECT SOYBEANS YIELD AFFECT
Trend Below Above Trend Below Above
Planted Acres 100.0 100.0 100.0 Planted Acres 77.0 77.0 77.0
Harvested Acres 93.0 93.0 93.0 Harvested Acres 76.0 76.0 76.0
Yield 158 148 168 Yield 43 41 45
Total Crop 14694 13764 15624 Total Crop 3268 3116 3420
Carry In 602.0 602.0 602.0 Carry In 135.0 135.0 135.0
Total Supply 15296.0 14366.0 16226.0 Total Supply 3403.0 3251.0 3555.0
Usage 12750.0 12750.0 12750.0 Usage 3250.0 3250.0 3250.0
Carry Out 14 2546.0 1616.0 3476.0 Carry Out 14 153 1 305
ACRES PLANTED
CROP YEAR CORN BEANS TOTAL WHEAT C,B,&W COTTON C.B.W.& C.
2005 81.8 72.1 153.9 57.2 211.1
2006 78.3 75.5 153.8 57.3 211.1
2007 93.5 64.7 158.2 60.4 218.6
2008 86 75.7 161 63.2 224.2
2009 86.5 77.5 164 59.1 223.1 7.56 230.66
2010 88.2 77.4 165.6 53.6 219.2 10.7 229.9
2011 91.9 75 166.9 54.4 221.3 14.7 236
2012 96.9 77.2 174.1 55.7 229.8 12.4 242.2
2013 - est. 100 77 177 57 234 10 244
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CORN ACRES 2013 CORN ACREAGE AFFECT
TREND BELOW ABOVE
• Planted Acres 100.0 100.0 100.0
• Harvested Acres 93.0 93.0 93.0
• Yield 158.0 148.0 168.0
• Total Crop 14694 13764 15624
• Carry In 602 602 602
• Total Supply 15296 14366 16226
• Usage 12750 12750 12750
• Carry Out 2014 2546 1616 3476
• Proj. $ / bu. 5.50 6.50 3.50
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PLANTED ACRES 2013
SOYBEAN ACREAGE AFFECT
TREND BELOW ABOVE • Planted Acres 77.0 77.0 77.0
• Harvested Acres 76.0 76.0 76.0
• Yield 43.0 41.0 45.0
• Total Crop 3268 3116 3420
• Carry In 135 135 135
• Total Supply 3403 3251 3555
• Usage 3250 3250 3250
• Carry Out 2014 153 1 305 • Proj. $ / bu. 13.50 16.00 11.00
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Cash price ranges for corn and soybeans
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Cash Corn Price $2.80 - $4.37 $2.61 - $7.05 $2.76 - $4.12 $3.01 - $5.79 $5.45 - $7.57 $5.65 - $8.06
Range $1.57 $4.44 $1.36 $2.78 $2.12 $2.41
Cash Beans Price $5.94 - $11.50 $7.36 - $15.25 $8.09 - $11.96 $8.60 - $13.38 $10.50 - $13.87 $10.98 - $17.64
Range $5.56 $7.89 $3.87 $4.78 $3.37 $6.66
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2013 Insurance Information
AgQuest Insurance is an Equal Opportunity Provider
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Dry Pea/Dry Bean
New for 2013
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Program Overview
• Revenue coverage for pulse crops will operate identically to the Revenue coverage available for other crops.
• The concept: • Use alternative methods to determine “projected”
and “harvest” prices. • Without a futures market for pulse crops, the prices
will be established using statistically tested data from industry stakeholders and governmental agencies to publish the projected and harvest
prices. • Otherwise, the product is identical to the coverage
offered by existing Combo Revenue plans.
![Page 96: 2013 producer meeting](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051816/5464572eb4af9f3f3f8b493a/html5/thumbnails/96.jpg)
Price Determination • To calculate the projected price:
• On or before February 15 of the crop year the offer price and expected contract volume will be
collected. • The volume and prices will be used to calculate a
weighted average projected price.
• To calculate the harvest price: • The dry pea harvest price will utilize an average
price from the USADPLC check-off assessment data set. The dry bean harvest price will use an average
price from AMS Bean Market News.
