2013 florida legislative overview united way of miami-dade 2013 florida legislative preview february...
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2013 Florida Legislative Overview
UNITED WAY OF MIAMI-DADE
2013 FLORIDA LEGISLATIVE PREVIEW February 27, 2013
Presented by Ted Granger, President
United Way of Florida, Inc.
1
Money - Post War U.S. RecessionsPeak to Trough %
Length of Recession in
MonthsReal GDP
Industrial Production
Payroll Employment
2007 to 9-2009 23 -4.00% -17.88% -5.47%
2001 to 11-2001 8 -0.40% -5.80% -2.10%
1990 to 3-1991 8 -1.30% -4.30% -1.50%
1981 to 11-1982 16 -2.70% -10.30% -3.20%
1980 to 7-1980 6 -2.20% -6.90% -1.30%
1973 to 3-1975 16 -3.10% -12.80% -2.80%
1969 to 11-1970 11 0.00% -7.50% -1.40%
1960 to 2-1961 10 -1.60% -7.80% -2.30%
1957 to4-1958 8 -3.80% -12.70% -4.00%
1953 to 5-1954 10 -2.40% -9.10% -3.30%
1948 to 10-1949 11 -1.80% -7.70% -4.40%
Avg. for prev. recessions 10 -1.90% -8.50% -2.60%
22
Percent Job Losses in Post WWII Recessions, August
3Source: Calculated RISK Finance & Economics, September 2012
3
Florida Economy
PopulationPopulation
44
Florida Economy - Population
Source: Bureau of Economic & Business Research, UF, May 11, 20125 5
Florida Economy - Population
Source: Bureau of Economic & Business Research, UF, June 20116 6
Florida Economy - Population
Avg. Ann. Pop. Grwth318,000
77
Florida Economy – Population Growth by Age Group
8Source: Office of Economic & Demographic Research, December 2012
8
Florida Economy
ConstructionConstruction
Home SalesHome Sales
ForeclosuresForeclosures
99
Florida’s Long Recovery
Construction -384,000 jobs from 2007
+4,200 (1.3%) jobs Sept/Sept
2007 levels won’t return until 2031
10Source: University of Central Florida, August 2012; Associated General Contractors, November, 2012
10
Home Sales Continue ImprovingExisting Single-Family Homes – 11/2011-2012
+24.4% US - +14.5% 8 months consecutive increase
+14.1% - Median Sales Prices $154,000
+10.6% - Average Sales Price $223,301
Condo Sales +18.3% +20.2% - Median Sales Prices
11Source: Florida Realtors, December 2012; January 2013 11
Home Sales
12Source: Office of Economic & Demographic Research, December 2012 12
Florida ForeclosuresFlorida Foreclosure Rate
#1 in US 2012 1 Filing for every 312 Housing Units
US Rate = 1/706 #1 – Foreclosure filings in January
29,800 homes entered foreclosure July –December 2012
105K - foreclosures cleared from the court 98K – foreclosures started
December 31 – 371K pending foreclosures
13
Source: RealtyTrac & Office of the State Courts Administrator, February 2013
Florida ForeclosuresAverage Foreclosure Timeframe in Florida
2007 - 169 days 2012 - 861 days (about 2.5 years)
3rd longest in nation
But…Foreclosure Starts +24% Dec./Dec
Result on FL Budget
Flat/slight growth in property tax income.
14Source: Legislative Budget Commission, Long Range Financial Outlook, Fall 2012 14
Florida Foreclosures Ahead
38% of all residential loans in Florida are for
homes that are underwater.
1515
Source: Office of Economic & Demographic Research, December 2012
16Source: RealtyTrac LLC, August 2012
August 2012 Foreclosure Rate Heat Map
16
Florida Economy
TourismTourism
1717
Tourism Rocks!Total Tourism Spending (Tourism/Recreation Taxable Sales) 2002-2011: 2002 - $51.1 billion 2003 - $51.5 billion* 2004 - $57.1 billion 2005 - $62.0 billion 2006 - $65.0 billion 2007 - $65.5 billion 2008 - $65.2 billion 2009 - $60.9 billion 2010 - $62.7 billion 2011 - $67.2 billion
18Source: Visit Florida, December 2012
18
Tourism Rocks!Total State Sales Tax Revenues from Tourism 2002-2011:
2002 - $3.0 billion 2003 - $3.1 billion 2004 - $3.4 billion 2005 - $3.7 billion 2006 - $3.9 billion 2007 - $3.9 billion 2008 - $3.9 billion 2009 - $3.7 billion 2010 - $3.8 billion 2011 - $4.0 billion
1919
Source: Visit Florida, December 2012
Tourism Rocks!Number of Persons Directly Employed by Tourism Industry 2002-2011:
2002 - 862,900 2003 - 874,700 2004 - 920,700 2005 - 948,700 2006 - 964,700 2007 - 991,300 2008 - 1,007,000 2009 - 973,800 2010 - 974,700 2011 - 1,013,100
2020
Source: Visit Florida, December 2012
Tourism Rocks!
