2013 north atlantic hurricane seasonal forecast ray bell with thanks to joanne camp (met office)
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2013 North Atlantic hurricane seasonal forecast
Ray Bell with thanks to Joanne Camp (met office)
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TS has surface wind speeds > 17 m/s (39 mph)H > 33 m/s (74 mph)
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• 3 consecutive years of 19 TS.• Active hurricane period that began in 1995 averaged 15 TS, 8 H and 4 MH
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© Crown copyright Met Office
Met Office public forecast
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tropicalcyclone/seasonal/northatlantic2013
Slightly more active than normal
0.41
0.42
0.42
Jo Camp
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Method
• GloSEA5 (42 members)• ECMWF System 4 (41 members)
• A Simple tracking algorithm (mean sea level pressure based).
• TS, H and ACE calibrated with previous years (hindcasts)
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© Crown copyright Met Office
2013 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
• Statistical forecasts: CSU and TSR predict an active hurricane season
• Dynamical forecasts: ECMWF predict near-normal hurricane season.
Summary Table
S
S
D
D
Jo Camp
9
NOAAD
13-20 7-11 3-6
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© Crown copyright Met Office
ENSO forecast
ECMWF GloSea5
Neutral conditions during ASOJo Camp
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• CSU predict 72 % chance of MH landfallStatistical relation between seasons activity and landfalling in previous years.
• Land major hurricane landfall Hurricane Wilma 2005 (longest since 1900)
• NOAA – realtime doppler radar on Hurricane hunters which will be used in upgraded HWRF
Intensity forecast
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EPAC forecast
• below-normal hurricane season(11 - 16 TS) 15(5 – 8 H) 8(1 – 4 MH) 4
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CPAC forecast
• below-normal hurricane season(1 - 3 TS) 4-5
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© Crown copyright Met Office
Tropical Storms: Eastern and Western North Pacific June-November 2013
• Near-average numbers of tropical storms predicted in the Western and Eastern North Pacific
• Forecast skill low
Western Pacific Eastern Pacific