![Page 97: 2013 producer meeting](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051816/5464572eb4af9f3f3f8b493a/html5/thumbnails/97.jpg)
Dry Pea Pilot
• The Dry Pea Revenue Endorsement is available for the following types:
• Green/yellow peas • Lentils
• Large Kabuli Chickpeas • Small Kabuli Chickpeas
![Page 98: 2013 producer meeting](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051816/5464572eb4af9f3f3f8b493a/html5/thumbnails/98.jpg)
Pilot – Dry Pea Revenue - Availability
© 2
01
2 N
CIS
D
RA
FT
98
Plans 01, 02, and 03
Coverage is offered to all counties where spring dry pea yield coverage is available in Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, and Washington.
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Dry Bean Pilot
• The Dry Bean Revenue Endorsement is available for the following types:
• Black Beans • Dark Red Kidney Beans • Pea (Navy) Beans
• Pinto Beans
• Revenue Policy RP • HP Exclusion
• YP bushel guarantee
![Page 100: 2013 producer meeting](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022051816/5464572eb4af9f3f3f8b493a/html5/thumbnails/100.jpg)
Coverage levels 50-75 % in 5% increments Optional and Basic units only -- No Enterprise units Quality adjustments limited to US#3 Establishing Prices for projected price and Harvest price Northarvest Bean Growers Association & AMS Bean market News Establish projected price by Feb 15 and will be out no later than March 3 Harvest Price – track sales from Sept 1 – date closest to November 30 and will be out no later than December 15 Harvest Price can be no greater than 1.5 higher than projected
Dry Bean
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Dry Bean Pilot • Coverage is offered to all counties where spring dry bean
yield coverage is available in North Dakota and Minnesota.
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Program Example • Identically to the Combo revenue product, start by
calculating the Expected Revenue:
• Exp Rev = Approved Yield * Projected Price
$448/ac = 14 cwt./ac * $32.00/cwt.
• The Guarantee is calculated as the product of the Expected Revenue, Coverage Level, and Share:
• Guarantee = Exp Revenue * Coverage Level* Share
$336/ac = $448/ac * 75% * 100%
• Assume the following:
• Actual yield: 11 cwt./ac
• Harvest price: $20/cwt.
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Program Example
• Revenue to Count is calculated identical to Combo Revenue Protection program:
• Rev to Count = Actual Yield * Harvest Price
$220/ac = 11 cwt./ac * $20.00/cwt
• Indemnity is calculated as Guarantee less Revenue to Count:
• Indemnity = max (0, Guarantee – Rev to Count)
$116/ac = $336/ac - $220/ac
Please note: The producer would have received no indemnity at the 75% coverage level under Yield (APH) coverage plan.
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Actual Production History (APH)
• Actual production history minimum 4 years up to 10 years for insured unit
• Added land will get the higher of the County T-yield or Simple average of the existing
• Added Land -
• less than 640 cropland acres
• Simple Average (SA) or T-Yield or Variable T-yield (whichever is higher)
• 640 and less than 2,000 cropland acres
• Variable T-yield or request to RO to use the Simple Average (SA) T-yield
• Greater than or equal to 2,000 cropland acres
• Variable T-yields apply only
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•Eligibility:
• Must have at least 1 actual yield in 1 of most recent 4 crop years.
• If database contains < 4 actual yields in the 12 most recent crop years the trend adjustments are prorated as follows:
• 4 years = 100% of TA
• 3 years = 75% of TA
• 2 years = 50% of TA
• 1 Year = 25% of TA
• Elect by Sales Closing Date
• Available on Buy-up policies only – excludes CAT policies
• Corn and Soybeans only
• Corn for Silage, Specialty Soybeans and Organic crops are excluded
Trend-Adjusted APH (TA)
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TA Example
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Unit Structure
• Optional – Subdivided basic unit
• Reporting and keeping production separate section by
section
• Enterprise – Crops
• All acres of the insured crop in the county in which insured
has a share
• 2 or more basic or optional units of crop located in 2 or more section, 20 Acres or 20% of insured crop acreage
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Optional/Enterprise Unit Example
TA 190
2 3 TA 190 TA 190
# 1 $12,960 @ 85% = $77,760 # 2 $12,960 @ 85% = $77,760 # 3 $12,960 @ 85% = $77,760
OU = 3 insurance guarantees Subsidy @ 85% $33.00 Insured Cost $53.84 / ac
EU = All crop/county = 1 Guar. Subsidy @ 85% $37.50 Insured Cost $33.28 / ac
#1, #2, and #3 = $38,800 bu Guar. @ $6.00 = $232,800 Rev. Guar.