Quarter ending June 30, 2012 over 2nd quarter 2011
+1.3% overall 2.4M Foreign Visitors: +10% 18.8M domestic visitors: +0.3%
Tourism Jobs: +1.1% (11,300) to 1,041,900
Tourism-Related Taxable Sales: +8.8% ($31.5B)
21Source: Visit Florida, August 2012
21
Florida Unemployment
22Source: Office of Economic & Demographic Research, December 2012 22
Florida Unemployment
December 2012 Florida Unemployment 8% - lowest rate in more than four years (11/08). 7.8% - US Rate 749,000 Floridians unemployed
New jobs: Leisure and hospital industry lead the way:
+29,900 jobs (3.1% increase)
23Source: Department of Economic Opportunity, January 2013 23
National Jobs Lost & RecoveredU.S. Recession
Job LossesRegained
Jobs
Low-Wage ($7.69 - $13.83 / $15,995 - $28,766)
21% 58%
Mid-Wage ($13.84 - $21.13 / $28,787 - $43,950)
60% 22%
High-Wage ($21.14 - $54.54 / $43,971 - $113,443)
19% 20%
24Source: National Employment Law Project, The Low-Wage Recovery and Growing Inequality, August 2012.
24
Florida Budget
Florida BudgetFlorida Budget
2525
Florida Budget
Fiscal Cliff Deal: Good & Bad for Florida
Bad: 2010 SS payroll tax deduction expires - $6.5B
Temporarily reduced in 2010 (6.2% to 4.2%) 7.1 million Florida households seeing a tax
increase Median Florida household ($45,000) – +$900
taxes in 2013.
26
Source: Institute Economic Competitiveness at the Univ. of Central Florida, January 2013 2
6
Florida Budget
Fiscal Cliff Deal: Good & Bad for Florida
Good: Extended federal emergency UC program, due
to expire Jan. 1, for another year. $1.4 billion for Florida economy Long Term Unemployment
US – 40% FL – 50.6%
27
Source: Institute Economic Competitiveness at the Univ. of Central Florida, January 2013 2
7
Florida Budget
The SequesterThe Sequester
$85 billion in spending cuts
(2.4% of $3.6 trillion in federal spending)
28Source: The White House, February 2013.
28
Florida Budget
The Sequester: Florida Impacts -31,000 civilian DOD jobs furloughed (-$183.2m) -7,450 – children vaccinated (-$509,000) -2,700 Head Start Children -1,600 – subsidized child care children -$3.8 million – meals for seniors -$5 million – substance abuse grants -$54.5 million – primary & secondary education
2929
Source: The White House, February 2013.
Florida BudgetFlorida: Positive Debt Picture -$2B since 2010
$28.2B - $26.2B
AAA Bond Rating State Borrowing
2012 - $416M 2002-2010 - $2B annually (avg.)
Programs dependant on bonding: School construction &maintenance (57% of debt load) Transportation (27%) Florida Forever (10%)
30Source: Office of the Chief Financial Officer, December 2012
30
General Revenue Outlook ($ millions) FY 2011-12 FY 2012-13
Total Funds Available 25,216.00 26,070.10
Total Estimated Expenditures
27,726.70 31,119.30
Ending Balance -2,510.70 -5,049.20
31Source: Legislative Budget Commission, September 2011
31
General Revenue Outlook ($ millions) FY 2013-
14*FY 2014-
15FY 2015-
16
Total Funds Available**
27,853.7 28,306.5 29,541.3
Total Estimated Expenditures
27,416.9 27,253.0 27,947.3
Ending Balance 436.8 53.5 594.0
32
•Updated December, 2012•All GR – recurring, nonrecurring, roll-over
Source: Legislative Budget Commission, Fall 2012 Report 32
No Budget Shortfall???
2013-2014 Budget: “Flat”
Flat is good!
Budget surplus: first in 5 years3333
Florida GR History
34Source: Office of Economic & Demographic Research, December 2012 34
Florida GR Budget 2012-2013
Source: The Florida Legislature353
5
Florida GR Budget 2012-2013Program Area (Section of General
Appropriations Act) Dollars Percent
Education 12,689.5 51.2%
Human Services 7,673.1 31.0%
Judicial Branch 331.4 1.3%
Criminal Justice and Corrections 3,136.0 12.7%
Natural Resources/ Environment/ Growth Mgmt./ Transportation
225.6 0.9%
General Government 710.8 2.9%
Total 24,766.5 100.0%
Source: The Florida Legislature363
6
Florida Budget 2012-2013
Source: The Florida Legislature373
7
Florida Budget 2012-2013Program Area (Section of General Appropriations Act) Dollars Percent
Education 20,286.4 29.0%
Human Services 29,912.8 42.7%
Judicial Branch 446.2 0.6%
Criminal Justice and Corrections 4,191.2 6.0%
Natural Resources/ Environment/ Growth Mgmt./ Transportation 11,329.8 16.2%
General Government 3,870.2 5.5%
Total 70,036.7 100%
Source: The Florida Legislature383
8
Florida GR Revenue Sources
Source: FL Revenue Estimating Conf.; 2012 Florida Tax Handbook393
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2013 Legislative Session Overview
Thanks!Thanks!
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