80 acres 80 acres 80 acres
1
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Enterprise Plus Example
1
TA 190
2 3
TA 190 TA 190
# 1 $12,960 @ 85% = $77,760 # 2 $12,960 @ 85% = $77,760 # 3 $12,960 @ 85% = $77,760
$38,800 bu. Guar. $232,800 rev. guarantee
80 acres 80 acres 80 acres
2 3 1 190 190 190
@ 80% E+
$72,960 $72,960 $72,960
152 bu. Gty. 152 bu. Gty. 152 bu. Gty.
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Enterprise Plus Example
• 140 Harvest Bushels
• X 7.50 Harvest Price
• 152 – 140 = 12 bu.
12 X $7.50 = $90 Claim
• Up to 10 on E+ Optional Units
• Cannot have Enterprise policy loss
• If, EU policy has payout then NO E+ payout
• 5% less Coverage on E +
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2013 Subsidy Levels
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Reduced Premium Rates
• 5 – 10% Corn reduction / level based
• 4 – 10 % Soybean reduction / level based
• Moved to a 20 year rating instead 30-36 year
• Adjustment of pre 1995 losses agronomic differences
• Use of weather data adjust premium rates
• Higher factor based on last 5 years closer to current crop
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Producer:
Crop: CORN
Year: 2013
County:
Underwriting Company: NAU
228 Modified APH
APH 190
Coverage level 85%
Bushel gty 161.5
Coverage Price $6.00 (See Spring Prices below)
Coverage $969.00
190 APH
Production Hail Plan 1.2 (1.0 or 1.1, 1.15, 1.2)
Modified APH 228
less guaranteed bu 161.5
Hail bushels covered 66.5
RP, YP price $6.00
Dollars of Hail Coverage $399.00 161.5 MPCI Bushel Gty
Production Plan Rate $3.40 (See "Rate Factors" tab)
Cost of Hail (Coverage/Acre) $13.57
Total Acres Covered
Total Cost Per Crop $0.00
0
Spring Base Prices: (RP)
Corn $6.00
Soybeans $13.00
PROGRAM HIGHLIGHTS:
1) Losses are based on the harvested bushels vs. the adjusted % loss (spot losses)
Loss Example:
Agreed percentage of loss = 10% (Attributed to hail)
Modified APH (from above) = 228 x 10% = 22.8 Adjusted bu/acre loss
Assuming a harvested yield of 205.2 or less, the loss payment will be -------->####
If, however, harvested bushels = 216.6 The amount of loss payment =68.40$ (Modified APH minus harvested bu. times spring price)
Production Hail Coverage-NAU
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Production Hail Coverage-NAU Producer:
Crop: SOYBEANS
Year: 2013
County:
Underwriting Company: NAU
62.4 Modified APH
APH 52
Coverage level 85%
Bushel gty 44.2
Coverage Price $13.00 (See Spring Prices below)
Coverage $574.60
52 APH
Production Hail Plan 1.2 (1.0 or 1.1, 1.15 or 1.2)
Modified APH 62.4
less guaranteed bu 44.2
Hail bushels covered 18.2
RP, YP price $13.00
Dollars of Hail Coverage $236.60 44.2 MPCI Bushel Gty
Production Plan Rate $7.45 (See "Rate Factors" tab)
Cost of Hail (Coverage/Acre) $17.63
Total Acres Covered
Total Cost Per Crop $0.00
0
Spring Base Prices: (RP)
Corn $6.00
Soybeans $13.00
PROGRAM HIGHLIGHTS:
1) Losses are based on the harvested bushels vs. the adjusted % loss (spot losses)
Loss Example:
Agreed percentage of loss = 10% (Attributed to hail)
Modified APH (from above) = 62.4 x 10% = 6.24 Adjusted bu/acre loss
Assuming a harvested yield of 56.16 or less, the loss payment will be -------->####
If, however, harvested bushels = 59.28 The amount of loss payment =40.56$ (Modified APH minus harvested bu. times spring price)
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Wind, Freeze – Sugar Beets
•Wind, Freeze and Soil Crusting Coverage • Endorsement to the Hail Policy with a 5% deductible
• Provides growers to start planting April 1st or initial planting of April 10th
• Purchase Dollar coverage same as hail.
• Wind Freeze Stages
April 1 – April 28 Stage 1 33.3%
April 29 – May 25 Stage 2 66.7%
May 26 – August 15 Stage 3 100 %
August 16 - September 10 Stage 4 66.7%
September 11 – September 30 Stage 5 33.3%
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Spill Prevention Control Countermeasure
Regulation 40 CFR 112
Presented by Martin Bonnell, PE
January 25, 2013
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PRESENTATION
OVERVIEW • Introductions
• Who needs a SPCC Plan & what is covered?
• State and Federal Regulations
• How is a SPCC Plan used and maintained?
• What to do in the event of a product spill
• Questions & Discussion
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Who Needs a SPCC Plan
• Owners or operators of petroleum facilities that have
discharged or, due to their location, could reasonably be
expected to discharge oil in harmful quantities into or upon
the navigable waters of the United States or adjoining
shorelines to prepare, in writing, an SPCC Plan.
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SPCC REQUIREMENTS
• If the facility total aboveground storage in tanks or
containers is > 1,320 gallons and/or > 42K gal underground
storage (not 280/281 exempt)
• It’s a non-transportation related facility (see 40 CFR Part
112 Appendices A & B)
• And there is a reasonable chance of a discharge to waters
of the U.S. or adjoining shorelines
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DEFINITIONS
• Oil
• Includes oil of any kind or in any form including, but not limited
to:
• Petroleum and fuel oils (gasoline, diesel, lube oils, aviation
gasoline, naphtha, mineral spirits, etc.)
• Sludge
• Synthetic oils
• Created by chemical synthesis
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DEFINITIONS
• Oil (cont’d)
• Oil refuse
• Oil mixed with wastes other than dredged spoil
• Animal fats, oils & greases
• Vegetable oils
• Mineral oils
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DENATURED ETHANOL
• Denatured ethanol tanks are considered oil storage
containers if the denaturant is an oil such as refined gasoline
or natural gasoline
• Shell capacity of tank used as storage capacity
• These facilities may be subject to the SPCC & FRP
requirements
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NON-TRANSPORTATION-
RELATED FACILITIES
• Industrial, commercial, agricultural, or public facilities which
use, store, drill for, produce, gather, process, refine or
consumer oil or oil products
• Waste treatment facilities or part thereof
• Pipeline systems, highway vehicles & railroad cars used to
transport oil exclusively within a facility
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EPA Regulates:
• Railroad cars after the transportation process ends and
when they are operated as non-transportation-related
storage at an SPCC regulated facility
DOT Regulates:
• Railroad cars from the time the oil is offered for
transportation to a carrier until the time it reaches its
destination and is accepted by the consignee
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“REASONAL EXPECTATION” OF
DISCHARGE • The determination must be based solely upon consideration
of the geographical & locational aspects of the facility
• Exclude manmade features such as dikes, equipment or
other features which would restrain, hinder, contain or
otherwise prevent a discharge as described in §112.1(b)
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“REASONAL EXPECTATION”
(CONT.) • Factors to consider:
• Whether a past discharge of oil reached a navigable water or
adjoining shoreline;
• Whether the facility is adjacent to navigable waters or adjoining
shoreline;
• On-site conduits, such as sewer lines, storm sewers, certain
underground features (e.g., power or cable lines, or
groundwater);
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“REASONAL EXPECTATION”
(CONT.) • Factors to consider:
• Unique geological or geographic features;
• Whether the facility is near a watercourse & intervening natural
drainage;
• Whether precipitation runoff could transport oil into navigable
waters;
• The quantity & nature of oil stored
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STORAGE CAPACITY
THRESHOLDS
• IF it meets the other applicable criteria set forth in §112.1,
the SPCC rule applies to a facility with:
• > 1,320 gallons of aggregate aboveground oil storage capacity,
or
• > 42,000 gallons of completely buried oil storage capacity
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STORAGE CAPACITY
Included in storage capacity
• Capacity of containers (e.g., bulk storage containers, oil-filled equipment, mobile/portable containers, etc.) with a capacity of 55 gallons or greater
Excluded from storage capacity
• Capacity of completely buried tanks & associated underground piping, ancillary equipment & containment systems that are subject to all technical requirements of 40 CFR part 280 or 281
• Capacity of tanks used exclusively for wastewater treatment
• Capacity of containers that are permanently closed
• Motive power containers
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DEFINITION OF STORAGE
CAPACITY
• “Storage capacity” is defined in §112.2 as the shell capacity of
a container
• Generally, the shell capacity is the rated design capacity
rather than the working/operational capacity
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DEFINITION OF “PERMANENTLY
CLOSED” • For a tank to be “permanently closed”, the facility must do
the following:
• Remove all liquid & sludge from each container & connecting
line
• Disconnect & blank off all connecting lines & piping
• Close & lock all valves (except ventilation valves)
• Pose a conspicuous sign on each container stating it is
permanently closed with the date of closing
• Tanks can remain on site, but they are not included in the
total storage capacity
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SPCC Plan Basics
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SECONDARY CONTAINMENT
REQUIREMENTS
• Tank secondary containment requires 110 percent of the volume
of the largest tank contained within the dike with the displacement
volumes of the tanks accounted for.
• Secondary containment needs to allows for additional freeboard
for containment of precipitation in the containment dikes.
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Secondary Containment
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Secondary Containment
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Drum Containment
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RACK SPILL PAD CONTAINMENT
• If transport truck makes hard connect to tank –
the tank has a “Rack” and must have spill pad
containment.
• Spill Pad containment must be large enough to
contain the largest compartment of the truck
unloading at the petroleum facility.
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Spill Pad Containment
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§112.3 PREPARE &
IMPLEMENT A PLAN
• The facility owner/operator must prepare a SPCC Plan:
• In writing
• In accordance with §112.7 & any other applicable
sections of 40 CFR part 112
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§112.3(c) MOBILE
FACILITIES • Onshore & offshore mobile facilities must prepare,
implement & maintain a Plan as required by the rule
• Amend & implement a Plan, if necessary to ensure compliance
with the rule, on or before 11/20/09
• Can be a general Plan; a new Plan is not required each time a
facilities moves to a new site
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§112.3(d) PE
CERTIFICATION
• A licensed PE must review & certify a Plan & technical
amendments
• The certification does not relieve the owner/operator of his
duty to prepare & fully implement a Plan
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PE “ATTESTATION”
• With certification, the PE attests that:
• PE is familiar with the rule requirements
• PE or his agent visited & examined the facility
• The Plan has been prepared in accordance with good
engineering practice, including the consideration of applicable
industry standards, & with the requirements of 40 CFR part 112
• PE allow flexibility in meeting many rules provisions by
providing equivalent environmental protection or developing
contingency plans.
• Procedures for required inspections & testing have been
established
• The Plan is adequate for the facility
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§112.3(e)(1) PLAN
REQUIREMENTS • Maintain a complete copy of the Plan:
• At the facility if it is attended at least 4 hours per day
• At the nearest field office if the facility is attended for less than 4
hours per day
• Have the Plan available to the RA for onsite review during
normal working hours
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PLAN REVIEW &
EVALUATION • Complete once every 5 years from the date facility becomes
subject to the rule
• If a facility was in operation on or before 8/16/2002, 5 years from
the date of your last review required by the rule
• Amend Plan within 6 months to include more effective
prevention & control technology
• Implement ASAP, but no later than 6 months of amendment
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DOCUMENTING PLAN
REVIEW
• Must document Plan review & evaluation
• Sign statement at beginning or end of Plan or in a log or an
appendix
• “I have completed review & evaluation of the SPCC Plan for
(name of facility) on (date), and will (will not) amend the Plan as a
result.”
• PE must certify any technical amendment to Plan
• Qualified Facilities exception
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Smaller Oil Storage Facilities
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§112.6 QUALIFIED FACILITY
PLAN REQUIREMENTS • Smaller oil storage facility that is eligible for streamlined regulatory
requirements
• Self-certified SPCC Plan instead of one reviewed & certified by a Professional Engineer
• Streamlined integrity testing & facility security requirements
• Must meet eligibility criteria to use alternative option
• EPA’s recent amendment would divide this group of facilities into tiers
• Requirements described here would apply to “Tier I” facilities
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§112.6 QUALIFIED FACILITY
PLAN REQUIREMENTS (CONT.)
• EPA’s recent amendment would divide this group
of facilities into tiers
• Requirements described here would apply to “Tier II”
facilities
• Additional relief would be provided to “Tier I”
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SELF-CERTIFICATION OPTION
FOR QUALIFIED FACILITIES • Allow facility owners that store <=10K oil & meet other
“qualifying” criteria to self-certify their SPCC Plans, in lieu of
review & certification by a PE
• “Qualifying” criteria –
• NO discharges for 3 years prior or since becoming subject to the
requirements
• Under this approach, owners may not deviate from any
requirements under §112.7(a)(2) (can’t use EE) & may not
make impracticability determinations under §112.7(d)
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REPORTABLE DISCHARGE
HISTORY • A single discharge of oil to navigable water or adjoining
shorelines exceeding 1,000 gallons OR,
• Two discharges to navigable water or adjoining shorelines
each exceeding 42 gallons within any 12 month period
• Count only the amount that reaches navigable water or
adjoining shorelines
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REPORTABLE DISCHARGE
HISTORY (CONT.) • Oil discharges resulting from natural disasters, acts of war,
or terrorism are not included
• Sabotage & vandalism are not beyond facilities control
• Self-certifying facilities do not automatically lose eligibility if
they have a reportable spill, the RA has the authority to
require a Plan amendment
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SELF-CERTIFICATION
• Owner/operator attests they are familiar with the rule & have
visited & examined the facility
• The Plan has been prepared in accordance with accepted &
sound industry practices & standards
• Procedures for required inspections & testing have been
established
• The facility meets the qualifying criteria
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SELF-CERTIFICATION
(CONT.) • The Plan does not deviate from rule requirements except as
allowed & as certified by a PE
• The Plan & staff responsible for implementing it have the full
approval of management & the o/o has committed the
necessary resources to fully implement the Plan
• The Plan is being fully implemented
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TECHNICAL AMENDMENTS
• May self-certify technical amendments as long as a PE has
not certified the portion being changed
• If a PE certified the affected portion of the Plan, then a PE
must certify the technical amendment
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Drum Containment
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Tank Containment
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TIER I SUMMARY
And a facility… Then the owner/operator of the facility… If a facility…
…has 10,000 gallons or less in aggregate aboveground oil storage capacity
…meets the oil discharge history criteria
…may prepare a self-certified SPCC Plan instead of one reviewed & certified by a Professional Engineer (PE)
…may meet tailored facility security & tank integrity inspection requirements without PE certification
…may prepare a Plan which includes PE-certified environmentally equivalent measures or impracticability determinations that would require PE certifications for only the portions dealing with environmental equivalence & impracticability determinations. The remaining portions of the Plan could be self-certified by the facility owner/operator
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ASSISTANCE, SERVICES &
PRODUCTS
• Brams Engineering Services– Assistance drafting SPCC plans
• Inspects and Prepares SPCC Plans
• Prepares Tier I SPCC Plans for Owner/Operator Self Certification
• Prepares Tier II SPCC Plans for Owner/Operators
• Designs Tank Containment Basins
• Responses to EPA Violation Letters
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U.S. EPA – Penalties & Fines
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What Does it take to fill out the Tier 1 Plan?
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QUESTIONS & CONTACT INFO
Martin Bonnell, PE Senior Civil Engineer
Brams Engineering, LLC 172 Spruce Drive
Apple Valley, MN 55124 952-261-9351
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Have you serviced your
Farm Policy for 2013
AgQuest Insurance is an Equal Opportunity Provider
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Major Components of a Farm Insurance Contract/Policy
Declaration Page
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Dwelling
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Other Structure
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Personal Property
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Loss of Use
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Scheduled Farm Property
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Unscheduled Farm Property
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Farm Structures
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Farm Liability
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Medical Coverage
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Concerns of an Insurance Contract
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Debris Removal
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Custom Farming
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CO-INSURANCE CLAUSE
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Farms Becoming Corporations
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Thank-you!
Contact Information Harvest Land: 800-245-5819
AgQuest: 877-626-7453
The full presentation will be available on HLC & AgQuest website’s.